Investment Themes for 2021

Posted On January 10, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Portfolio Management /

Today we are going to discuss our top Investment Themes for 2021. I’ve stated that predictions are generally worthless, and 2020 certainly proved this point. 12 months ago, no one anticipated the massive impact of the Coronavirus. And the lightning speed of the stock market recovery remains shocking.

From its highs in February, US Stocks fell 35% to March 23. The recovery saw a 65% rally, with the S&P 500 Index ending the year up 17.6%. It was a mind-boggling year for investors, but I think we can count our blessings. This was the fastest Bear Market and recovery in history. Compared to the previous two Crashes, investors felt compelled to stay the course this year. And this proved wise.

(Here’s what I wrote to investors on March 21: Stock Crash Pattern.)

So, where do we go from here? Will 2021 unwind all the gains of 2020? My philosophy remains that we do not need to predict market movements or time the market to be successful. As a long-term investor, my approach to tactical investing is based on over-rebalancing. Think of rebalancing – trimming categories which rose (and became expensive) and adding to what became cheap. We overweight the assets which are cheaper.

We remain fully invested in our target allocation, but the weighting of funds can change from year to year. In some years, we own assets which lag other categories. That’s okay. That’s part of being a diversified investor. We want to avoid chasing performance.

Trades for 2021

US large cap growth has become very expensive. For 2021, we are shifting some of our large cap growth to a mid cap growth fund. The valuations there are not as elevated.
US small cap appears to have turned. Q4 of 2020 was the best quarter for small cap in 30 years. We added to small cap in our Growth and Aggressive models.
Emerging Markets have a high expected long-term return. We remain overweight in EM.
Value stocks lagged growth names again in 2020. (Growth stocks performance was highly concentrated in a small number of tech stocks such as Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla.) We are committed to our Value Funds and believe that they are compelling today.
Bond yields fell in 2020 to all-time lows. The US Aggregate Bond Index had a return of 7.4%, but most of that was from prices increasing. Less than 2% came from yield. So, we finished 2020 with terrible yields – less than 1% on a 10-year Treasury bond.
Yields were up in the first week of 2021, and bond investors are seeing falling prices. We are positioned towards the short-end of the yield curve and want to avoid chasing high yield today.
Fixed Annuities remain a good substitute for CDs and Bonds for investors who don’t need liquidity. We can get a 5-year annuity at 3.0%.
There are relative values within municipal bonds and Emerging Markets debt. Other than that, we expect very low returns from bonds. Own them for diversification. They provide ballast if your stocks are down and give you the ability to rebalance.
We trimmed some short-term bonds and added to Preferred Stocks. Although many are priced at par today, we can get yields of 4-6%. This is an attractive middle ground between the volatility of stocks and the 0-1% yields of bonds.
Both stocks and bonds are at all-time highs right now, and that makes alternatives compelling. In addition to Preferred Stocks, we have positions in Convertible Bonds and a Hedge Fund Strategy mutual fund.

Adding Value

We certainly hope markets will rise in 2021, but there’s no guarantee that will happen. I can say that we added value in 2020 in three other ways:

In March, we harvested losses in taxable accounts. For example, we sold one large cap ETF and immediately replaced it with a different large cap ETF. Losses will offset capital gains distributions and will carry forward indefinitely.
We rebalanced in March, trimming bonds and buying stock ETFs which were down. These trades proved profitable, although they didn’t feel so good when the market was crashing.
We stayed the course throughout the year. Selling during a panic like March would have been disastrous. We believe that planning and behavior are fundamental to success.

Our investment themes for 2021 are not predictions. We can’t control what the market will do. Our focus is to think long-term, stay diversified, and keep costs and taxes down. Still, our portfolio models are not static. We make changes to the weightings of our Core positions based on their relative valuations. And we add or remove Satellite positions that are attractive for the current environment.

Investments are a tool to grow your wealth and achieve your financial and life goals. While I enjoy discussing investments, more of my conversations with clients are around their objectives and making sure they are on track. And that’s how it should be.

Behind the scenes, a lot of research, thought, and analysis goes into our investment management decisions. If you’d like to ask about your portfolio and how we invest, please give me a call.

Questions To Ask A Financial Advisor

Posted On October 20, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning /

I recently saw an article on 10 Questions to Ask a Financial Advisor, as a way to interview prospective advisors. The article is on point, and I hope that future clients will ask me these questions. Doing so will enable them to understand my process and recognize the value I can provide. Let me save you the time by providing my answers here.

1. Are you a Fiduciary?

Yes, I am a Fiduciary. I am legally required to place client interests ahead of my own. As an independent Registered Investment Advisor, I am not tied to any single company or product. My goal is to do the best I can to help every client.

