Home Mortgage Strategies

Posted On December 13, 2023 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning /

With the 30 year mortgage rate at 7.50% today, it’s time we revisit home mortgage strategies. Loving your home is an undeniable part of the Good Life. In the past couple of months, we’ve had several clients who have moved or looked at buying a second home.

Understandably, the 7.5% mortgage rate is giving many people anxiety about this decision. And that is exactly what the Federal Reserve wants. To slow housing inflation, they needed to drive out buyers and reduce speculation to cool an overheated market. With home affordability problems in many areas, it may be a good thing to slow the rapidly rising house prices of recent years.

In the past, we might have seen real estate prices plummet given how quickly the Fed has raised interest rates. Prices today are not dropping, but at least the prices have stabilized and are no longer growing at double digit rates. We have an under-supply of housing, and there is relatively little construction of single family homes occurring, given the nationwide need. What is unique for 2023 is that sellers are disappearing, unwilling to move out of a home with a 3% mortgage (you will see why, below). There were 300,000 fewer homes on the market in September 2023 compared to one year earlier. Inventory remains very thin and that is why prices do not appear likely to drop anytime soon.

2023 versus 2021

We’re going to look through some mortgage examples and share some of the numbers that are typical today. We will go over a couple of home mortgage strategies that still make sense today. And we will revisit our philosophy and beliefs about home ownership.

The median home price was recently $412,000. For our examples, we are rounding that to $400,000 and putting down 20%, or $80,000, for a mortgage of $320,000. With a 7.5% 30-year mortgage, your monthly payment including taxes and insurance would be around $2,671 depending on your location.

For the rest of our examples, we are going to strip our taxes and insurance from the monthly costs and only look at the principal and interest payments. Your mortgage-only payment would be $2,237.49 a month. Over 30 years, you will pay a total of $805,495.11, in payments. That will repay your $320,000 loan plus $485,495.11 in interest payments. You will, in effect, be paying 150% more in interest than you borrowed. Borrow $320 thousand, pay back $805 thousand. It is just obscene, although not without precedent. Your parents may have had a similar mortgage rate at some point in the previous century.

Staying Put

If you had made the same purchase in 2021 with a 3% mortgage, or refinanced, it is a very different story. Your principal/interest payment would have been only $1349.13 a month, almost $900 less a month. Over 30 years, you would pay total payments of $485,687.85. That is only $165,687.85 in interest plus $320,000 in principal. And it seems much nicer to know that you are primarily paying principal and the interest payments are much less.

If you have that 3% mortgage, you probably don’t want to move to a new house. The 7.5% rates are keeping you out of the market, which again, is just as the Fed wants. There’s no doubt it can be preferable to stay put and enjoy your low mortgage rate. A few thoughts about your 3% mortgage:

Don’t send additional payments to a 3% mortgage. There are money markets, CDs, and government bonds yielding 5-6% today. Only send the minimum mortgage payment. Talk to me if you have extra cash.
Will it cash-flow? Rather than selling, have you considered turning your house into a rental or Airbnb? It is a lot of work and not for everyone. However, if you have a 3% mortgage, you have a much better possibility to turn a profit than a new investor who is going to have a 7.5% mortgage (or higher).
Downsize. If you have built a lot of equity into your home and have more space than you need, I would not hesitate to downsize. If you can take your tax-free gains and buy a small house for cash, this can improve your retirement readiness. Having no mortgage at all can be very freeing.

Jump Starting Your Amortization

Back to our $320,000 mortgage at 7.5%. You’ve just bought this house and now have a monthly payment of $2,237.49. In the first month, that payment includes $2,000.00 in interest and only $237.49 in principal. In the second month, your payment would consist of $1998.52 in interest and $238.97 principal. These high interest rates have a horrible, ugly amortization schedule. Your initial years of payments are primarily interest and you hardly make a dent on your principal.

