Fixed Income: Four Ways to Invest

Posted On April 28, 2015 By Admin In Portfolio Management /

Fixed Income is an essential piece of our portfolio construction, a component which can provide cash flow, stability, and diversification to balance out the risk on the equity side of the portfolio. Although fixed income investing might seem dull compared to the excitement of the stock market, there are actually many different categories of fixed income and ways to invest. As an overview, we’re going to briefly introduce the various tools we use in our fixed income allocations.

1) Mutual Funds. Funds provide diversification, which is vitally important in categories with elevated risks such as high yield bonds, emerging market debt, or floating rate loans. In those riskier areas, we want to avoid individual securities and will instead choose a fund which offers investors access to hundreds of different bonds. A good manager may be able to add value through security selection or yield curve positioning.

While we largely prefer index investing in equities, the evidence for indexing is not as conclusive in fixed income. According to the Standard & Poor’s Index Versus Active (SPIVA) Scorecard, only 41% of Intermediate Investment Grade bond funds failed to beat their index over the five years through 12/31/2014. Compare that to the 81% of domestic equity funds which lagged their benchmark over the same five year period, and you can see there may still be an argument for active management in fixed income.

2) Individual Bonds. We can buy individual bonds for select portfolios, but restrict our purchases to investment grade bonds from government, corporate, and municipal issuers. The advantage of an individual bond is that we have a set coupon and a known yield, if held to maturity. While there will still be price fluctuation in a bond, investors take comfort in knowing that even if the price drops to 90 today, the bond will still mature at 100. It’s difficult for a fund manager to outperform individual bonds today if their fund has a high expense ratio. You cannot have a 1% expense ratio, invest in 3% and 4% bonds, and not have a drag on performance.

Those are the advantages of individual bonds, but there are disadvantages compared to funds, including liquidity, poor pricing for individual investors, and the inability to easily reinvest your interest payments. Most importantly, an investor in individual bonds will have default risk if we should happen to own the next Lehman Brothers, Enron, or Detroit. Bankruptcies can occur, and that’s why we only use individual bonds in larger portfolios where we can keep position sizes small.

3) Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). ETFs offer diversified exposure to a fixed income category, but often with a much lower expense ratio than actively managed funds. ETFs can allow us to track a broad benchmark or to pinpoint our exposure to a more narrow category, with strict consistency. Fixed income ETFs have lagged behind equity ETFs in terms of development and adoption, but there is no doubt that bond ETFs are gaining in popularity and use each year.

4) Closed End Funds (CEFs). CEFs have been around for decades, but are not well known to many investors. Closed End Funds have a manager, like a mutual fund, but issue a fixed number of shares which trade on a stock exchange. The result is a pool of assets which the fund can manage without worry about inflows or redemptions, giving them a more beneficial long-term approach. With this structure, however, CEFs can trade at a premium or a discount to their Net Asset Value (NAV). When we can find a quality fund trading at a steep discount, it can be a good opportunity for an investor to make a purchase. Unfortunately, CEFs tend to have higher volatility than other fixed income vehicles, which can be disconcerting. We don’t currently have any CEF holdings as core positions in our portfolio models, but do make purchases for some clients who have a higher risk tolerance.

Where fixed income investing can become complicated is that within each category (such as municipal bond, high yield, international bond, etc), you also have to compare these four very different ways of investing: mutual funds, individual bonds, ETFs, or CEFs. They each have advantages and risks, so it’s not as easy as simply choosing the one with the highest yield or the strongest past performance. And that’s where we dive in to each option to examine holdings, concentrations, duration, pricing and costs.

There are other ways to invest in fixed income, such as CDs, or annuities, and we can help with those, too. But most of our fixed income investing will be done with mutual funds and ETFs. In larger portfolios, we may have some individual bonds, but will always have funds or ETFs for riskier categories.

Investors want three things from fixed income: high yield, safety, and liquidity. Unfortunately, no investment offers all three; you only get to pick two. Where we aim to create value is through a highly diversified allocation that is tactical in looking for the best risk/reward categories within fixed income.

