Behavioral Tricks to Improve Your Finances

Posted On September 28, 2015 By Admin In Behavioral Finance /

I was saddened to hear of Yogi Berra’s passing last week. One of the great quotes attributed to him is “In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is.” I’ve always thought this quote applied well to personal finance, where the academic expected behavior could differ significantly from the choices people make in real life.

The fact is that we all use our feelings, intuition, and past experience to make our decisions as much, or more, than we rely on logic, research, or an open-minded examination of evidence and data. Many academics take the view that any behavioral deviation from the theoretically optimal decision will lead to poor outcomes. And while that is definitely the case in many situations, my observation as a practitioner is that even the most successful individuals are not immune from this “irrational” behavior.

My point is that when theory and practice do deviate, there can still be good outcomes, in fact, sometimes even improved outcomes. Here are six ways you can use behavioral concepts to improve your financial situation. In theory, these won’t help. In practice, they will.

The 15-year mortgage. In theory, you can make more in stocks than the interest cost of a mortgage, so you should get an interest-only loan and never pay it off. Home values generally appreciate over the long-term, and there is no additional benefit to having equity in your home. Although this is theoretically correct, I suggest that home buyers get a 15-year mortgage instead of a 30-year or interest only note. The reason that the 15-year mortgage benefits buyers is that it will force you to buy a lower priced home to be able to afford the higher monthly payment. If you start your house hunt with a 15-year mortgage in mind, it might mean looking for a $300,000 home instead of a $350,000 home. The lower cost home will have lower property taxes, insurance, utilities, and other costs. More of your monthly payment will go towards principal with the shorter loan, so you will build equity faster, which is very valuable if you should need to move after five or ten years. Having a higher monthly mortgage payment will also force you to save more. By that I mean that if you had a payment that was $500 less, you probably would not save an additional $500 a month; you’d probably save only a small part of this, maybe $100 or $200 a month, and increase your spending by $300 or $400.
Set up your 401(k) contributions as a percentage. People are shockingly lazy with their 401(k) accounts. Many never change funds, and even more never change their contribution level. If you set up a $100 contribution per pay period, chances are good that five years later you are still contributing $100. If, on the other hand, you established a 10% contribution, your dollars contributed would have increased with your raises, promotions, and bonuses. If you can, increase your percentage contribution every year until you make the maximum allowable contribution, $18,000 for 2015.
Make it automatic. We are creatures of habit and momentum and will seldom change established our course. If you give someone $100,000 to invest, they will agonize over the fund choices and try to time their purchases. If the market goes down, they’ll bail out and blame the fund or the manager or something else. It’s better to set your investing on auto-pilot, invest every month into your 401(k), IRA, 529 college savings plan, or other investment vehicle. And then do what is natural for most of us: nothing. Keep investing when the market goes down. Stick with a basic, diversified allocation. That’s why people who have a created a $100,000 account by investing $1000 a month are more likely to stay on course than the investor who puts in a lump sum. Already have your investing on cruise control? Take the next step and make your rebalancing automatic, too!
Pay cash for cars. In theory, there’s nothing wrong with financing or leasing cars. However, if you get in the habit of paying cash for cars it will change your behavior for the better. It is incredibly painful to write a $35,000 check for a vehicle. If you pay cash for cars, it will force you to keep your current car for longer while you save for the next one. It will make you consider a used car or a lower cost vehicle. And it will be a strong incentive to keep your next vehicle for a very long time. Cars are often our second largest expense after housing. Most cars lose 50% of their value in five years, so would you prefer to lose half of $75,000 or half of $30,000? People don’t think this way when all they know is their monthly payment. When you pay cash for a car, you start to think like an owner and not a renter.
Do less research. One of the mental biases facing investors is overconfidence; the more research we do, the more we believe we can predict the outcome of our investing choices. This can lead to people being overweight in their company stock, getting in and out of the market, or making large sector bets. These choices often lead to increased risk taking and quite often to long-term under performance. We’re also likely to suffer from “confirmation bias”, where we cherry pick the data or articles which corroborate our existing point of view and ignore any contradictory evidence. Overconfidence and confirmation bias don’t just affect individual investors, they are significant challenges for professional fund managers. Since the majority of professional managers cannot beat the index, I don’t hold much optimism that an individual can do better. So, cancel your subscription to the Wall Street Journal, turn off CNBC, and buy an index fund.
Use “mental accounting” to your advantage. Money is fungible, meaning $1 is $1 regardless of where it is located. However, people like to divide their money into buckets for retirement, saving, spending, emergency funds, college, vacation, or whatever. In theory, this is meaningless, you’d be equally well off with just one account invested appropriately for your risk tolerance. Even though Academics would like to banish mental accounting, people are enamored with their buckets. While you should look at all your holdings as being slices of one pie, you can use mental accounting to your advantage. You are less likely to touch money when it is in a dedicated account. For example, if you put money in a savings account for emergencies, you may later be tempted to spend that money on a vacation or other splurge. If you instead put that money into a Roth IRA, you’d be much less likely to touch it. But if you did have an emergency, you could access the principal from your Roth, tax-free. The other benefit of buckets is that it may force you to do more saving when you have specific dollar goals for retirement, college, or other purposes. Then if you need to plan for a vacation, you know you will have to do additional saving and cannot touch the buckets allocated for other goals.