After three years of payments, you will have made $80,550 in mortgage payments, but only paid $9,555 in principal. If you go to move, you would still owe $310,455 on the mortgage. All this money spent on interest is gone.

Now, let’s take a look at what would happen if you could make a one-time extra payment of $10,000 in the first month. This is probably the last thing any new homeowner is thinking of doing, but let’s run the numbers and talk about why it might be a good idea.

That one early payment of $10,000 will reduce your loan by 37 months, saving you $73,452 in interest over the life of the loan. And it jump starts your amortization, shifting $62 from interest payments to principal payments every month.

Mortgage Strategies:

If you have a 7.5% mortgage, try to make prepayments as early as you can. This can dramatically shorten your loan. Every dollar of principal will save you a multiple of interest in the years ahead.
Evaluate your cash levels. Keeping a ton of money in the bank at 0% while you have a 7.5% loan isn’t helping. Make those prepayments now and avoid excess cash. Here is a Prepayment Calculator to estimate your situation.

15-Year Mortgage

I’ve long been a fan of the 15-year mortgage and have written about it previously. I’ve used 15-year mortgages previously on primary residences and been very happy with the decision.

Back to our example, we buy a $400,000 house and put down $80,000 leaving us with a $320,000 mortgage. With a 15-year mortgage, the interest rate today is 6.75% rather than 7.50% for the 30-year. Yes, the 15-year mortgage is going to be more expensive. It will be $2,831.71 a month, versus $2,237.49 for a 30-year. For less than $600 extra per month, you can cut your mortgage in half, from 30 years to 15 years. I like that, and it will help reduce expenses for retirement.

The 15 year mortgage also allows you to more rapidly build equity in the house, with more of each payment going towards principal. Remember for the 30-year, the first payment of $2,237.49 consisted of $2,000 in interest and $237.49 principal. With the 15-year, your first payment of $2,831.71 consists of $1,800 in interest and $1,031.71 of principal. I prefer this quicker amortization – the payment is $600 more, but $800 more is going towards principal.

After 15 years, you own a house outright with a 15-year mortgage. You might think that after 15-years, you would be halfway through a 30-year mortgage, but that isn’t the case. You would still have a balance of $241,365 of your original $320,000 loan. In the first 15 years, you paid less than 25% of the principal, and will pay 75% in the second 15-years. So, if you decide to move after 15 years on a 30-year mortgage, you have not accumulated a lot of equity to put towards the next home.

Home Perspectives

No doubt that a home is a key to building wealth. Oh no, I don’t mean that a home is a good investment. Not at all. Rather, a home is an expense, your largest liability. Choose poorly and a house can consume all your income and leave nothing left to save and invest. Living beneath your means remains the way to accumulate wealth. Consider House Hacking if you really want to minimize your expenses. So, a few more thoughts, most of which I have shared previously.

Don’t wait for a housing crash. The supply of homes may be well under the demand for many years. I think we are unlikely to have a repeat of the 2008 housing sell-off, at least on the nationwide level. You can buy now, and potentially refinance in a couple of years if interest rates drop. But we also might see house prices rise again with lower interest rates as houses become more affordable. So, waiting for lower house prices or lower mortgage rates is not guaranteed to be beneficial. If you can find a great long-term home today, maybe it still makes sense long-term.
Renting has become more attractive. In most of the country, renting is now much cheaper than buying. Renting gives you fixed expenses, few surprise repair costs, and the flexibility to move. There is too much pressure to own a home in the US. For many people, renting is preferable, especially if you plan to be there for less than 5-10 years.
Your home is not an investment. Over the long-term, house prices only have done a little better than inflation. And that statistic is highly misleading because it doesn’t account for expenses. Don’t buy a home hoping for substantial appreciation. Buy it as a place to live and for your family.
Tax benefits. Sorry, most people are not getting a tax benefit from their homes anymore. And yet, I still see realtors talking about tax benefits. The standard deduction for 2024 will be $14,600, or $29,200 for a married couple. Very few people will actually have enough in mortgage interest and property taxes to take an itemized deduction. Also, there are caps on what you can deduct: State and Local taxes up to $10,000 and interest only up to $750,000 of a mortgage. Most of my clients used to itemize before 2017 and almost none of them do today.

