Guaranteed Retirement Income

Posted On November 12, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

Guaranteed Retirement Income increases satisfaction. When you receive Social Security, a Pension, or other monthly payment, you don’t have to worry about market volatility or if you will run out of money. You’re guaranteed to receive the payment for as long as you live. That is peace of mind.

Research shows that people prefer pension payments versus taking withdrawals from an investment portfolio. When you were working, you had a paycheck show up every month and you didn’t feel bad about spending it. There would be another paycheck next month. Unfortunately, with an investment portfolio, retirees dislike spending that money. There is “range anxiety” that their 401(k) or IRA will run out of money. There is fear that a market drop will ruin their plans. After spending 40 years building up an account and it’s not easy to reverse course and start to spend that nest egg and see it go down.

Corporate and Municipal pensions have been in decline for decades. As a result, most of us have only a Social Security benefit as guaranteed income. That’s too bad. 401(k) plans are a poor substitute for a good pension. You need to accumulate a million bucks just to get $40,000 a year at a 4% withdrawal rate. It places all the responsibility on American workers to fund their own retirement, and this has led to wildly disparate retirement readiness between people. Even those who accumulate significant retirement accounts still have the worries about running out of money. Sequence of Returns, poor performance or mismanagement, cognitive decline, or longevity are all risks.

The solution to create guaranteed lifetime income is a Single Premium Immediate Annuity, or SPIA. A SPIA is a contract with a life insurance company in which you trade a lump sum in exchange for a monthly payment for life. For as long as you live, you will get that monthly check, just like a Pension or Social Security. When you pass away, the payments stop. For married couples, we can establish a Survivor’s Benefit that will continue the payout (sometimes reduced at 50% or 75%) for the rest of the survivor’s life, if the owner should pass away.

How much would it cost? For a 65-year old man, a $100,000 premium would establish a $537/month payment for life. That is $6,444 a year, or a 6.4% rate on your premium. For a 65-year old woman, it would be $487, a month, or $5,844 a year (5.8%) For a couple, if the wife was also 65, that same premium would offer $425/month for both lives (100% survivors benefit). That’s $5,100 a year, or 5.1%. The greater the expected longevity, the lower the monthly payment.

There are some fairly obvious advantages and disadvantages of a SPIA.

Pros

Lifetime income, fixed, predictable, and guaranteed
No stock market risk, no performance concerns, no Sequence of Returns risk

Cons

Permanent decision – cannot reverse later
Some people will not live for very long and will get only a handful or payments back
No money leftover for your heirs
No inflation protection – monthly payout is fixed

I’ve been a financial advisor since 2004 and I have yet to have a client who wants to buy a SPIA. For some, the thought of spending a big chunk of money and the risk that they die in a year or two, is unbearable. However, the payout is fair, because some people will live for much longer than the average. The way insurance works is by The Law of Large Numbers. An insurance company is willing to take the risk that someone will live for 40 or 50 years because they know that if they sell thousands of annuities, it will work out to an average lifespan across the group. Some people live longer than average and some live less than average.

Two Ways to Use a SPIA

Although they remain unpopular, SPIAs deserve a closer look. Let’s immediately throw away the idea that you should put all your money into a SPIA. But there are two ways that a SPIA might make sense as part of your retirement income plan.

Use a SPIA to cover your basic expenses. Look at your monthly budget. Assume you need $3,000 a month to cover all your expenses. If you have $2,200 in Social Security benefits, buy a SPIA that would cover the remaining $800 shortfall. For the 65-year old couple above, this $800/month joint SPIA would cost $188,235. Now you have $3,000 a month in guaranteed lifetime income to cover 100% of your basic expenses. Hopefully, you still have a large investment portfolio that can grow and supplement your income if needed.

The nice thing about this approach is that it takes a bit less cash than if you follow the 4% rule. If you needed $800 a month ($9,600 a year), a 4% withdrawal rate would require you have a portfolio of $240,000. The SPIA only requires $188,235.

Let’s say you have a $1 million portfolio. You could (a) put it all in the portfolio and start a 4% withdrawal rate, or (b) put $188,235 into the SPIA and keep the remainder in the portfolio. Here’s what that would look like for year one:

a. $1 million at 4% = $40,000 potential income
b. $188,235 SPIA = $9,600, PLUS $811,765 portfolio at 4% = $32,470. The combined income from the SPIA and portfolio is now $42,070

You have increased your income by $2,070 a year and you have established enough guaranteed income to cover 100% of your monthly needs. Then, you are not dependent on the market to cover your basic expenses each month.

2. The second way to think of a SPIA is as a Bond replacement for your portfolio. Instead of buying Treasury Bonds and worrying if you will outlive them, you can buy a SPIA, and the insurance company will buy very safe bonds. The insurance company then assumes your Longevity risk.

Back to our example above, let’s say your $1 million portfolio is invested in a 60/40 allocation (60% stocks, 40% bonds). Just consider the SPIA as part of your fixed income sleeve. If you had a target of $400,000 in bonds, rather than letting them sit in 10-year Treasuries earning 0.7% today, go ahead and put $188,235 in the SPIA and keep $211,765 in bonds. Your $600,000 in stocks remains the same. Now, on your SPIA, you are getting a withdrawal rate of 5.1% to 6.4%. And although you are eating your principal with a SPIA, you have no longevity risk, it’s a guaranteed check. You have reduced the withdrawal requirement from your equities and can better weather the ups and downs of the stock market.

Is a SPIA Right For You?

A SPIA isn’t going to be for everyone. But if you want lifetime guaranteed retirement income a SPIA is a solid, conservative choice. Used in conjunction with the other pieces of your income plan (Social Security and Investment portfolio), a SPIA can help you sleep well at night. Especially for investors who are in great health and with a family history of longevity, it may be worth putting some money into a SPIA and turning on that monthly check. It can help offset the stock market risks that could derail your plans.

I know many parents think putting money into a SPIA will reduce money for their kids to inherit. That might be true. Of course, if you live a long time and run out of money, you won’t be leaving any money to your kids either. Our goal with any retirement income solution is to make sure you don’t outlive your money, which hopefully also means you are able to leave some money to your heirs.