Use behavior to your advantage by making sure your choices are helping you get closer to achieving your goals. Investing can be simple; it’s people who choose to make it complicated. Stick to the basics and stay focused on saving and diversification. I’m not sure we can ever completely remove behavioral biases from our decision making process, but the more we are aware of those biases, the easier it is to step back and recognize what exactly is driving our choices.

Can Being Frugal Make You Happy?

Posted On August 24, 2015 By Admin In Behavioral Finance, Financial Planning /

Gen Y is bringing frugality back in style. As a financial planner, I’m delighted to find frugality is cool now. I’ve read their blogs (where else would they write?) with fascination and appreciation for their candor. I’m calling this the New Frugality, and you’ve probably heard or read about some of these ideas, including the Tiny House, where people live in a home often smaller than 200 square feet. Others are embracing Minimalist Wardrobes, creating a personal, seasonal clothing uniform (think Steve Jobs with his jeans and black mock turtleneck). This past week, there was an article in Forbes about the Frugalwoods, an anonymous Boston couple who is saving 71% of their income so that they can retire at age 33 and move to a Vermont homestead with their rescue Greyhound.

In these blogs, the authors are never afraid to share their personal stories, from big-picture motivations and life philosophies, to the smallest minutiae of their daily decisions. Along the way, we invariably learn of their challenges, missteps, and triumphs. The blogs are part diary, part instruction manual, and part entertainment for their friends and fans. Even with different goals and approaches, there are common beliefs.

The New Frugality believes that less is more, and does not buy into the modern American idea that “buying more stuff” can make you happy. They have a maturity (which takes some people 70 years to develop) that recognizes that happiness comes from rewarding experiences, positive relationships, and a work/life balance that includes a higher purpose.
They want off the financial treadmill. Some had large student loans or crippling credit card debt before having an epiphany about becoming debt-free. Others found their corporate careers unsatisfying and were brave enough to recognize that spending the next 40 years in a job they hate isn’t worth it just to be able to afford a big house and a fancy car.
While others may view their frugality as a sacrifice, they often find that simplifying their lives and eliminating clutter brings a clarity to their sense of what is truly important to them.

The New Frugality is about seeking the quality of life you want today, rather than believing you should wait until some future date, i.e. retirement, before you can really do what you want. It’s an implicit rejection of the old notion of working 50 hours a week until age 65, then never working again.

[In case you are wondering, I contrast the New Frugality with previous beliefs about frugality which were created by those who lived through The Great Depression and who raised their children in a different, frugal manner. While both the old and new approaches want to stretch each dollar, the old frugality was characterized by self-reliance, never throwing away anything you might need in the future, risk avoidance, and mistrust of financial systems. Some of those traits were largely fear-based, which does not resonate with the abundance mentality I embrace and believe is required to be a patient and successful investor.]

Does frugality make you happy? I think the most literal answer is no. By that, I mean that if you are unhappy, spending less won’t make you happy. If you really enjoy going to Starbucks every morning, cutting out that $5/day habit isn’t automatically going to improve your satisfaction, even if it enables you to save $1,825 a year. Frugality works for these bloggers because they were willing to embrace changes to their habits even though society was telling them to spend more money instead. There’s no doubt that frugality is financially beneficial, but the sources of happiness include a lot more than just your financial situation.

Reading their blogs can help you appreciate your own spending more as well as to feel good, and not alone, when you do choose a frugal approach. We are continually bombarded with advertising that suggests we’d be happier, cooler, and more attractive if we had the right car, clothes, or beauty products. We’re told that our current life would be better if we had a bigger home, nicer furniture, or luxury vacations. Of course that’s not true. We know that spending to increase our satisfaction is at best a fleeting pleasure which can leave consumers addicted to living beyond their means. Unfortunately, there are so few voices pushing back on the advertisers’ message to consume.