Will the IRS Inherit Your IRA?

Posted On April 20, 2015 By Admin In Financial Planning /

For several years, there has been a proposal in Washington to eliminate the Stretch IRA, also known as the “Inherited IRA” or “Beneficiary IRA”. Currently, when your beneficiary inherits your IRA, they can keep the account tax-deferred by leaving the assets in a Stretch IRA. While they have to take Required Minimum Distributions, using a Stretch IRA keeps distributions small and taxes low, as well as encourages beneficiaries to use the money gradually rather than spend their inheritance immediately.

Congress is looking for new ways to reduce the budget deficit, and according to IRA expert Ed Slott, it is increasingly probable that the Stretch IRA will be eliminated in the near future. Forcing beneficiaries to withdraw their inherited IRAs will raise billions in tax revenue, while allowing politicians to say that they haven’t raised tax rates.

If the Stretch IRA is repealed, beneficiaries will have to withdraw all of an inherited IRA – and pay taxes on the distributions – within five years. For many retirees, their retirement accounts are their largest assets. Many have accumulated a significant sum, often $1 million or more. If your beneficiary receives a $1 million IRA in one year, regardless of whether they spend the money or invest it, they could owe up to $396,000 in income tax. Even spreading the withdrawal over five years ($200,000 a year) will push any tax payer into a high tax bracket where the IRS will collect 28%, 33%, or more from your IRA.

If you aren’t touching your IRAs because you have other sources of retirement income, such as a pension, Social Security, or other investments, you may have been thinking that you would leave the IRA to your heirs and not take any withdrawals. It’s a very generous plan, but if the Stretch IRA is repealed, a significant amount of your IRA is going to end up in the pockets of the IRS.

What can you do to minimize the taxes and maximize the amount your heirs will receive? Here are three ways to accomplish this:

1) Buy life insurance. Use your IRA money to fund a permanent life insurance policy, such as a level premium Universal Life policy. Life insurance death benefits are received income tax-free. Purchase a $1 million policy for your beneficiaries and they will receive all $1 million tax-free.

For example, a healthy 65-year old male can purchase a $1 million Universal Life policy for as little as $17,218 per year. That is a sizable premium, but not a bad deal to guarantee your heirs a $1 million payout, tax-free. While funding those premiums from your IRA does create taxes, the taxes paid will be lower if you take small withdrawals over a period of many years rather than leaving your heirs in a position of having to take the entire distribution over 5 years (or 1 year if they don’t do the distribution correctly).

If you don’t need the income from your RMDs, using those distributions to fund a life insurance policy may have a significant benefit for your heirs.

2) Leave to Charity. There is a way to pay no tax on your IRA on death and that is to leave the account to a charity. 501(c)(3) non-profit organizations will not have to pay any income tax when they are named as the beneficiary of your IRA or retirement accounts. If you were planning to leave something to charity, make sure that bequest is from your IRA and not from a regular account.

For example:

Scenario 1: You leave a $1 million taxable account to charity and a $1 million IRA to your daughter. The charity receives $1 million, but your daughter will owe taxes up to $396,000 on the IRA, leaving her with as little as $604,000.

Scenario 2: You leave the $1 million taxable account to your daughter and the $1 million IRA to the charity. The charity receives $1 million, your daughter receives $1 million (and a step-up in cost basis), and the IRS gets zip. Much better!

3) Spread out your IRA. If you leave $1 million to one beneficiary, they will have to pay tax on the entire amount. If you leave the IRA to 10 beneficiaries (perhaps grandchildren, nieces, nephews, etc.), the tax due will be much less on $100,000 for 10 tax payers than on $1 million received by one person.

Please note that spouses can roll their deceased spouse’s IRA into their own IRA and treat it as their own. If the Stretch IRA is repealed, this may not be a problem for leaving an IRA to your spouse. However, if your spouse consolidates both of your IRAs into one account, the tax problem for the subsequent heirs will have become even more significant.

The one good thing about IRAs is that you can change your beneficiaries at any time without having to re-do your Will and other documents in your Estate Plan. It is very important to remember that your IRA beneficiary designations override any instructions in your Will, so it is vital to have your beneficiary designations correct and up-to-date.