What if the insurance company goes under? Isn’t that a risk? It is. Thankfully, most states protect SPIA policy holders up to $250,000. If you are planning to put more than $250,000 into a SPIA, I would seriously consider dividing your funds between several companies to stay under the limits. Read more: The Texas Guaranty Association. (Note that this information is provided solely for educational purposes and is not an inducement to a sale.)

In the next three articles in this five-part series, we will look at different withdrawal strategies for your investment portfolio. These approaches include the 4% rule, a Guardrails approach, and 5-year Buckets. All of these will help you manage the risks of funding retirement from stocks. But before we get to those, I wanted you to realize that you don’t have to put all your money into stocks to create retirement income. These withdrawal approaches are likely to work, and we know they worked in history. But if you want to buy your own pension and have a guaranteed retirement income, a SPIA could be the right tool for the job.

Creating Retirement Income

Posted On November 5, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

Today, we are starting a five-part series to look at creating retirement income. There are various different approaches you can take when it is time to retire and shift from accumulation to taking withdrawals from your 401(k), IRA, or other investment accounts. It is important to know the Pros and Cons of different approaches and to understand, especially, how they are designed to weather market volatility.

In upcoming posts, we will evaluate SPIAs, the 4% rule, a Guardrails Approach, and 5-Year Buckets. Before you retire, I want to discuss these with you and set up an income plan that is going to make the most sense for you. Today, let’s start with defining the challenges of creating retirement income.

Sequence of Returns Risk

During accumulation, market volatility is not such a bad thing. If you are contributing regularly to a 401(k) and the market has a temporary Bear Market, it is okay. All that matters is your long-term average return. If you invest over 30-40 years, you have historically averaged a return of 8-10 percent in the market. Through Dollar Cost Averaging, you know that you are buying shares of your funds at a more attractive price during a drop.

Unfortunately, market volatility is a big problem when you are retired and taking money out of a portfolio. You calculated your needs and planned to take a fixed amount of money out of your portfolio. If the market averages 8% returns, can you withdraw 8%? That should work, right?

Let’s look at an example. You have a $1 million portfolio, you want to take $80,000 a year in withdrawals. Imagine you retired in 2000, having reached your goal of having $1 million! Here’s what your first three years of retirement might have looked like, with $80,000 annual withdrawals:

Start at $1,000,000, 9% market loss = $830,000 ending value
Year 2: start at $830,000, 12% market loss = $650,400 ending value
Year 3: start at $650,400, 22% market loss = $427,312 ending value

This would blow up your portfolio and now, your $80,000 withdrawal would be almost 20% of your remaining funds. This is Sequence of Returns Risk: the order of returns matters when you are taking income. If you had retired 10 years before these three bad years, you might have been okay, because your portfolio would have grown for a number of years.

Because a retiree does not know the short-term performance of the stock market, we have to take much smaller withdrawals than the historical averages. It’s not just the long-term average which matters. Losses early in your retirement can wreck your income plan.

Longevity Risk

The next big risk for retirement income is longevity. We don’t know how long to plan for. Some people will have a short retirement of less than 10 years. Others will retire at 60 and live for another 40 years. If we take out too much, too early, we risk running out of funds at the worst possible time. There is tremendous poverty in Americans over the age of 80. They didn’t have enough assets and ran out of money. Then they end up having to spend down all their assets to qualify for Medicaid. It’s not a pretty picture.

And for you macho men who intend to die with your boots on – Great. You may wipe out all your money with your final expenses and leave your spouse impoverished. She will probably outlive you by 5-10 years. That’s why 80% of the residents in nursing homes are women. You need to plan better – not for you, but for her.

We plan for a retirement of 30 years for couples. There’s a good chance that one or both of you will live for 25-30 years if you are retiring by age 65. There are different approaches to dealing with longevity risk, and we will be talking about this more in the upcoming articles.

Inflation Risk

Longevity brings up a related problem, Inflation Risk. At 3% inflation, your cost of living will double in 24 years. If you need $50,000 a year now, you might need $100,000 later, to maintain the same standard of living.

A good retirement income plan will address inflation, as this is a reality. Luckily, we have not had much inflation in recent decades, so retirees have not been feeling much pressure. In fact, most of my clients who start a monthly withdrawal plan, have not increased their payments even after 5 or 10 years. They get used to their budget and make it work. Retirement spending often follows a “smile” pattern. It starts high at the beginning of retirement, as you finally have time for the travel and hobbies you’ve always wanted. Spending typically slows in your later seventies and into your eighties, but increases towards the end of retirement with increased health care and assistance costs.

When we talk about a 4% Real Rate, that means that you would start at 4% but then increase it every year for inflation. A first year withdrawal of $40,000 would step up to $41,200 in year two, with 3% inflation. After 30 years (at 3% inflation), your withdrawal rate would be over $94,000. So, when we talk about a 4% withdrawal rate, realize that it is not as conservative as it sounds. Even at a low 3% inflation rate, that works out to $1,903,016 in withdrawals over 30 years. It’s a lot more than if you just were thinking $40,000 times 30 years ($1.2 million).

Periods with high inflation require starting with a lower withdrawal rate. Periods with low inflation enable retirees to take a higher initial withdrawal amount. Since we don’t know future inflation, most safe withdrawal approaches are built based on the worst historical case.

Invest for Total Return

There is one thing which all of our retirement income approaches agree upon: Invest for Total Return, not Income. This is counter-intuitive for many retirees. They want to find high yielding bonds, stocks, and funds. Then, they can generate withdrawal income and avoid selling shares.

It sounds like it would be a rational approach. If you want a 5% withdrawal rate, just buy stocks, bonds, and funds that have a 5% or higher dividend yield. Unfortunately, this often doesn’t work as planned or hoped!

Over the years, I’ve invested in everything high yield: dividend stocks, preferred stocks, high yield bonds, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), Closed End Funds, etc. They can have a small place in a portfolio, but they are no magic bullet.