Even if you don’t want to live in a tiny house, reduce your wardrobe to a few pieces, or bike to work, you can still take frugal steps to ensure you are working towards true financial independence, which we define as working because you want to and not because you have to. Here are six lessons to take away from the New Frugality:

Beware of lifestyle creep. Many of us were very happy in college, even though we may have had a rickety car, tiny apartment, and slept on a futon. It doesn’t take long after graduation to discover the urge to “keep up the Joneses”, as friends buy big houses and fancy cars. How can they afford it? Oftentimes, they can’t and they’re up to their eyeballs in debt. They’re more concerned about their image than their net worth, and that’s not something to emulate! If you increase your living expenses every time your income goes up, you aren’t ever going to become wealthy.
Save at least 15% of your income. Set financial goals, including a “finish line”. If you are highly motivated (or just impatient, like me), you will realize that the more you save, the sooner you will reach your finish line. Saving then is not a sacrifice, but the fastest, most direct way to achieve financial independence. When your goals are more important to you than a new (fill in the blank), your spending decisions become much easier.
Avoid impulse buys and emotional shopping, that is shopping to distract you from sadness, frustration, or boredom. Never buy on credit; if you don’t have cash to pay for something, it’s not worth going into debt. Be conscious and intentional about your spending behavior. Do your choices reflect your goals and beliefs?
Buy used. There is a growing market for used items, often selling at a small fraction of the cost of new items. This is the Craigslist economy, which is growing around the country. You can often buy what you need without paying full retail prices.
Savor success. There is a great deal of intrinsic satisfaction in becoming financially independent. Even taking the initial steps towards creating a positive cash flow are great confidence boosters because people feel empowered when they take control of their financial life. As every financial planner will tell you, the more you need to spend, the larger the nest egg required to be able to fund your future needs. Therefore, when you reduce your spending, you not only can save more, but you also reduce the size of the nest egg you will need to replace your income.
Reduce stress. While money is not the source of true happiness, there is no doubt that being broke, in debt, or just knowing you are not setting enough aside for the future, can be a significant source of personal anxiety and marital friction.

As a bonus, you will find great common sense financial planning tips on these blogs. What are the Frugalwoods doing with the 71% of their income the save? They maximize their 401(k) contributions and invest the rest in the market. They write: We’ve done well because we invest in boring index funds and we don’t sell when the market is down. That’s a great recipe for success!

Reading about the New Frugality is entertaining because many authors are willing to take their frugal habits to quite an extreme. Even if we don’t adopt their spartan lifestyle, they can remind us that we don’t have to spend money to be happy.

The Best Way to Get in Shape

Posted On June 29, 2015 By Admin In Behavioral Finance /

In December, after years of good intentions and a couple of false starts, I finally joined a gym and hired a personal trainer. I meet with my trainer once a week and workout two or three times separately. Previously, I thought I could just get in shape on my own, but it was always too easy to find an excuse why today wasn’t a good day to exercise. And then days become weeks, you find other demands more pressing, and you just never get around to it.

Working with my trainer, Clint, has been great. I’m getting in shape and feel very confident that I’m now on the right path. Looking back, my only thought is that I wish I had gotten started much sooner with this process. Why are people more successful with a personal trainer than on their own? Here’s what a coach has to offer:

1) Knowledge. Clint has spent thousands of hours in education and his certifications demonstrate commitment to being qualified and skilled to help others. As for me, I have neither the time nor the interest to learn this information. Since you don’t know what you don’t know, it’s smart to seek out expert, objective advice.

2) Experience. Clint has worked with many clients and knows what works. While everyone’s individual situation is slightly different, a professional trainer has probably seen a lot of clients who have similar needs to mine.

3) A written plan. We started with a physical assessment to document my starting point, and after discussing my goals and commitment, developed a plan unique for me. Now I know what I need to do on a daily basis in order to reach my long-term goals.

4) The right tools. My trainer selects the most appropriate equipment for me to use and makes sure I use them correctly for maximum benefit and to avoid injury. When you combine discipline and consistency with doing the right things, good results happen.

5) Motivation. We have a workout schedule which has become a habit and routine. It’s rewarding to see our plan working, and when there are occasional set-backs, it’s helpful to have Clint’s patience, support, and encouragement to get back on track.