Not sure where to begin with your Estate Plan? We can help you find the right solution for your family, using our Good Life Wealth planning process. Interested in finding out more about life insurance? I’m an independent agent and can help you choose the best insurance policy for your goals. Call me with your questions, reducing taxes is my passion!

Rethink Your Car Expenses

Posted On April 13, 2015 By Admin In Financial Planning / 1 Comment

“Don’t be penny wise and pound foolish.”

This old nugget of wisdom remains relevant today with many people feeling frustrated that even with a decent income, it seems so difficult to save as much as we’d like for retirement and our other financial goals. Rather than worrying about the pennies, I think investors who want to increase their saving are best served by focusing on their two biggest expenses: their home and cars.

Although not a great investment, a home is generally an appreciating asset and offers some valuable tax deductions. It is possible to have too much home and be house rich and cash poor, but our focus is better first directed on car expenses. I love cars, as do most Americans. A car represents freedom, and as a kid, I couldn’t wait to learn to drive. I took my drivers permit test right on the day of my 16th birthday. We view our cars as a representation of our self, our status, and our importance. Yes, even Financial Advisors are guilty of this irrational vanity! (Or is it insecurity?)

Unfortunately, a car is a depreciating asset and often our biggest expense outside of our home. New car prices seem to have outpaced wage growth, and everyone always wants the latest and greatest. We have to set priorities for how we use our income, and any money we spend on a car is gone. You won’t get it back, it’s just flushed away. That’s money we can’t invest and can’t use to create our future independence and income. If you want to have more of your money working for you, it pays to be smart about your cars. Here are five ways to keep your automotive expenses down.

1) Keep what you have. Cars greatest depreciation is in their first 3-5 years, so if you can keep your car longer, your annual costs will be lower. The more frequently you replace your cars, the more expensive it will be. That’s the number one thing you can do: keep your vehicles 7-12 years. The more often you sell one car and buy another, the higher your costs over time.

2) Don’t fear the occasional repair. Today’s cars are more dependable and long-lasting than ever. Psychologically, people hate repairs, since they seem to always occur at the most inopportune moments. Many people would rather spend $500 a month on a new car payment rather than risk having $1,000 to $2,000 a year in maintenance and unplanned repairs. Does it make sense to spend $6,000 a year to avoid spending $2,000? Probably not, but this is what you are doing if you think that you must sell a car as soon as it is past its warranty.

It’s true, it feels much worse to spend $2,000 on an unplanned repair than to spend the same amount in scheduled car payments. In behavioral finance, this is called “prospect theory”, where people feel the impact of a loss much more severely than the benefit of an equivalent gain. Unfortunately, this can lead to less than ideal decisions, such as buying a $40,000 car because we’re upset over a $400 repair.

If a car is in relatively good shape, it will most likely be cheaper to keep a car with 100,000 miles on the road, rather than replacing it with a new car.

3) Pay cash for your cars. Most people don’t want to spend $60,000 on a new car, even though we all want that $60,000 car. I’d like to first point out the opportunity cost here. At a hypothetical 8% rate of return, spending $60,000 today on a car means not having $120,000 in 9 years, $240,00 in 18 years, or $480,000 in 27 years. That’s a steep price for a car. Which would you rather have, a new car today or potentially an additional $480,000 at retirement?

The strategy of paying cash for cars isn’t just about saving on interest payments; it’s about changing your behavior. Paying cash will force you to spend less, to look at used cars, and to keep your current car longer. Too often, I hear people brag that they got a new car and kept their payment the same. So what! Your current payment was going to end – all you’ve done is keep yourself in debt for another 5 or more years.

If you currently have a car payment, once your payments end, set aside that monthly amount in a savings account for your next car. Paying cash forces you to delay buying a new car. Otherwise, it’s very easy to take a loan for a new vehicle and then rationalize why you “needed” a new car.