Problems with Income Investing

Value Trap. Some stocks have high yields because they have no growth. Then if they cut their dividends, shares plummet. Buy the highest dividend payouts and your overall return is often less than the yield and the share price goes no where. (Ask me about the AT&T shares I’ve held since 2009 and are down 14%.)
Default risk. Many high yield investments are from highly levered companies with substantial risk of bankruptcy. Having 5% upside and 100% downside on a high yield bond or preferred stock is a lousy scenario. When you do have the occasional loss, it will be greater than many years of your income.
Poor diversification. High yield investments are not equally present in all sectors of the economy. Often, an income portfolio ends up looking like a bunch of the worst banks, energy companies, and odd-ball entities. These are often very low quality investments.

Instead of getting the steady paycheck you wanted, an income portfolio often does poorly. When your income portfolio is down in a year when the S&P is up 10-20%, believe me, you will be ready to throw in the towel on this approach. Save yourself this agony and invest for total return. Total return means you want capital gains (price appreciation) and income.

For investors in retirement accounts, there is no tax difference between taking a distribution from dividends versus selling your shares. So, stop thinking that you need to only take income from your portfolio. What you want is to have a diversified portfolio and a good long-term rate of return. Then, just make sure you are able to weather market volatility along the way.

Ahead in the Series

Each of the retirement income approaches we will discuss have their own Pros and Cons. We will address each through looking at how they address the risks facing retirees: Sequence of Returns Risk, Longevity Risk, and Inflation Risk. And I’ll have recommendations for which may make the most sense for you. In the next four posts, I’ll be explaining SPIAs, the 4% Rule, a Guardrail Approach, and 5-Year Buckets.

Even if you aren’t near retirement, I think it’s vitally important to understand creating retirement income. Retirement income establishes your finish line and therefore your savings goals. If you are planning on a 4% withdrawal rate, you need $1 million for every $40,000 a year in retirement spending. Looking at your monthly budget, you can calculate how much you will need in your nest egg. Then we can have a concrete plan for how much to invest and how we will get there. Thanks for reading!

Retirement Withdrawals Without Penalty

Posted On September 16, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

If you have multiple retirement accounts, when can you start withdrawals without penalty? This is very important if you want to retire before age 59 ½ and be able to access your money. The rules vary by the type of account, so advance preparation can make it easier to plan your withdrawals.

In our retirement income planning, we carefully choose the order of withdrawals. This can make a big difference in your tax bills. It’s also helpful to have multiple types of accounts so you can select from capital gains, tax-deferred accounts, and tax-free accounts. Let’s start with the early retirement penalties, by account type.

Five Retirement Plans with Different Rules

401(k) and 403(b): 10% penalty on distributions prior to age 59 ½.
A 457 Plan can be accessed after you retire without penalty, regardless of your age. This is the easiest plan for accessing your money.
Traditional IRA: 10% penalty for distributions prior to age 59 ½. This also applies to a SEP-IRA.
SIMPLE IRA: 10% penalty prior to age 59 ½. Additionally, any distributions within the first two year of participation are subject to a 25% Penalty. Ouch. Don’t do that.
Roth IRA. 10% penalty on earnings before age 59 ½, AND the five-year rule. You must have had a Roth open for five years before taking penalty-free withdrawals. So, if you open your first Roth at age 57, you’d have to wait until age 62 to get the tax-free benefit. However, you can access your principal at any time without tax or penalty. It is only when you start drawing down your earnings that the tax and penalty might apply. To withdraw tax-free and penalty-free, you must be over 59 ½ and have had a Roth for at least five years.

Exceptions to the Penalty

For 401(k) and 403(b) Plans: if you are at least age 55 and have separated from service, the penalty is waived. This means that if you retire between 55 and 59 ½, you can access your account without penalty. You would lose this exception if you roll your money into an IRA.
72(t) / Substantially Equal Periodic Payments (SEPP). If you are before age 55 and want to access your 401(k), 403(b), or Traditional IRA, you can take Substantially Equal Periodic Payments and waive the penalty. This means that you commit to taking the same amount from your account, annually, for at least five years or until age 59 ½, whichever is longer. Even if you later don’t want or need the distribution, you must continue to withdraw the same amount.
You may be able to avoid the 10% Penalty on an IRA or 401(k)/403(b) distribution if you qualify for these exceptions:
- Total and Permanent Disability
- An IRS Levy
- Unreimbursed Medical Expenses in excess of 10% of AGI
- Qualified Military Reservists called to Active Duty
There are some exceptions which are available to IRAs (including SEP and SIMPLE), but not allowed from a 401(k) or 403(b). For these exceptions, you may want to roll your 401(k) into an IRA to qualify.
- Qualified higher educational expenses
- Qualified first-time homebuyers, up to $10,000
- Health insurance premiums paid while unemployed

Full List from IRS: Exceptions to Tax on Early Distributions

Using Exceptions and Planning Your Income

I’m happy to let people know about these exceptions for retirement withdrawals without penalty before age 59 1/2. However, you should be very careful about tapping into your retirement accounts in your 30’s, 40’s or 50’s. This money needs to last a lifetime. I sometimes hear of people who take from their 401(k) accounts to buy a car or build a pool. And they have no idea that taking $50,000 now is stealing $400,000 from their future. Here’s the math: At 8%, your money will double every 9 years. That’s the Rule of 72. $50k will become $100k in 9 years, then $200k in 18 years, and $400k in 27 years. (Yes, this is a hypothetical rate of return, not a guarantee.)

The order of withdrawals does matter when planning your retirement income. While we can work to avoid the 10% penalty before age 59 ½, distributions from “Traditional” retirement accounts are still taxable as ordinary income. It’s often better to access your taxable accounts first. When eligible for long-term capital gains rate, that will be lower than IRA distributions which are taxed as ordinary income. And you have a cost basis on a taxable position, so only a portion of your sale ends up as a taxable gain.

Many retirees avoid touching their retirement accounts until they have to take Required Minimum Distributions. RMDs used to be at age 70 ½, but now are age 72. If there are years when you are in a low tax bracket (sabbatical, retired, year off, etc.), it may make sense to do a partial Roth Conversion. Start shifting money from a tax-deferred account into a tax-free account and save yourself on future taxes.