While I certainly suggest others take good care of their health and bodies, here’s what I want people to recognize: just as using a personal trainer is the best way to get in shape physically, using a financial planner is the best way to get in shape financially. What we offer is very similar. As a CFP(R) practitioner, I help individuals accomplish their financial goals, bringing professional knowledge, years of experience, a written plan, the right tools, and ongoing motivation.

Can you get in shape on your own? Of course it’s possible, but you’re more likely to be successful with professional guidance. You can be sure that athletes and actors always have a personal trainer or a team of trainers. Likewise, many of the most financially successful individuals I’ve met, including multi-millionaire entrepreneurs, board members of Fortune 500 companies, and Harvard-trained surgeons all use a financial advisor. It’s not a question of whether or not they’re not smart enough to do it on their own, it’s that they recognize the value in hiring an expert and the benefit that relationship can bring to their financial well-being.

If you are like I was, having good intentions, but procrastinating getting going, it’s time to give me a call. We will put together a financial plan you can understand and I’ll be there in the months and years ahead to help you stay on track with accomplishing your goals. If you’re waiting for tomorrow, don’t. Aside from yesterday, today is the best day to get started.

Win by Avoiding These Mistakes

Posted On June 8, 2015 By Admin In Behavioral Finance /

This week, I heard an orchestra conductor say, “It’s not simple to make it sound easy.” While he was talking about music, I was thinking how this applies to investing, too. The more we know about investing and the more experience we have, the more we recognize the benefits of following a very straightforward approach. You don’t have to be a genius to be a successful investor, you just have to avoid making a couple of big mistakes. The game of investing is not won by brilliant moves, but rather by patience and avoiding the common pitfalls that lure investors in year after year.

It’s easy to recognize mistakes in hindsight. The challenge is to anticipate these outcomes in advance, so you can prevent these these errors whenever you are tempted to make changes to your portfolio. Is your decision based on a logical examination of the facts, or an emotional response or ingrained bias? You can be successful over time by following a smart plan, even if it is not complicated. Let the market run its course and know that your plan will work best when you don’t get in the way! Here are three of most costly mistakes I’ve seen investors make in the past 15 years and the solution for you to avoid these each of these missteps. These are real, actual people, but I’ve changed the names here to protect their identity. Learn from their losses!

1) Lack of diversification. 10 years ago, I met Peter who was a client of another financial advisor at my firm. Peter was an engineer at Nortel, and like many employees at tech companies in the 90’s, he received substantial stock options. For years, the stock would double and split every 18 m0nths or so, which meant that anyone who sold their stock options regretted not holding for longer. Peter had more than 12,000 options when Nortel hit $90 a share in the spring of 2000, giving his options a value of over $1 million. At every meeting, they discussed exercising his options, selling his shares and diversifying, but Peter wanted to wait longer. The stock fell to $85, and Peter finally agreed to sell, but said that he had his heart set on a higher price and would sell as soon as it got back over $90 a share.

Unfortunately, the stock never regained the $90 level, and instead lost 90% of its value over the next nine months. His options were now worthless and his hopes of retiring in his 50’s lost forever. Nortel went bankrupt in 2009 and his division was sold to competitor. Peter had the majority of his net worth in company stock and the loss truly decimated his investment portfolio and derailed his retirement plans.

It is often said that diversification is the only free lunch in investing. By being diversified, you can avoid the risk of having one stock wipe out your plans. And I should mention that this also applies to bonds. I met another investor who had $100,000 of Lehman Brothers bonds for their portfolio. As I recall, I believe the investor recovered only about 25 cents on the dollar after the Lehman bankruptcy in 2008.

Solution: Don’t let company stock – or any single stock – comprise more than 10% of your portfolio. Even better, avoid single stocks altogether and use ETFs or mutual funds. For bonds, I’d suggest keeping any single issuer to only 1-2% of your portfolio. The potential benefits of having a concentrated stock position are outweighed by the magnitude of losses if things go wrong.

2) Trying to Outsmart the Market. Luke considered himself a sophisticated investor and enjoyed reading and learning about investing. He had an MBA and felt that with his knowledge and a subscription to the Wall Street Journal, he should be focused on beating the market. He looked at his portfolio almost every day and would be very concerned if any of his funds were lagging the overall market. As a result, he wanted to trade frequently, to put his money into whatever sector, fund, or category was currently performing best.