2. How do you get paid?

On portfolios above $250,000, the asset fee is 1% a year. This is charged at the beginning of each quarter, at 0.25%. For clients who just want a financial planning engagement (without $250,000 in investments), the quarterly cost is $1250. My clients know exactly how much they pay me and have the right to leave at any time if they are unsatisfied. By charging an annual fee on the value of your portfolio, our incentives are aligned. If your account goes up, I get paid a bit more. And if your account goes down, I make less. I think this is mutually beneficial and creates accountability. My goal is to have a long-term relationship with each client.

Read more: The Price of Financial Advice

3. What are my all-in costs?

Aside from the fee described above, I do not charge any other fees, planning charges, or receive investment commissions. The core of our portfolios are low-cost funds from companies like Vanguard, iShares, and SPDRs. We build portfolio models in-house, so you will never be charged an outside management fee or “wrap” fee. Some other firms will charge you $2,000 for an initial plan, followed by a 1 to 1.5% management fee, and then outsource your portfolio to someone else who will ding you another 1% to manage your investments! Our focus is on keeping your investment costs low.

4. What are your qualifications?

I hold the Certified Financial Planner (CFP) and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designations. I received a Certificate in Financial Planning from Boston University. Since 2004, I have been a full-time financial advisor. Before that, I taught at several colleges and approach my practice as an educator. My academic background includes a Bachelors degree from Oberlin College, and a Masters degree and Doctorate in music from the University of Rochester.

You should also look up an advisor on the SEC’s Investment Advisor Public Disclosure website to check if they have any disciplinary record, bankruptcies, or legal settlements. I do not.

5. How will our relationship work?

Planning comes first. A financial plan can help you see your goals clearly and develop concrete steps to achieve them. Investment policy is the product of financial planning so it has to be second. I work with a small group of families so I can do my best work and provide a high level of service. Financial planning is a long-term process, not a once and done event.

We begin with an in-depth Discovery Meeting to learn both the quantitative details about your financial situation as well as the qualitative goals, needs, and preferences you have for your money and your life. We will gather statements, tax returns, and other documents to analyze. All clients will complete a Finametrica Risk Profile and we will go over the results together. Based on your objectives, we use a modular planning process to address the areas which are most important and relevant to your situation.

In the first year, we have a lot of work to do in establishing your plan. Starting in year two, we will meet twice a year for monitoring and ongoing planning. I encourage clients to reach out to me whenever they have questions about financial topics or if their situation changes.

6. What’s your investment philosophy?

Investors are best served by a passive, long-term investment strategy. Our role is to manage a diversified, target asset allocation for buy and hold investors. We create and manage a series of Portfolio Models to meet the differing needs and risk preferences of our clients.

Within each Portfolio Model, we employ a Core + Satellite investment strategy. Core holdings are low-cost Exchange Traded Funds, in primary categories such as US Large Cap Stocks, US Small Cap Stocks, International Developed Equities, Investment Grade Bonds, and Cash. Satellite holdings are more tactical and may vary from year to year depending on their relative value and attractiveness. Satellite positions may include ETFs, mutual funds, or alternative investments, such as Emerging Markets, Real Estate, Commodities, Preferred Stocks, Convertible Bonds, Floating Rate Income, or other categories or strategies.

We do not believe that we can add value through market timing, picking individual stocks, sector rotation, or speculative strategies. We see little evidence that such strategies are beneficial for investors, especially when we consider the additional risks associated with them.

7. What asset allocation will you use?

Our models include the target allocations below, to be determined by your situation. Each model typically has 10-15 Exchange Traded Funds or Mutual Funds and is diversified across thousands of securities.

Ultra-Equity: 100% Equity / 0% Fixed Income
Aggressive: 85% Equity / 15% Fixed Income
Growth: 70% Equity / 30% Fixed Income
Moderate: 60% Equity / 40% Fixed Income
Balanced: 50% Equity / 50% Fixed Income
Conservative: 35% Equity / 65% Fixed Income

8. What investment benchmarks do you use?

We use two benchmarks: for stocks, the MSCI World Index Total Return, and for fixed income, the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index.

9. Who is your custodian?

TD Ameritrade Institutional will hold your accounts. Charles Schwab has acquired TD Ameritrade, and the two firms are in the process of combining over the next 18-36 months. I am very comfortable with both firms and their long-standing commitment to working with Independent advisors and their clients.

10. What tax hit do I face if I invest with you?

We will look at your individual situation and carefully consider taxes in our transfers, trades, and investment strategy. Working with high-net worth families, we aim for tax‐efficiency through the implementation of asset location, low‐turnover funds, tax loss harvesting, and tax‐favorable investment vehicles. We rebalance portfolios typically once a year, to avoid creating short-term capital gains.

Have other questions for me? Drop me a note! I’m happy to chat.