Once you reach age 72, you could be subject to a lot of taxes from RMDs. That’s the problem with being too good at waiting to start distributions from your retirement accounts. You’re creating a bigger tax bill for yourself later. While you are accumulating assets, it pays to plan ahead and know when and how you will be able to actually access your accounts. Have a question about retirement withdrawals without penalty? Let me know how I can help.

Choosing a 457 or a 403(b) Plan

Posted On September 13, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

Does your employer offer both a 403(b) and a 457 Plan? What should you do and what is a 457 anyways? A 457(b) Plan is an employer sponsored retirement plan for state or local government employees. It is a pre-tax, salary deferral plan, with an annual contribution limit of $19,500. Sounds just like a 401(k) or 403(b), right? Yes, but with one very interesting difference.

If you have more than one 401(k) or 403(b), your combined contribution to all 401(k) and 403(b) accounts cannot exceed $19,500 a year. 457 Plans are not included in this rule. That means that if you work for a government employer who offers both a 403(b) and a 457, you can contribute the maximum to both!

IRS Publication 4484: Choose a Retirement Plan for Employees of a Tax-Exempt Government Entity

457 Versus 403(b)

Besides the amazing tax-savings of doubling your contributions, there are a couple of other unique features of 457 plans.

The 457 has the same catch-up feature as a 403(b). Participants age 50 and higher can contribute an extra $6,500 a year. Additionally, if you are within three years of normal retirement age, you may be able to contribute up to two times the usual limit. Instead of $19,500, you could contribute up to $39,000 to a 457. Eligibility for this catch-up is limited by your previous contributions, so check with your HR to calculate your actual amount.

Most employers do not contribute to a 457 Plan. If they do, their contribution is counted towards your $19,500 limit. That’s a difference from a 403(b), where an employer contribution is on top of your individual limit.

There is no 10% penalty on distributions before age 59 ½. At whatever age you retire, you can access your 457 Plan without penalty. This is a big advantage compared to a 403(b) or IRA for people who want to retire early. And it’s a good reason to not rollover a 457 into an IRA. Once it’s in the IRA you would have to wait until after 59 ½ to avoid the penalty.

Let’s Evaluate Your Options

If your employer offers a 457 in addition to a 403(b), look into the 457. Want to contribute the maximum to both plans? That would be $39,000 for 2020, or $52,000 if you are age 50 or above. And potentially even higher if you are within three years of normal retirement age. Of course, you will also want to compare both plans being offered to you. Consider if any match is available, as well as the investment options and expenses of each plan.

You’d love to do both, but not sure you can contribute more than $19,500? Start here: 5 Steps to Boost Your Savings

Whatever type of retirement plan you have, let’s make sure you are taking full advantage of the benefits available to you. Not sure where to begin? I’m here to help, just send me a note.

2020 RMDs Fixed

Posted On June 27, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

At the end of March, the CARES Act waived 2020 RMDs (Required Minimum Distributions) from retirement accounts. This will help people who do not need to take distributions. They can leave their IRAs alone and not be forced to take a taxable withdrawal while the market is down.

Unfortunately, this change created a couple of problems. People could have started their 2020 RMDs as early as January 1, but the waiver didn’t occur until late March. Some people set up monthly distributions from their IRA, but can only put back one, due to the rules regarding 60-Day Rollovers. Later, the IRS said that if you took a withdrawal between February 1 and May 15, you could put it back before July 31. But that left out people who took RMDs in January.

This week, the IRS corrected both of those situations with IRS Notice 2020-51. The ruling will provide relief for anyone who wants to put back their RMDs taken after January 1. You have until August 31 to roll them back into your IRA. Also, if you took multiple withdrawals, you can put them all back. That’s because this one-time rollover is not going to be considered a 60-Day Rollover. (You con only do ONE 60-day rollover in a 365 day period.)

Also, Inherited IRAs (Stretch or Beneficiary IRAs) were never allowed to do 60-day rollovers. Under this week’s ruling, if you had taken your RMD from an Inherited IRA, you can put now return the money to the account through August 31. Unprecedented!

As a reminder, the age for RMDs increased to 72, from 70 1/2, last year. It’s good that the IRS has provided relief from the quagmire Congress created with CARES Act changes in March. So, if you don’t want to take an RMD, you don’t have to. And now you can reverse your RMDs if you had already started.

Planning Opportunities

Currently, tax rates are low, but the Federal rates are supposed to sunset after 2025. So, if you have a choice between paying some taxes now at 12% or 22% that might be better than paying 15%, 25%, or more down the road. Also, if you anticipate needing to take more than your RMD next year, you might be better off spreading that amount over 2020 and 2021, if it will keep you in a lower marginal tax bracket.

Another opportunity afforded by the 2020 RMD waiver is to do a Roth Conversion. If you had planned to pay the taxes on a $50,000 RMD, you could do a $50,000 Roth Conversion instead. Once in the Roth, your $50,000 is growing tax-free with no future RMDs. You paid some taxes at today’s lower rates, and reduced your future RMDs by doing a conversion in 2020.

A Roth Conversion does not count towards your RMD amount. So for people over 72, most never want to do a conversion because they are already paying a lot in taxes on their RMD. It’s best to do conversions after you retire – and are in a low bracket – but before you start RMDs. For people who missed that window, 2020 is the year to do a Roth Conversion.

Retirement Income Expertise

Creating tax-efficient retirement income is our mission and passion. If you want professional advice on establishing your retirement income plan, we can help. Here’s how:

We stay informed. Rules regarding your IRAs and 401(k) accounts have actually seen significant changes in the past couple of years.
Tools, not guesses. We analyze the likelihood of success of your retirement income plan through MoneyGuidePro. You will create a baseline scenario, which we will monitor and adjust based on market changes.
Asset location. Improving tax-efficiency through placing investments which generate ordinary income into tax-deferred accounts, and keeping long-term capital gains and qualified dividends in taxable accounts. Research and select more tax-efficient investment vehicles.
Sequence of Withdrawals. Determine the optimal order of withdrawals by account type and asset. Evaluate when you begin Pension payments and Social Security.