Financial Planning

Financial Planning is more than just investing well, and that is why we talk about things like Home Mortgage Strategies. The 7.5% mortgage rates are hurting home affordability. If you have to buy a house, understand what your amortization looks like and try to be sure to refi if you can save one percent or more. Back in 2020, I saw people who were looking at paying off a 3% mortgage because cash yields were so low. We discussed the opportunity cost of paying off a mortgage, and that still applies today. Unfortunately now in 2023, the expected 10-year return of stocks have not changed as much as mortgage rates have, and so today the weight of leverage at 7.5% is too great to ignore.

If you are thinking about moving, carefully consider the home mortgage strategies we discussed. Staying put can make sense. If you have an expensive mortgage, consider making prepayments in the early years. If you can afford it, choose a 15-year mortgage. I worry a lot about housing because it has become so much more expensive that people risk being House Rich and Cash Poor. And then, there is nothing left to invest. A home is often the biggest purchase of your life, so choose carefully! Think about how will this help to maximize your future net worth.

Financial Strategies for Low Rates

Posted On August 6, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning /

Opportunities for a Low Yield World, Part 3

Today’s low rates are challenging for investors and may require changes not just to your investment portfolio, but also your overall financial strategies. In Part 1 of this series, we looked at the potential of rising defaults in high yield bonds and why it’s problematic to buy high yield bonds. Then in Part 2, we looked at four concrete ways to increase your yield today without radically changing your risk profile.

For Part 3, we looking at the broader ramifications of low interest rates on financial planning. My goal is always to explain and educate, but most importantly, to offer tangible solutions. Even in a crisis, there are opportunities.

But before we get into specific financial planning strategies, let’s consider two important points. First, low interest rates penalize savers. But low rates help borrowers. So, this is a great time to be a borrower, especially if you can lock in a low rate for 15, 20, or 30 years. Hopefully the current crisis will be short-lived, but borrowing at these low rates could be beneficial for decades to come.

Second, we should consider inflation. Bonds may be earning only 1%, but if inflation is zero, you would still have a real return of 1%. Your purchasing power is growing by 1%. Now, if bonds were yielding 6% and inflation was 5%, your real return would be the same, just 1%. While real returns are indeed quite low today, inflation is also below the historic average. So, your real returns aren’t as bad as they might appear.

Now, here are nine specific financial strategies to use today’s low rates to improve your situation.

Borrow for Appreciation

1) Refinance Mortgage. This is a great time to refinance your mortgage and lock in a low rate. Try to avoid lengthening the term of your loan and instead use low rates to pay off your mortgage sooner. If you can save 1% or more and plan to be in your home for several years, it will probably make sense to refi. I would be careful, however, of using low rates to buy the most expensive home possible. A home is largely an expense, rather than a great investment. Even better: use low rates to buy new investment properties. If you can borrow money to buy a business, investment property, or other appreciating asset, money is the cheapest it has ever been. Think long-term today!

2) Pay down debt. As long as you have a good emergency fund and a stable job, how much additional cash do you need? If you have student loans, a mortgage, car loans, or especially credit card debt, maybe it makes more sense to pay down your high-interest debt. Especially, debt that is not tied to an appreciating asset. Paying down 5% loans with cash earning 0% will save you interest costs.

Portfolio Adjustments

3) Reallocate away from bonds. With the 10-Year Treasury yielding under 1%, a lot of investment grade bonds and funds are going to have piddling returns over the next decade. Unless you really need to be defensive (maybe you are 5 years from retirement), having 40-50% earning 1% will likely be a drag on your portfolio. I have no idea what the stock market will do over the next 12-24 months. But, I do believe that a 90% equity allocation will probably outperform a 50% equity allocation over the next 30 years. Not everyone should take on more risk, but young people should invest for growth. The historical returns of a 60/40 portfolio are pretty much out the window with today’s low rates.