4) Save money on maintenance. If you’re handy with tools, you can save a lot of money by doing some routine maintenance yourself. My dealership wanted $499 for a 30,000 mile service consisting of an oil change, tire rotation, brake fluid change, and replacement of two air filters. I did the work myself and spent less than $70 on materials. Oil changes are cheap, so you can’t save much there, but you can save a lot if you learn to replace your brakes.

Don’t try to save money by skipping preventative maintenance. Make sure you change all fluids on the factory recommended schedule. Even if you do some work yourself, I’d also suggest developing a good relationship with an independent mechanic who you trust to give you honest advice.

5) Know when to buy new, buy used, or lease. The price of used cars has skyrocketed in recent years. It used to be that a 1-year old car had lost 20% or more of its value. Today, that can be under 10% for some popular makes and models. This increased residual value has changed some of the old rules about car buying. A gently used 2-3 year old car is, in many cases, not the bargain that it was 10 years ago. In those situations where resale value is very high, you might actually consider buying new. This will improve your future resale value, keep you under warranty longer, and possibly offer better terms on any financing. If you’re planning to keep the car for a long time (7-12 years), starting with a new car can be a good decision.

Buying used cars used to be an easy way to save 30% or more. There are still some good deals on used cars, but consider dependability, any remaining factory warranty, and the cost of maintenance on used vehicles. If you get bored with vehicles after a couple of years, used cars will have less depreciation than buying new.

Leasing is more expensive than keeping your cars for as long as I’d suggest. However, it is still a good alternative to buying a new car every three years, provided you drive fewer miles than stipulated in your lease agreement (often 10,000 or 12,000 miles per year). For models with high residual values, lease rates have stayed low.

Manage your car depreciation like you would any other liability. At the end of the day, a car is just a way to get from point A to point B. It doesn’t define us, who we are, or what our value is to our family or society. If you have other priorities like retiring early, buying a vacation home, or making your first million (or your second or third million), recognize when your car buying is not helping you get closer to achieving your more important goals.

Which IRA is Right For You?

Posted On April 6, 2015 By Admin In Retirement Planning / 3 Comments

We talk about Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) regularly, yet even for long-time investors, there are often some gaps in understanding all your options. This means that many investors are missing chances to save money on taxes, which is the primary advantage of IRAs versus regular “taxable” accounts.

Here’s a primer on the six types of IRAs you might encounter. For each type of IRA, I’m including an interesting fact on each, which you may be something you haven’t heard before! All numbers are for 2015; call me if you have questions on 2014 eligibility.

1) Traditional IRA. This is the original IRA, yet has the most complicated rules. Anyone can contribute to a Traditional IRA. Contributions grow tax-deferred and then you are taxed on any gains when the money is withdrawn.

The confusing part of the Traditional IRA is whether or not you can deduct the contribution from your income taxes. If you are in the 25% tax bracket, a $5,500 contribution will reduce your taxes by $1,375. Anyone can contribute, but not everyone can deduct their contribution. Here are the rules for three scenarios:

a) If you are not eligible for an employer sponsored retirement plan (and your spouse is also not eligible for one), then you (and your spouse) can deduct your IRA contributions.

b) If you are covered by an employer sponsored retirement plan, you can deduct your contribution if your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) is below $61,000 (single), or below $98,000 (married, filing jointly).

c) If your spouse is covered by an employer sponsored plan, but you are not, you can deduct your contribution if your joint MAGI is below $183,000.

I suggest avoiding non-deductible contributions to a Traditional IRA as the deduction is the main benefit. If you’re eligible for a Roth IRA, never make a non-deductible contribution to a Traditional IRA. Non-deductible contributions create a cost basis for your IRAs, which you will have to track for the rest of your life. It’s a headache you don’t need.

Spouses can contribute to an IRA based on joint income, even if they do not have an income of their own. You cannot contribute to a Traditional IRA in the year you reach age 70 1/2. At that point, you must start Required Minimum Distributions. A premature withdrawal, before age 59 1/2, is subject to a 10% penalty, in addition to any income taxes due.