Funds typically include the disclaimer that “past performance is no guarantee of future results”, and yet, so many investors are focused on picking funds based on their most recent past performance. In Luke’s case, his insistence on “hot funds” meant that he was often invested in sector funds. His performance over time was actually worse than the benchmarks, because in spite of all his research and knowledge, he was focused on looking backwards rather than forwards.

Solution: stay diversified and don’t chase hot funds. Typically, 65% to 80% of all active managers under perform their benchmark over five years, which means that your safest bet is to never bet on a manager’s skill but to bet on the house. Using index funds works, and adopting an index approach means you can focus on what really matters for accumulation: how much you save. Luke’s portfolio was relatively small, under $100,000. Ironically, investors with smaller accounts are often the ones who believe that they need to outsmart the market to be successful. When I worked with a client with over $100 million, he had no qualms about index funds whatsoever.

3) Timing the Market. Angelina retired in 2007, a year before the stock market slumped. In early 2009, the market was down nearly every day, sometimes losing 5% in a session. We had conversations previously with Angelina about market volatility and had implemented a diversified, balanced portfolio. On March 6, 2009, Angelina called and insisted that we exit all her equity positions. It was that very day that the S&P 500 Index put in its intra-day low of 666. In hindsight, she sold on the actual worst day possible. Luckily, we were able to convince her to buy the equities back by June, but by then, she had missed a 30% rally.

Market timing mistakes aren’t limited to selling at a low; you can also miss out when the market is doing well. Last year, while the market was up double digits, some investors had significant capital in cash, fearing a drop or hoping to profit from any temporary pullback. Those with large cash positions under performed those who were invested in a target allocation. Having looked at hundreds of investors’ performance, I have yet to see anyone who has improved their return through market timing, except from random luck. Trying to get in and out of the market gives you more opportunities to make mistakes.

Solution: Choose an appropriate asset allocation and stick with it. Invest monthly into a diversified portfolio, and don’t stop investing when the market is down. If you think you will wait until you get an “all-clear” signal, you’re going to miss out on gains like Angelina. Rebalancing annually creates a discipline to sell your winners and buy the losers, which is difficult to do otherwise!

Investing should be easy. People have the best intentions when they load up on company stock, invest in a hot fund, or try to time the market. The reality, however, is that the more complicated strategy you adopt, the more likely you will hurt rather than enhance your returns. Our goal is to help investors gain the knowledge, confidence, and discipline to recognize that your most likely path to success is to stick with a simple approach that is proven to work.

Want to read more? Check out Winning The Loser’s Game by Charles Ellis.

Are We Heading For A Bear Market?

Posted On May 18, 2015 By Admin In Behavioral Finance /

Yes, we are headed for a bear market. But, that’s no cause for alarm, because there is always going to be another bear market. That’s how markets work – we have periods of economic expansion, followed by periods of contraction. I should add that I have no idea when the next bear market will occur, but if you’re wondering if a bear market will occur, then yes, it is 100% inevitable. You’ll be happier and a better investor if you accept this fact, too.

Today’s bull market will eventually run out of steam and we will have a bear market. And that will be followed by another bull market, and so on. The key thing to remember is that the overall long-term trend is up, and that bear markets are simply a brief interruption of a permanently growing global engine.

Since World War II, we’ve had roughly 13 bear markets (a drop of 20% or more), which works out to an average of once every five years. Each one of those bear markets felt like the sky was falling and that markets would never recover, but what has actually occurred is that the S&P 500 Index has expanded 100-fold from 19 in 1946 to 2100 today.

If you are just getting started investing, you might see perhaps 8 bear markets as you accumulate assets for 40 years. And if you are now retiring, you may experience 6 or so bear markets over a 30-year retirement.

It’s easy to agree that you won’t try to time the market when the market is doing great, like it is today. But even the steadiest investor is likely to have their resolve tested if the market goes down 20%. It’s human nature to want to stop the pain of losses and just get out of the market. Unfortunately, the moment of maximum pain will be at the bottom – exactly the worst time to sell your stocks.

With so much fear in the market today, some investors are wondering if we should sell and sit in cash until there is a decline. I can’t advocate this type of strategy. Even if you are successful in getting out of the market, you have to correctly get back into the market. I’ve yet to see any fund or firm be able to do this consistently over several economic cycles. And every study I have seen on individual investors has found that a market timing approach is likely to have worse returns than sticking with a buy and hold strategy.