I suspect that there are not a lot of my readers who need to put back RMDs from January and are impacted by Notice 2020-51. But, I do have clients in this exact situation, and this type of detailed work is how I can add value to your financial life. Whether you are already retired, soon to be retired, or it’s just a dream at this point, we can create a plan to take you through the steps you need to feel comfortable about retirement.

Unplanned Retirement

Posted On May 31, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

With job losses this year reaching 40 million, many Americans are being forced into an unplanned retirement. Maybe they wanted to work until age 65 or later and find themselves out of work at age 60 or 62. Job losses due to Coronavirus layoffs may be the most common reason today. However, many people also enter early retirement due to their health or to care for a spouse or parent.

Each year, the Employee Benefits Research Institute publishes a Retirement Confidence Survey Report. Here are some findings from their 2020 report published in April:

48% of current retirees retired earlier than they had planned. Only 6% retired later than they originally planned.
Less than one-half of workers have tried to calculate how much money they will need to live comfortably in retirement.
Of workers who reported their employment status would be negatively effected by the Coronavirus, only 39% felt confident that they will have enough money to last their entire life.

Half of all retirees retired at a younger age then they had planned. That statistic has remained very consistent over the years. In the 1991 report, it was 51%. This is a reality that more people should be preparing for. If you want to retire at 65, 70, or “never”, will you be prepared if you end up retiring at 64, 60, or 55? Certainly, if you enjoy your work, keep on working! But sometimes, the choice is not ours and people find themselves in an early, unplanned retirement.

If you have lost your job or just want to be better prepared should that happen, you need to plan your retirement income carefully.

Unplanned Retirement Steps

You should begin with a thorough and accurate calculation of your spending needs. Not what you want to spend but what you actually spend. Determine your health insurance costs until age 65 and for Medicare after age 65, including Part B premiums, and Medicare Advantage or Medigap coverage, and Part D prescription drug coverage. Read more: Using the ACA to Retire Early.
Reduce your expenses. This will require setting priorities and determining where you can do better. Still, there may be some low hanging fruit where you can save money with little or no change in your lifestyle. Read more: Cut Expenses, Retire Sooner
Calculate your sources of retirement income. Read more: When Can I Retire?
Be careful of starting Social Security at age 62. This is very difficult for people to not access “free money”, everyone wants to do it. Be sure to consider longevity risk and the possible benefits of spending investments first and delaying Social Security for a higher payout later. Read more: Social Security, It Pays to Wait
Consider going back to work, even part-time, to avoid starting retirement withdrawals. The more you delay your retirement, the more likely you will not run out of money later. Here’s the math on why: Stop Retiring Early, People!

Be Prepared for the Unexpected

I think the best way to survive an unplanned retirement is to achieve financial independence at an early age. If you could retire at 50, plan to work until 65, and end up retiring at 60, it’s no problem. This requires saving aggressively and investing prudently from an early age. And that’s why retirement planning isn’t just for people who are 64. Retirement planning should also be for people who are 54, or 44, or even 34. Plan well, and an early retirement could be a good thing. It’s your chance to begin a new adventure!

If – surprise! – you do happen to be facing an unplanned retirement, let’s talk. We can help you evaluate your options for retirement income and establish a process and budget. Our retirement planning software can help you make better informed decisions, including when to start benefits, how much you can withdraw, and if you have enough money to last your lifetime.

It certainly is a shock to people when they end up retiring earlier than they had originally planned. However, it is very common and about half of all retirees are in the same situation. Unfortunately, not everyone who has an unplanned retirement will be having the comfortable years they had hoped. Basing your retirement on the assumption that you will work until age 70 or later may not be realistic. It could even set you up for failure if you end up needing to retire early. Whatever your age, retirement planning is too important to not seek professional help.

Retirement Income at Zero Percent

Posted On May 3, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

With interest rates crushed around the world, how do you create retirement income at zero percent? Fifteen years ago, conservative investors could buy a portfolio of A-rated municipal bonds with 5 percent yields. Invest a million dollars and they used to get $50,000 a year in tax-free income.

Not so today! Treasury bonds set the risk-free rate which influences all other interest rates. Currently, the rate on a 10-year Treasury is at 0.618 percent. One million dollars in 10-year Treasuries will generate only $6,180 in interest a year. You can’t live off that.

You can do a little better with municipal bonds today, maybe 2-3 percent. Unfortunately, the credit quality of municipal bonds is much worse today than it was 15 years ago. A lot of bonds are tied to revenue from toll roads, arenas, or other facilities and are seeing their revenue fall to zero this quarter due to the Coronavirus. How are they going to repay their lenders?

Debt levels have risen in many states and municipalities. Pension obligations are a huge problem. The budget issues in Detroit, Puerto Rico, Illinois, and elsewhere are well known. Shockingly, Senator McConnell last week suggested that states maybe should be allowed to go bankrupt. That would break the promise to Municipal Bond holders to repay their debts. This is an appalling option because it would cause all states to have to pay much higher interest rates to offset the possibility of default. And unlike Treasury bonds which are owned by institutions and foreign governments, Municipal Bonds are primarily owned by American families.

With Treasuries yielding so little and Municipal Bonds’ elevated risks, how do you plan for retirement income today? We can help you create a customized retirement income plan. Here are three parts of our philosophy.

1. Don’t Invest For Income

We invest for Total Return. In Modern Portfolio Theory, we want a broadly diversified portfolio which has an efficient risk-return profile, the least amount of risk for the best level of return. We focus on taking withdrawals from a diversified portfolio, even if it means selling shares.

Why not seek out high dividend yields and then you don’t have to touch your principal? Wouldn’t this be safer? No, research suggests that a heavy focus on high yields can create additional risks and reduce long-term returns. Think of it this way: Company A pays a 5% yield and the stock grows at zero percent; Company B pays no yield but grows at 8%. Clearly you’d be better off with the higher growth rate.