4) Alternative assets start to look more attractive when bonds are yielding 1%. Perhaps a 50% equity/30% alternative/20% bond portfolio could provide more return with less risk than a 60% equity/40% bond portfolio.

Retirement under Low Rates

5) Delay Social Security for 8% gains. When you delay your Social Security starting date, you can increase your monthly benefit by 8% a year (from age 66 to 70). Where else can you get a guaranteed 8% return today? No where. It may be better to spend down your bonds earning 1% from 62 or 66 until age 70 for the increase in SS benefits. The lower the rate of return from your portfolio, the more valuable the 8% Social Security increase becomes.

6) Take a pension, not a lump sum. If you have a pension from your employer, should you take the monthly payments or a lump sum? The answer will depend, in part, on your rate of return if you invest the lump sum option. Pension benefits have stayed up, but interest rates have moved down, which means that the pension is on the hook for very expensive benefits now. Companies are sweating this. But for a participant, it is tougher today to assume that you can do better by taking the lump sum. If your goal is lifetime income for you and your spouse, let’s run the numbers before making this decision. (We will also want to consider the credit quality of your Pension, its funded status, and your health and longevity profile.)

7) Immediate annuity. You can try to fund your retirement with bond income, but that’s more difficult with low interest rates. Immediate annuity payouts have not declined as much. So today, they are relatively attractive compared to bonds and eliminate the risk of outliving your money. With bonds, you have only two options under low rates: decrease the payout to yourself or start eating into your principal.

Estate Planning for Wealth Transfer

8) Trust Planning and intra-family loans. The Applicable Federal Rate and the 7520 rate are the lowest they have ever been. These low rates create opportunities for advanced financial strategies in estates and trusts. Intra-family loans: if you want to loan money to children or grandchildren for a mortgage, to buy your business, or to buy life insurance on your life, the interest rate required by the IRS is presently only 1.15%, for loans over 9 years.

9) Grantor Retained Annuity Trust. This is an irrevocable trust, which will shift assets outside of your lifetime gift and estate exemption. As the grantor, you receive income from the GRAT, and the remainder goes to your heirs (outside of your estate). The GRAT assumes the current 7520 rate of 0.80%, which is a low hurdle to beat. If your GRAT can do better than 0.80%, the heirs benefit.

Why do this Estate Planning now? The 2020 Estate Tax exemption of $11.58 million is set to sunset and revert to $5.49 million in 2026. If you are above these amounts, now is a great time to plan ahead. Placing assets into a GRAT now would remove their future growth from your estate. So, if you have assets which you think are undervalued today or which you expect will have significant growth going forward, removing them from your estate today could save tremendous future estate taxes for your heirs.

Low interest rates are problematic for savers and for bond holders, but also an opportunity for different financial strategies. Would some of these nine strategies enable you to benefit from low interest rates? I’m here to help you uncover ideas you haven’t considered, examine if they might be useful for you, and implement them effectively. Let’s take a look at your liabilities, your portfolio, your retirement income, and your estate goals and create a comprehensive plan for you.

Tax Comparison of 15 and 30 Year Mortgages

Posted On November 16, 2015 By Admin In Financial Planning / 1 Comment

I received a tremendous response from readers about last week’s article comparing 15 and 30 year mortgages (read it here). A number of readers astutely asked how the mortgage interest tax deduction would impact the decision of choosing between the 15 and 30 year note. Here is your answer!

For our example, we are looking at buying a $250,000 home, putting 20% down and assuming a mortgage of $200,000. At today’s interest rates, we’d be choosing between a 15 year mortgage at 3.00% or a 30-year at 3.75%. Here are the monthly payments, not including insurance or property taxes.