Some so-called experts have been predicting a bear market for several years, and if you had sold your stocks based on their advice, you would have missed out on significant gains. Even after six years of positive returns, it’s possible that the bull market will continue to march upwards. No one has a crystal ball to predict how the market will perform in the short term. Market timing doesn’t work because it requires knowledge which doesn’t exist.

What we do know is that bear markets are inevitable and what really matters is how you respond to them. That’s why it’s vitally important to have a plan in place for that future storm while the sun is shining today. Here’s our plan and what you need to know about bear markets:

1) Bear markets are a brief interruption of a larger uptrend. If you’re a long-term investor, don’t worry about bear markets.

2) Don’t make a temporary decline into a permanent loss of capital by selling. Know that we plan to stay the course. We will not attempt to time the market. We choose an all-weather allocation which we will maintain in both bull and bear markets based on your needs, goals, and risk tolerance.

3) We rebalance portfolios annually. When the market is up, that means we trim stocks and add to bonds. If the market goes down, we will buy stocks when they are on sale. Remember that we are always highly diversified and avoid both sector funds and single country funds.

4) When you hear “Bear Market”, I want you to think of two words. First, inevitable, and second opportunity. When a TV is marked down by 20 or 30% off last year’s price, you don’t think its a disaster, it’s a chance to buy something you want at a lower price. Take advantage when the market puts stocks on sale.

Have faith in the future. Not a blind naivete, but an understanding of history and an appreciation for the opportunity which bear markets bring to us. The key question is not whether or not we will have a bear market, but if you are prepared and know what to do when we eventually do have one.

How to Become a Millionaire in 10 Years

Posted On January 26, 2015 By Admin In Behavioral Finance, Financial Planning / 2 Comments

Answer: save $5,466 a month and earn 8%.

I thought about ending the article there, because that’s all you actually need to do. Investing is simple, but it isn’t easy. No one likes the answer above, even though it really is that simple. When confronted with a difficult task, our brains are wired to look for an easier way, a shortcut. Many investors waste a vast amount of time and energy trying to improve their return by timing the market, buying last year’s hot fund, or day-trading stocks.

Unfortunately, these attempts at finding a shortcut don’t work. It’s like someone who wants to run a marathon but not train for it. There isn’t a shortcut, you just have to do the right things, stick to the training schedule, and put in the miles. You have to earn it. Yet there are entire magazines, TV networks, and firms who make their living from telling people that the shortcut is to trade frequently, and that beating the market is the sure path to prosperity.

The truth that no one wants to hear is that investors would be more successful in achieving their financial goals if they instead focused on how much they save. Let’s step back and consider what we actually can control when it comes to our investment portfolios:

how much we save and invest
our asset allocation and diversification
investment expenses
tax efficiency, which can reduce (although not eliminate) taxes

We cannot control what the market will do this month or year, so ultimately we have to accept the ups and downs of each market cycle. We have many studies which consistently show that the majority of active fund managers under perform their benchmarks over time. We also have compelling evidence that the average investor significantly lags the indices due to poor decisions and fund selection.

Few people are able to save $5,500 a month. It’s not easy, but that is the way to get to $1,000,000 in 10 years. For a family making $200,000 a year, this would require you to save one-third ($66,000) of your pre-tax income. Again, not easy, but possible. After all, there are many families who are able to “get by” on $134,000 (or much less), so it is certainly possible for a family with an income of $200,000 to save $66,000. While there are many families in Dallas who make this amount or more, saving is viewed by some negatively, as a sacrifice, rather than with pride and recognition that it is the key to accomplishing your financial goals.

If you did the math, saving $5,500 a month, or $66,000 a year for 10 years is asking you to save $660,000 over 10 years. So even at an 8% return, the market performance is not the main source of your accumulation. Your saving is the main driver of your accumulation.

However, in the next decade, after you have achieved your first million, things become much more interesting. Compounding is your new best friend. At $1 million, an 8% return means you’re up $80,000, and you’re now making more from the portfolio than you contribute annually. Continue to invest $5,466 a month for another 10 years at 8%, and you’re looking at a portfolio with over $3.2 million.

And that’s why I get very excited talking about saving with high-income professionals. If you can commit to that aggressive level of saving, your success will be inevitable. Is an assumed 8% return realistic? No one knows for 2015, but I think 8% is likely to be attainable for 10 years and almost a certainty over 20 years. 8% isn’t going to happen every year, but historically, it is possible to average that rate of return over time. In the long-run, the returns can take care of themselves when you stick with a sensible, diversified approach. The factor which needs more attention, and which you can control, is your savings rate.