When you try to create a portfolio of high yield stocks, you end up with a less diversified portfolio. The portfolio may be heavily concentrated in just a few sectors. Those sectors are often low growth (think telecom or utilities), or in distressed areas such as oil stocks today. The distressed names have both a higher possibility of dividend cuts, as well as significant business challenges and high debt.

The poster child for not paying dividends is Warren Buffett and his company, Berkshire Hathaway. He’s never paid a dividend to shareholders in over fifty years. Instead, he invests cash flow into new acquisitions of well-run businesses or he buys stocks of other companies. Over the years, the share price of BRK.A has soared to $273,975 a share today. If investors need money, they can sell their shares. This is more tax-efficient, because dividend income is double taxed. The corporation has to pay income taxes on the earnings and then the investor has to pay taxes again on the dividend. When a company grows, the investor only pays long-term capital gains when they decide to sell. And the company can write off the money it reinvests into its businesses.

2. Create a Cash Buffer

Where a total return approach can get you into trouble is when you have to sell stocks in a down market. If you need $2,000 a month and the price of your mutual fund is $10/share, you sell 200 shares. But in a Bear Market when it’s down 20%, you’d have to sell 250 shares (at $8/share) to produce the same $2,000 distribution. When you sell more shares, you have fewer shares left to participate in any subsequent recovery.

This is most problematic in the early years of retirement, a fact which is called the Sequence of Returns Risk. If you have a Bear Market in the first couple of years of retirement, it is more likely to be devastating than if you have the same Bear Market in your 20th year of retirement.

To help avoid the need to sell into a temporary drop, I suggest keeping 6-12 months in cash or short-term bonds so you do not have to sell shares. Additionally, I prefer to set dividends to pay out in cash. If we are receiving 2% stock dividends and 2% bond interest, and need 4% a year, we would have to sell just two percent of holdings. This just gives us more flexibility to not sell.

Also, I like to buy individual bonds and ladder the maturities to meet cash flow needs. If your RMD is $10,000 a year, owning bonds that mature at $10,000 for each of the next five years means that we will not have to touch stocks for at least five years. This approach of selling bonds first is known as a Rising Equity Glidepath and appears to be a promising addition to the 4% Rule.

3. Guaranteed Income

The best retirement income is guaranteed income, a payment for life. This could be Social Security, a government or company Pension, or an Annuity. The more you have guaranteed income, the less you will need in withdrawals from your investment portfolio. We have to be fairly conservative in withdrawal rates from a portfolio, because we don’t know future returns or longevity. With guaranteed income, you don’t have to fear either.

We know that Guaranteed Income improves Retirement Satisfaction, yet most investors prefer to retain control of their assets. But if having control of your assets and the ability to leave an inheritance means lower lifetime income and higher risk of failure, is it really worth it?

I think that investors make a mistake by thinking of this as a binary decision of 100% for or against guaranteed income. The more sophisticated approach is to examine the intersection of all your retirement income options, including when to start Social Security, comparing lump sum versus pension options, and even annuitizing a portion of your nest egg.

Consider, for example, if you need an additional $1,000 a month above your Social Security. For a 66-year old male, we could purchase a Single Premium Immediate Annuity for $176,678 that would pay you $1,000 a month for life. If you instead wanted to set up an investment portfolio and take 4% withdrawals to equal $1,000 a month, you would need to start with $300,000. So what if instead of investing the $300,000, you took $176,678 and put that into the annuity? Now you have guaranteed yourself the $1,000 a month in income you need, and you still have $123,322 that you could invest for growth. And maybe you can even invest that money aggressively, because you have the guaranteed annuity income.

Conclusion

It’s a challenge to create retirement income at zero percent interest rates. Unless you have an incredibly vast amount of money, you aren’t going to get enough income from AAA bonds or CDs today to replace your income. We want to focus on a total return approach and not think that high dividend stocks or high yield bonds are an easy fix. High Yield introduces additional risks and could make long-term returns worse than a diversified portfolio.

Instead, we want to create a cash buffer to avoid selling in months like March 2020. We own bonds with maturities over five years to cover our distribution or RMD needs. Beyond portfolio management, a holistic approach to retirement income evaluates all your potential sources of income. Guaranteed income through Social Security, Pensions, or Annuities, can both reduce market risk and reduce your stress and fear of running out of money. The key is that these decisions should be made rationally with an open mind, based on a well-educated understanding and actual testing and analysis of outcomes.

These are challenging times. If you are recently retired, or have plans to retire in the next five years, you need a retirement income plan. We had quite a drop in March, but recovered substantially in April. The economy is not out of the woods from Coronavirus. I think global interest rates are likely to remain low for years. If you are not well positioned for retirement income, make changes soon, using the strength in today’s market to reposition.

The 12% Roth Conversion

Posted On February 23, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

If you make less than $117,150, you’ve got to look into the 12% Roth Conversion. For a married couple, the 12% Federal Income tax rate goes all the way up to $89,450 for 2023. That’s taxable income. With a standard deduction of $27,700, a couple could make up to $117,150 and remain in the 12% bracket. Above those amounts, the tax rate jumps to 22%.

For those who are in the 12% bracket, consider converting part of your Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA each year. Convert only the amount which will keep you under the 12% limits. For example, if you have joint income of $70,000, you could convert up to $47,150 this year.

This will require paying some taxes today. But paying 12% now is a great deal. Once in the Roth, your money will be growing tax-free. There will be no Required Minimum Distributions on a Roth and your heirs can even inherit the Roth tax-free. Don’t forget that today’s tax rates are going to sunset after 2025 and the old rates will return. At 12%, a $47,150 Roth conversion would cost only $5,658 in additional taxes this year. And then you will have that $47,150 growing with no future tax liabilities.

Take Advantage of the 12% Rate

If you have a large IRA or 401(k), the 12% rate is highly valuable. The key to the 12% Roth Conversion is doing it repeatedly over a period of years. If you have eight years where you can convert $40,000 a year, that’s going to move $320,000 into a tax-free account. Once you start Required Minimum Distributions, you really won’t have a choice about taking those taxable distributions. I have so many clients who don’t need their RMDs, but are forced to take out their money.