15 Year Mortgage @ 3.00%	30 Year Mortgage @ 3.75%
payment $1381.16	payment $926.23
	difference = $454.93

Over the full term of the mortgages, you will pay the following amounts of principal and interest:

15 Year Mortgage @ 3.00%	30 Year Mortgage @ 3.75%
principal $200,000.00	principal $200,000.00
interest $48,609.39	interest $133,443.23
total payments $248,609.39	total payments $333,443.23

You will pay a significantly higher amount of interest over the life of a 30 year mortgage. The interest payment of $133,443.23 increases your total payments by 67% over the amount you have borrowed. And that’s at today’s rock bottom mortgage rates! I should point out that above 5.325%, the interest portion on a 30 year mortgage exceeds the original principal. In other words, the interest would double your cost from $200,000 to $400,000.

You can deduct the mortgage interest expense from your taxes, but the amount of the benefit you will receive depends on your marginal federal income tax rate. Here is the value of the tax benefit for six tax brackets.

15 Year Mortgage @ 3.00%	30 Year Mortgage @ 3.75%
interest $48,609.39	interest $133,443.23
15%: $7,291.41	15%: $20,016.48
25%: $12,152.35	25%: $33,360.81
28%: $13,610.63	28%: $37,364.10
33%: $16,041.10	33%: $44,036.27
35%: $17,013.29	35%: $46,705.13
39.6% $19.249.32	39.6%: $52,843.52

Obviously, the 30 year mortgage provides much higher tax deductions, although they are spread over twice as long as the 15 year mortgage. If we subtract the tax savings from the total payments of the mortgage, we end up with the following costs per tax bracket.

Total Cost, after the tax savings

15 Year Mortgage @ 3.00%	30 Year Mortgage @ 3.75%
15%: $241,317.98	15%: $313,426.75
25%: $236,457.04	25%: $300,082.42
28%: $234,998.76	28%: $296,079.13
33%: $232,568.29	33%: $289,406.96
35%: $231,596.10	35%: $286,738.10
39.6%: $229,360.07	39.6%: $280,599.71

It should not be a surprise that even though the 30-year mortgage provides higher tax deductions, that it is still more expensive than a 15-year mortgage, even when we consider it on an after-tax basis.

For most Americans, the actual tax benefit they will receive is much, much less than described above. That’s because in order to deduct mortgage interest, taxpayers have to itemize their tax return and forgo the standard deduction. As a reminder, itemized deductions also include state and local taxes, casualty, theft, and gambling losses, health expenses over 10% of AGI, and charitable contributions.

For 2015, the standard deduction is $6,300 for single taxpayers and $12,600 for married couples filing jointly. So, if you are a married couple and your itemized deductions total $13,000, you’re actually only receiving $400 more in deductions than if you had no mortgage at all and claimed the standard deduction. And of course, if your itemized deductions fall below $12,600, you would take the standard deduction and you would not be getting any tax savings from the mortgage whatsoever.

While the mortgage interest deduction is very popular with the public, economists dislike the policy because it is a regressive tax benefit. It largely helps those with a big mortgage and a high income. For many middle class taxpayers, the tax benefits of mortgage interest is a red herring. With our example of 3.75% on a $200,000 mortgage, even in the first year, the interest is only $7,437. That’s well under the standard deduction of $12,600 for a married couple, and the interest expense will drop in each subsequent year.

Compare that to someone who takes out a $1 million mortgage: their first year interest deduction would be $37,186 on a 30 year note. Simply looking at the amount of the mortgage interest will not determine how much tax savings you will actually reap, without looking at your other deductions, and comparing these amounts to the standard deduction.

Even if you are one of those high earners with a substantial mortgage, you have another problem: your itemized deductions can be reduced under the so-called “Pease limitations”. These limitations were reintroduced in 2013. For 2015, itemized deductions are phased out for tax payers making over $258,250 (single) or $309,900 (married).