Are Equities Overvalued?

Posted On January 5, 2015 By Admin In Behavioral Finance, Portfolio Management /

In last week’s blog, we reviewed the fixed income market and discussed how we are positioned for the year ahead. Today, we will turn our attention to the equity portion of our portfolios. Perhaps the top question on most investors’ minds is whether the 5-year bull market can continue in 2015. At this point, are equities overvalued or do they still have room to run?

I don’t think it’s useful to try to make predictions about what the market will do in the near future, but I’m certainly interested in understanding what risks we face and what areas may offer the best value for our Good Life Wealth model portfolios. We use a “Core + Satellite” approach which holds low-cost index funds as long-term “Core” positions, and tactically selects “Satellite” funds which we believe may enhance the portfolio over the medium-term (12-months to a couple of years).

The US stock market was a top performer globally in 2014. The S&P 500 Index was up over 13% for the year, and US REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) returned 30%. Those are remarkable numbers, especially on the heels of a 32% return for the S&P in 2013. With six years in a row of positive returns, valuations have increased noticeably for US stocks. The S&P now has a forward P/E (Price/Earnings ratio) of 18, slightly above the long term average of 15-16.

While US stocks are no longer cheap, that doesn’t automatically mean that the party is over. With a strong dollar, foreign investors are continuing to buy US equities (and enjoyed a greater than 13% gain in 2014, in their local currency). The US economic recovery is ahead of Europe, where growth remains elusive and structural challenges are firmly in place. Compared to many of the Emerging Market countries, the US economy is very stable. Emerging economies face a number of economic and political issues, and struggle with declining energy prices, often their largest export.

US Stocks remain the most sought-after. While today’s P/E is above average, “average” is not a ceiling. Bull Markets can certainly exceed the average P/E for an extended period. And given today’s unprecedented low bond yields, it’s tough to make a comparison to past stock markets; equities are the only place we can hope to find growth. Current valuations are not in bubble territory, but it seems prudent to set lower expectations for 2015 than what we achieved in the previous five years. And of course, stocks do not only go up; there are any number of possible events which could cause stocks to drop in 2015.

Given the current strength of the US market, you might wonder why we own foreign stocks at all. They certainly were a drag on performance in 2014. In Behavioral Finance, there is a cognitive error called “recency bias”, which means that our brains tend to automatically overweight our most recent experiences. For example, if we did a coin-toss and came up with “heads” four times in a row, we’d be more likely to bet that the fifth toss would also be heads, even though statistically, the odds remain 50/50 for heads or tails.

Checking valuations is a important step to avoid making these types of mistakes. Looking at the current markets, Foreign Developed Stocks do indeed have better value than US stocks, with a P/E of 15.5 versus 18. And Emerging Market stocks, which were expensive a few short years ago, now trade at an attractive P/E of 13. We cannot simply look at which stocks are performing best to create an optimal portfolio allocation. Diversification remains best not just because we don’t know what will happen next year, but because we want to buy tomorrow’s top performers when they are on sale today.

Our greatest tool then is rebalancing, which trims the positions which have soared (and become expensive), to purchase the laggards (which have often become cheap). So we’re making very few changes to the models for 2015, because we want to own what is cheap and want to avoid buying more of what is expensive, even if it does continue to work. We will slightly reduce International Small Cap, and add the proceeds to US Large Cap Value. US Small Cap has become quite expensive, but small cap value now trades at a bit of a discount (or is less over-valued, perhaps), so that is another shift we will make this year.

Each year, I do an in-depth review of our portfolio models and I always find the process interesting and worthwhile. This year, looking at relative valuations in equities reminds me that our best path is to remain diversified, even if owning out-of-favor categories appears to be contrarian in the short-term.

An Attitude of Gratitude

Posted On November 24, 2014 By Admin In Behavioral Finance /

It’s Thanksgiving week and I want to thank all of my clients and readers for supporting me and my new company which we launched six months ago this week. I am incredibly grateful for the opportunities I have received and look forward with eager anticipation to the year ahead. I visited Thanks-Giving Square this week in downtown Dallas and was inspired by their story and mission. Dallas has the drive and ambition to do great things, but also the humility to do so with a greater purpose and perspective. And that’s why I’m proud to call our city home.