Here are some scenarios to consider where you might be in the 12% bracket:

One spouse is laid off temporarily, on sabbatical, or taking care of young children. Use those lower income years to make a Roth Conversion. This could be at any age.
One spouse has retired, the other is still working. If that gets you into the 12% bracket, make a conversion.
Retiring in your 60’s? Hold off on Social Security so you can make Roth Conversions. Once you are 73, you will have both RMDs and Social Security. It is amazing how many people in their seventies are getting taxed on over $117,150 a year once they have SS and RMDs! These folks wish they had done Conversions earlier, because after 73 they are now in the 22% or 24% bracket.

Retiring Soon?

Considering retirement? Let’s say you will receive a $50,000 pension at age 65. (You are lucky to have such a pension – most workers do not!) For a married couple, that’s only $22,300 in taxable income after the standard deduction. Hold off on your Social Security and access your cash and bond holdings in a taxable account. Your Social Security benefit will grow by 8% each year. Spend the cash or bonds and defer the Social Security.

Now you can convert $67,000 a year into your Roth from age 65 to 70. That will move $335,000 from your Traditional IRA to a Roth. Yes, that will be taxable at 12%. But at age 73, you will have a lower RMD – $12,641 less in just the first year.

When you do need the money after 73, you will be able to access your Roth tax-free. And at that age, with Social Security and RMDs, it’s possible you will now be in the 22% tax bracket. I have some clients in their seventies who are “making” over $250,000 a year and are now subject to the Medicare Surtax. Don’t think taxes go away when you stop working!

How to Convert

The key is to know when you are in the 12% bracket and calculate how much to convert to a Roth each year. The 12% bracket is a gift. Your taxes will never be lower than that, in my opinion. If you agree with that statement, you should be doing partial conversions each year. Whether that is $5,000 or $50,000, convert as much as you can in the 12% zone. You will need to be able to pay the taxes each year. You may want to increase your withholding at work or make quarterly estimated payments to avoid an underpayment penalty.

What if you accidentally convert too much and exceed the 12% limit? Don’t worry. It will have no impact on the taxes you pay up to the limit. If you exceed the bracket by $1,000, only that last $1,000 will be taxed at the higher 22% rate. Conversions are permanent. It used to be you could undo a conversion with a “recharacterization”, but that has been eliminated by the IRS.

While I’ve focused on folks in the 12% bracket, a Conversion can also be beneficial for those in the 22% bracket. The 22% bracket for a married couple is from $89,451 to $190,750 taxable income (2023). If you are going to be in the same bracket (or higher) in your seventies, then pre-paying the taxes today may still be a good idea. This will allow additional flexibility later by having lower RMDs. Plus, a 22% tax rate today might become 25% or higher after 2025! Better to pay 22% now on a lower amount than 25% later on an account which has grown.

A Roth Conversion is taxable in the year it occurs. In other words, you have to do it before December 31. A lot of tax professionals are not discussing Roth Conversions if they focus solely on minimizing your taxes paid in the previous year. But what if you want to minimize your taxes over the rest of your life? Consider each year you are eligible for a 12% Roth Conversion. Also, if you are working and in the 12% bracket, maybe you should be looking at the Roth 401(k) rather than the Traditional option.

Where to start? Contact me and we will go over your tax return, wage stubs, and your investment statements. From there, we can help you with your personalized Roth Conversion strategy.

SECURE Act Abolishes Stretch IRA

Posted On January 20, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning, Retirement Planning /

The SECURE Act passed in December and will take effect for 2020. I’m glad the government is helping Americans better face the challenge of retirement readiness. As a nation, we are falling behind and need to plan better for our retirement income.

It’s highly likely that the SECURE Act will directly impact you and your family. Six of the changes are positive, but there’s one big problem: the elimination of the Stretch IRA. We’re going to briefly share the six beneficial new rules, then consider the impact of eliminating the Stretch IRA.

Changes to RMDs and IRAs

1. RMDs pushed to age 72. Currently, you have to begin Required Minimum Distributions from your IRA or 401(k) in the year in which you turn 70 1/2. Starting in 2020, RMDs will begin at 72. This is going to be helpful for people who have other sources of income or don’t need to take money from their retirement accounts. People are living longer and working for longer, so this is a welcome change.

2. You can contribute to a Traditional IRA after age 70 1/2. Previously, you could no longer make a Traditional IRA contribution once you turned 70 1/2. Now there are no age limits to IRAs. Good news for people who continue to work into their seventies!

3. Stipends, fellowships, and home healthcare payments will be considered eligible income for an IRA. This will allow more people to fund their retirement accounts, even if they don’t have a traditional job.

529 and 401(k) Enhancements

4. 529 College Savings Plans. You can now take $10,000 in qualified distributions to pay student loans or for registered apprenticeship programs.

5. 401(k) plans will cover more employees. Small companies can join together to form multi-employer plans and part-time employees can be included

6. 401(k) plans can offer Income Annuities. Retiring participants can create a guaranteed monthly payout from their 401(k).

No More Stretch IRAs

7. The elimination of the Stretch IRA. This is a problem for a lot of families who have done a good job building their retirement accounts. As a spouse, you will still be allowed to roll over an inherited IRA into your own account. However, a non-spousal beneficiary (daughter, son, etc.) will be required to pay taxes on the entire IRA within 10 years.

Existing Beneficiary IRAs (also known as Inherited IRAs or Stretch IRAs) will be grandfathered under the old rules. For anyone who passes away in 2020 going forward, their IRA beneficiaries will not be eligible for a Stretch.

If you have a $1 million IRA, your beneficiaries will have to withdraw the full amount within 10 years. And those IRA distributions will be taxed as ordinary income. If you do inherit a large IRA, try to spread out the distributions over many years to stay in a lower income tax bracket.

For current IRA owners, there are a number of strategies to reduce this future tax liability on your heirs.
Read more: 7 Strategies If The Stretch IRA Is Eliminated

If you established a trust as the beneficiary of your IRA, the SECURE Act might negate the value and efficacy of your plan. See your attorney and financial planner immediately.