Do You Need Bonds?

Posted On September 6, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Portfolio Management /

With ultra low yields today, more investors are asking if you really need to have bonds in your portfolio. It’s going to depend on your objectives for your overall plan. First, let’s take a look at expected returns and how this impacts your allocation.

The primary role of bonds is to reduce the risk of a stock portfolio. Bonds fluctuate a lot less and most are relatively low risk. The trade-off is that they have a lot lower return than stocks. Of course, the stock market has a negative return in approximately one of every five or so years. From 1950 through 2019, 15 of 70 years had a negative return in the S&P 500 Index. Bonds are more consistent, and they can help smooth out your overall returns. In years when stocks are down, you can rebalance by selling some bonds and buying stocks.

The more bonds you have, the more you reduce stock risk, but also the more you probably lower your long-term returns. With the 10-year Treasury bond yielding only 0.721% this week, bonds offer almost no return on their own. Bonds used to offer safety and income, but today, you are really only owning them just for safety.

Portfolio Asset Allocation

We describe a portfolio by the percentage it has in stocks versus bonds. A 70/30 portfolio, for example, has 70% stocks and 30% bonds. Our asset allocation models target different levels of stock and bond exposure:

Ultra Equity (100% Equity)
Aggressive (85/15)
Growth (70/30)
Moderate (60/40)
Balanced (50/50)
Conservative (35/65)

Expected Returns

Next, let’s consider what Vanguard projects for the next 10 years for annualized asset returns, as of June 2020:

US Equities: 5.5% to 7.5%
International Equities: 8.5% to 10.5%
US Aggregate Bond Market: 0.9% to 1.9%

Let’s calculate hypothetical portfolio returns using these assumptions. If we take the midpoint of stock projected returns, we have 6.5% for US Stocks and 9.5% for International Stocks. If we invest equally in both, we’d have an 8% return. For our bond return, we will take the midpoint of 1.4%. Now, here’s a simple blend of those expected returns when we combine them in a portfolio.

Portfolio	Projected 10 Year Return
100% Equities	8.00%
90% Equities / 10% Bonds	7.34%
80% Equities / 20% Bonds	6.68%
70% Equities / 30% Bonds	6.02%
60% Equities / 40% Bonds	5.36%
50% Equities / 50% Bonds	4.70%
40% Equities / 60% Bonds	4.04%
30% Equities / 70% Bonds	3.38%
20% Equities / 80% Bonds	2.72%
10% Equities / 90% Bonds	2.06%
100% Bonds	1.40%

If you simply want the highest return without regard to volatility in a portfolio, you could invest 100% into stocks. Moreover, any addition of bonds should reduce your long-term returns. Of course, this assumes that returns are simply linear. In a real portfolio, there would be up years and down years in stocks. That’s when you would rebalance, which could be beneficial.

For young investors, in their 20’s, 30’s, or 40’s, you probably should be more aggressive in your asset allocation. For some, it may even make sense to be 100% in stocks. If you have 20 or more years to retirement, and aren’t scared of stock market fluctuations, being aggressive is likely going to offer the highest return.

The 10-year expected return of stocks is not bad, 8% combined today. That’s a little bit lower than the historical averages, but still an attractive return. Bond returns, however, are expected to be very weak. Consequently, 60/40, 50/50, and more conservative portfolios, are expected to have much lower projected returns.

Retirement Planning and Your Need for Bonds

For those closer to retirement, low yields are a challenge. You want to have less volatility but also want good returns. If you are within five years of retirement, you probably want to reduce the risk of a stock market crash hurting your retirement income. Now, if the hypothetical 8% stock returns were guaranteed, our decision would be easy. But getting out of bonds today, with the market at an all time high, seems too risky. This week has certainly been a reminder that stocks are volatile.

I think most pre-retirees will want to keep their current allocation through their retirement date. After that, they may want to consider gradually reducing their bond exposure by selling bonds. There is evidence that this strategy, The Rising Equity Glidepath, is a beneficial way to access retirement withdrawals. It allows retirees to benefit from the higher expected return of stocks, while reducing their risks in the crucial 5-10 years right before and at the beginning of retirement.

Some retirees have a high risk capacity if they have ample sources of income and significant assets. If their time horizon is focused on their children or grandchildren, they can also consider a more aggressive allocation.

We want to calculate your asset mix individually. I wanted to show you what the blend of stocks and bonds is projected to return over the next decade. We’ve had strong returns from fixed income in recent years because falling interest rates push up bond prices. Going forward, it looks like bond returns are going to be quite low. We do have to consider these projected returns when making allocation decisions.

If you’re looking for advice on managing your investment portfolio today, let’s talk. Our planning process will help you address these questions and have a better understanding of your options.