I spend most of my time dealing with the minutiae of financial planning, but I know that knowledge alone is not the source of success. To make it work, you have to be an optimist, you have to believe in the process. Over the past 15 years, we’ve had tremendous opportunities to create wealth, and many have grown their net worth dramatically. And still there are people who will tell you that the market has been terrible over this time period and that they’ve not made money.

People who are thankful, who have gratitude, tend to have more success in their finances. Gratitude and optimism are two sides of the same coin and maintaining that positive attitude goes a long way towards accomplishing goals. But I don’t think we always feel grateful. Most of us have to be reminded from time to time to step back and consider all the things we should not take for granted.

Is it worthwhile to try to be thankful? Can you become more grateful? In a 2003 psychological study, participants were asked to keep a journal. One group was instructed to write things they were thankful for, while a second and third group recorded negative thoughts, or neutral events (no positive or negative instructions). Researchers found that those with a “gratitude journal” felt better and were more optimistic. They were also more likely to have made more progress on their personal goals.

We will all think of reasons to be grateful this Thursday, but why let it be a one-day event? What if, instead, you wrote down just one thing you are thankful for, each day for the rest of the year. That’s what I will be doing and I invite you to do the same. I hope you will accept, and if you do, please send me a message after January 1 to tell me about your experience. Thank you!

Adversity or Opportunity?

Posted On October 21, 2014 By Admin In Behavioral Finance /

In the past two weeks, market volatility has spiked and major indices have traded down 7% or more. I follow the market closely and monitor the situation for news which might impact our portfolios. Generally, I prefer to use this space to discuss beneficial financial planning topics, but I know that everyone is wondering about the market, so here is my take on the situation.

The recent pull-back has been relatively minor and probably long-overdue, given that we’ve gone five years since a significant correction. The good news is that stock fundamentals are strong and the US economic recovery remains in place, although actual growth is somewhat tepid. While equity prices have risen, valuations are within a normal range and not at the elevated levels we saw in previous bubbles. With interest rates remaining extremely low, “risk” assets like stocks still offer greater potential return than cash or fixed income.

Having shared my opinion, I have to say that it really doesn’t matter what I think will happen. Anyone who thinks that data is “proof” of what the market is going to do is fooling themselves. No one can predict the market. Fortunately, long-term investment success does not require a crystal ball. What it does require is a well-researched and executed plan, a diversified allocation, and most importantly, the fortitude and discipline to stick to your plan.

I was asked this week if I got my clients out of the market before the recent turmoil. No, I didn’t and I didn’t sell any of my own stock positions, either. I was doing the opposite this week: buying in a number of portfolios. And I was quite happy to have the opportunity to pick up ETF shares 5-10% lower than they cost just three or four weeks ago. I’m focused on the long-term opportunity and not the present adversity. Although I don’t know where the market will be one month from now, I strongly believe that the market will be significantly higher in 10 years from now and that is what really matters.

So rather than worry about the troubles of the day and the things you cannot control, I believe investors are best served by focusing on the things you can control, such as:

establishing a target asset allocation to match your risk tolerance, required return, and time horizon;
diversifying to eliminate company-specific risks;
keeping investment expenses low and reducing tax drag to a minimum; and
how much you save and invest.

Of these four, the last one is crucial to your individual success. The news tends to make us focus on trying to improve short-term investment performance, instead of how much you should be saving. If your goal is accumulation, it’s more important to be thinking about how to increase your saving than how to increase your return. We have to learn to ignore the noise of the daily media so we can stay focused on how to achieve our long-term objectives.

Optimism is key. Not a blind naivete, but the confidence to know that you are on the right path, and the recognition that sometimes the path is uphill. I remember a bit of wisdom I heard years ago “You make your money in bear markets, you just don’t know it until later.” If you’ve got five or more years to retirement, you should welcome each pullback in the market as a tremendous opportunity.

With this understanding, there are some small ways to take advantage of the recent market turmoil and use the recent drop in prices to your advantage:

Put excess cash to work; if you haven’t made your IRA contribution, now is a good time.
Rebalance your portfolio.
Swap losing positions to harvest tax losses; replace your high expense funds with tax-efficient, low cost ETFs. Use the downturn as an opportunity to clean up your portfolio.
Add Emerging Market equities, if you don’t have any. EM is down more than domestic equities and has lagged for several years.

Market timing may be an alluring mirage, but ultimately is a counterproductive distraction for investors. If you’re able to take advantage of the pullback, that’s fine, but if you’re already invested, don’t think that you have to “do something”. Most of the time, doing nothing is ultimately the best option!