IRA Owners Need to Plan Ahead

The elimination of the Stretch IRA is how Congress is going to pay for the other benefits of the SECURE Act. I understand there is not a lot of sympathy for people who inherit a $1 million IRA. Still, this is a big tax increase for upper-middle class families. It won’t impact Billionaires at all. For the average millionaire next door, their retirement account is often their largest asset, and it’s a huge change.

If you want to reduce this future tax liability on your beneficiaries, it will require a gradual, multi-year strategy. It may be possible to save your family hundreds of thousands of dollars in income taxes. To create an efficient pre and post-inheritance distribution plan, you need to start now.

Otherwise, Uncle Sam will be happy to take 37% of your IRA (plus possible state income taxes, too!). Also, that top tax rate is set to go back to 39.6% after 2025. That’s why the elimination of the Stretch IRA is so significant. Many middle class beneficiaries will be taxed at the top rate with the elimination of the Stretch IRA.

From a behavioral perspective, most Stretch IRA beneficiaries limit their withdrawals to just their RMD. As a result, their inheritance can last them for decades. I’m afraid that by forcing beneficiaries to withdraw the funds quickly, many will squander the money. There will be a lot of consequences from the SECURE Act. We are here to help you unpack these changes and move forward with an informed plan.

Using the ACA to Retire Early

Posted On January 15, 2020 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

A lot of people want to retire early. Maybe you’re one of them. The biggest obstacle for many is the skyrocketing cost of health insurance. It’s such a huge expense that some assume they have no choice but to keep working until age 65 when they become eligible for Medicare.

However, if you can carefully plan out your retirement income, you may be eligible for a Premium Tax Credit (PTC). What’s the PTC? It’s a tax credit for buying an insurance plan on the health exchange, under the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”). The key is to know what the income levels are and what counts as income. Then, use other savings or income until after the year in which you reach age 65 and enroll in Medicare. If we can bridge those years, maybe you can retire early by having the PTC cover a significant portion of your insurance premiums.

ACA Income Levels

You are eligible for a PTC if your income is between 100% and 400% of the Federal Poverty levels. For a single person, those income amounts are between $12,140 and $48,560 for 2019. For a married couple, your income would need to be between $16,460 and $65,840. The lower your income, the larger your tax credit. Please note that if you are married filing separately, you are not eligible for the PTC. You must file a joint return.

The PTC will be based on your estimate of your 2020 income. If your actual income ends up being higher, you have to repay the difference. So it is very important that you understand how “income” is calculated for the PTC.

Under the ACA, income is your “Modified Adjusted Gross Income” (MAGI). Unfortunately, MAGI is not a line on your tax return. MAGI takes your Adjusted Gross Income and adds back items such as 100% of your Social Security benefits (which might have been 50% or 85% taxable), Capital Gains, and even tax-free municipal bond interest.

Premium Tax Credit

Here are some examples of the Premium Tax Credit, based on Dallas County, Texas, for non-tobacco users:

Single Male, age 63 with $45,000 income would be eligible for a PTC of $580 a month
Single Male, age 63 with $25,000 income, PTC increases to $811 a month.
Married couple (MF) age 63, with $60,000 income would have a PTC of $1,404/month
Married couple (MF) age 63, with $40,000 income would have a PTC of $1,633/month

(Same sex couples are eligible for a PTC under the same rules. They must be legally married and file a joint tax return.)

For this last example of a 63 year old couple making $40,000, the average cost of a plan after the Premium Tax Credit would be $332 (Bronze), $428 (Silver), or $495 (Gold) a month, for Dallas County. That’s very reasonable compared to a regular individual plan off the exchange, or COBRA.

Check your own rates and PTC estimate on Healthcare.gov

Understand ACA Income

Here’s how you can minimize your income to maximize your ACA tax credit and retire before 65:

Don’t start Social Security or a Pension until at least the year after you turn 65. If you start taking $2,000 a month in income, it means you could lose a $1,400 monthly tax credit.
Don’t take withdrawals from your Traditional IRA or 401(k). Those distributions count as ordinary income.
You can however take distributions from your Roth IRA and that won’t count as income for the PTC. Just make sure you are age 59 1/2 and have had a Roth open for at least five years.
Build up your savings so you can pay your living expenses for these bridge years until age 65.
If you have investments with large capital gains, sell a year before you sign up for the ACA health plan. Although you might pay 15% long-term capital gains tax, you can avoid having those sales count as MAGI in the year you want a PTC.
In your taxable account, sell funds or bonds with low taxable gains in the years you need the PTC. That can be a source of liquidity. Rebalance in your IRA to avoid creating additional gains.
You can pay or reimburse yourself from a Health Savings Account (HSA) for your qualified medical expenses. Those are tax-free distributions.
If you still have earned income when “retired”, a Traditional IRA (if deductible) or a 401(k) contribution will reduce MAGI.
If you sell your home (your primary residence), and have lived there at least two of the past five years, then the capital gain (of up to $250,000 single or $500,000 married) is not counted towards MAGI for the ACA.

Minimum Income for the ACA

An important point: your goal is not to reduce your income to zero. If you do not have income of at least 100% of the poverty level, you are ineligible for the PTC. Instead, you will be covered by Medicaid. That’s not necessarily bad, but to get a large tax credit and use a plan from the exchange, you need to have income of at least $12,140 (single) or $16,460 (married).

Retire Early with the ACA

If you can delay your retirement income until after 65, you may be eligible for the Premium Tax Credit. This planning could add years to your retirement and avoid having to wait any longer. If you want to retire before 65, let’s look at your expenses and accounts. We can create a budget and plan to make it happen using the Premium Tax Credit.

Consider, too, that the plans on the exchange may have different deductibles and co-pays than your current employer coverage. Check if your existing doctors and medications will be covered in-network. Create an estimate of what you might pay out-of-pocket as well as what your maximum out-of-pocket costs would be.

Good Life Wealth is here to be your guide and partner to make early retirement happen. We are a fiduciary planning firm, offering independent advice to help you achieve the Good Life. Email [email protected] to learn more.