Bottom line: If your mortgage is modest, your interest deduction may not be more than your standard deduction. And if you are a high earner, you are likely to have your deductions reduced. All of which means that the tax benefit of real estate is being highly overvalued by most calculations. There is a substantial floor and ceiling on the mortgage interest deduction and it provides no benefit for taxpayers who are below or above those thresholds.

Ceiling: Pease limits on tax payers making over $258,250 (single) or $309,900 (married).
Middle: receive a tax benefit between these two levels.
Floor: no benefit on deductions below the standard deduction of $6,300 (single) or $12,600 (married).

The 15 Year Mortgage: Myth and Reality

Posted On November 9, 2015 By Admin In Financial Planning /

Everyone seems to be talking about Real Estate again. This month, I sat with three friends, and remarkably, all three were looking at moving and buying a new house. Real Estate is hot right now in Dallas, and almost everywhere else, too. The losses from 2009 have been erased and prices are making new highs. Even if you aren’t looking to move, chances are good that your property tax assessment has moved up significantly in the past two years.

Major corporate offices are being built in North Dallas, bringing tens of thousands of jobs to the area. And those relatively well-paid corporate employees are going to want to live in close commuting distance to work. Home owners have equity in their property, and interest rates, which have remained low, are expected to start creeping up. Many feel like right now is the perfect time to move up to their dream house. It has been a seller’s market, with many houses being sold quickly and often meeting or exceeding asking prices.

Anyone who has read this blog or my book, knows that I recommend home buyers consider a 15 year rather than a 30 year mortgage. Let’s go through those numbers in detail and consider the myths and reality of your mortgage decision.

For our example, let’s assume you are buying a $250,000 house and putting 20%, or $50,000, down. You will finance $200,000 through a mortgage.

At an average current rate of 3%, your monthly payment on a 15 year mortgage (not including taxes or insurance) is $1381.16. The 30 year mortgage will cost you approximately 3.75%, but your monthly payment will be only $926.23.

15 Year Mortgage @ 3.00%	30 Year Mortgage @ 3.75%
payment $1381.16	payment $926.23
	difference = $454.93

A lot of people will look at the 30 year mortgage and will say that it “saves” them $454.93 a month. Let’s break that down. On the 15 year mortgage, your first payment consists of $500 interest and $881.16 in principal. On the 30 year note, the first payment includes $625 in interest while only $301.23 is applied towards interest. Most of your payment on the 15 year note is going towards principal, building your equity, where as most of the 30 year payment goes towards interest. So, even though the 15 year note costs $454.93 more, in the first month, it applies $579.93 more towards your principal.

15 Year Mortgage	30 Year Mortgage
payment $1381.16	payment $926.23
principal $881.16	principal $301.23
difference = $579.93

After making 10 years of payments, your remaining balance on the 15 year note would be $76,864.99 and you will have paid $42,604.59 in total interest. On the 30 year, $200,000 mortgage, your balance after 10 years is still $156,223.55, and you will have paid $67,371.29 in total interest. At this point, the person who chose the 15 year note has paid off most of their loan and has the end in sight.

15 Year Mortgage @ 10 years	30 Year Mortgage @ 10 years
Balance $76,864.99	Balance $156,223.55
Interest Paid $42,604.59	Interest Paid $67,371.29

Assuming your home value increases a modest 1% a year, here’s a look at how your home equity would compare after 10 years under both mortgages.

15 Year Mortgage @ 10 years	30 Year Mortgage @ 10 years
Home Value $276,156	Home Value $276,156
Balance $76,865	Balance $156,224
Equity $199,291	Equity $119,932
Difference = $79,359

The nearly $80,000 difference in equity after 10 years shows how the 15 year mortgage is a really another way of “forced savings”. You would have equity to buy another house if you should want or need to move. Or if you’d like to retire, a 15 year mortgage may enable you to have no house payment when you reach retirement age.

So far this is pretty simple. But you may be wondering, what if I were to choose the 30 year mortgage and invest the difference of $454.93 per month? If you did this for 10 years, and earned 7%, you would have an investment account with $78,740. That’s almost the same as the difference in equity in the chart above.

Let’s take this further and assume that you invest the $454.93 for the full 30 years. How would this compare to paying the 15 year mortgage and then investing $1381.16 for the following 15 years?

15 Year Mortgage

30 Year Mortgage

Pay mortgage for 15 years, then invest $1381.16

for the next 15 years, at 7%

Invest the difference of $454.93 for 30 years, at 7%

Investment Value $437,760

Investment Value $554,959

This shows that choosing the 30 year mortgage and investing the difference versus a 15 year mortgage could generate a better outcome over 30 years. So then why would I suggest that home buyers choose the 15 year product instead? Here are two reasons:

1) If you go to a bank, mortgage broker, or realtor and say that you can afford a $1381 per month payment, they are not likely to help you decide between a 15 or 30 year mortgage. Rather, they will assume you will choose the 30 year note and then tell you how much house you can “afford”.

Instead of looking at the $250,000 house in our example, you could afford a $370,000 house with a 30 year note. And you will not be investing the $454 per month difference as in the theoretical example. With the more expensive house comes more expensive costs, including taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance.

People who become wealthy look at their housing as a cost, not as an investment. While you can afford a more expensive house under a 30 year mortgage, that doesn’t mean that it is in your best interest to do so, if you have other financial goals such as retirement.

It is vitally important to remember that there is a conflict of interest throughout most the real estate industry. People who are paid commissions have an incentive to put you in the most expensive house and mortgage that the bank will allow them to sell. They do not get paid to help you retire, save in your 401(k), or send your kids to college. It’s remarkable to me that six years after the sub-prime crisis that there has been so little change to the fundamental conflicts of interest in the real estate industry.

2) I don’t know very many people who actually have the discipline to invest the $454.93 a month they would “save” with a 30 year mortgage. More likely, they will increase their other discretionary spending (cars, vacations, furnishings, etc.) that accompany “keeping up with the Joneses” in a nice neighborhood.

The only way someone would be able to make it work would be automate the process and establish a recurring monthly deposit of $454 into a mutual fund or IRA. By the way, the 30 year example above only showed a good outcome because I assumed the investment was made into stocks and earn 7% for 30 years. If you put that money in cash and only earn 3%, the 15 year mortgage produces the superior outcome. The 30 year mortgage only produces a better outcome if you can greatly exceed the cost of borrowing (3.75% in our example). Here’s what it looks like if returns are only 3% over 30 years:

15 Year Mortgage

30 Year Mortgage

Pay mortgage for 15 years, then invest $1381.16

for the next 15 years, at 3%

Invest the difference of $454.93 for 30 years, at 3%

Investment Value $313,486

Investment Value $265,105

My fear of the 30 year mortgage is that it is not used by consumers or real estate professionals to maximize saving and growth investing. If it was, it would be a good tool for increasing your net worth. Rather it is used to maximize the amount of home you can purchase today.

For professions where career income is expected to rise only at the rate of inflation (such as teachers and musicians), your income is not going to increase fast enough to enable future saving when you take on a jumbo-sized mortgage. The result is that all your disposable income will go towards the house, with very little towards retirement, saving, or investment.

If today’s real estate market has you excited, be careful. It’s great that your home value has shot up 20% or more in the past couple of years. That makes it a great time to downsize, but actually an expensive time to buy a bigger house. We are lucky in Dallas that Real Estate prices have remained affordable; in many cities on the coasts, home buyers have no choice but to use the 30 year mortgage because prices are so high. If you start with the 15 year mortgage in mind when you are considering how much house you can afford, it can help you increase your net worth faster.