Interesting Fact: A Rollover IRA is a Traditional IRA. You can roll a 401(k) or other employer sponsored plan to a Traditional IRA or a Rollover IRA; they receive the same treatment. 401(k) plans are governed by Federal ERISA rules, whereas IRAs are protected under state creditor laws. If you want to remain under the Federal Regulations, you should designate the account as a “Rollover IRA” and not commingle with a Traditional IRA. I consider this step unnecessary. In Texas, we have robust protection for IRAs, so you are not at risk by consolidating accounts into one Traditional IRA.

2) Roth IRA. In a Roth IRA, you contribute after-tax dollars, so there is no upfront tax deduction. Your account grows tax-free, and there is no tax due on withdrawals in retirement. The Five Year Rule” requires you to have had a Roth open for at least 5 years before you can take tax-free withdrawals in retirement. So, if you open a Roth at age 58, you would not be able to access tax-free withdrawals until age 63.

Not everyone is eligible to contribute to a Roth IRA. To be eligible for a full contribution, your MAGI must be below $116,000 (single), or $183,000 (married).

Interesting Fact: There are no RMDs on Roth IRAs and no age limits. Even after age 70 1/2, you can contribute to a Roth IRA (provided you have earned income) or convert a Traditional IRA to a Roth.

3) “Back Door” Roth IRA. This is not a separate type of account, but rather a funding strategy. If you make too much to contribute to a Roth IRA, you can fund a Non-Deductible Traditional IRA, then immediately convert the account to a Roth. You pay taxes on any gains, but since there were no gains, your tax due is zero. Very important: the conversion is only tax-free if you do not have any existing Traditional IRAs.

Both Traditional and Roth IRAs are subject to a combined contribution limit of $5,500, or $6,500 if age 50 or older.

Interesting Fact: Thinking of rolling your old 401(k) to an IRA? Don’t do it if you might want to do a Back Door Roth in the future. Rolling to an IRA will eliminate your ability to do a tax-free Roth conversion. Instead, leave your old 401(k) where it is, or roll it into your new 401(k).

4) Stretch IRA, also called an Inherited IRA or a Beneficiary IRA. If you are named as the beneficiary of an IRA, the inherited account is taxable to you. If you take the money out in the first year, it will all be taxable income. With a Stretch IRA, you can keep the inherited IRA tax-deferred, and only take Required Minimum Distributions each year. Note that Stretch IRA RMDs are based on the original owner’s age, so you cannot use a regular RMD calculator to determine the amount you must withdraw.

Interesting Fact: a spouse who inherits an IRA from their deceased spouse does not have to do a Stretch IRA. Instead, he or she can roll the IRA into their own account and treat it as their own. This is especially beneficial if the surviving spouse is younger than the decedent.

5) SEP-IRA. SEP stands for Simplified Employee Pension. A SEP is an employer sponsored plan where the employer makes a contribution of up to 25% of the employee’s compensation, with a contribution cap of $53,000. Since it is an employer plan, you cannot discriminate and must make the same contribution percentage for all employees. As a result, pretty much the only people who use a SEP are those with no employees. The SEP is most popular with people who are self-employed, sole proprietors, or who are paid as an Independent Contractor via 1099 rather than as an Employee via W-2.

Let’s say you have a regular job and also do some freelancing as an Independent Contractor. You can contribute to the 401(k) through your employer AND contribute to the SEP for your 1099 work. You can also do a SEP in addition to a Traditional or Roth IRA.

Interesting Fact: The SEP is the only IRA which you can fund after April 15. If you file a tax extension, you have until you file your taxes to fund your SEP. We can accept 2014 SEP contributions all the way up to October 15, 2015.

6) SIMPLE IRA is the Savings Incentive Match Plan for Employees. It’s like a 401(k), but just for small businesses with fewer than 100 employees. Employees who choose to participate will have money withheld from their paycheck and invested in their own account. The employer matches the contribution, up to 3% of the employee’s salary. This is a great option for small businesses because the costs are low and the administration and reporting requirements are easy. The 2015 contribution limit is $12,500, or $15,500 if over age 50.

Interesting Fact: Traditional and SEP IRAs have a 10% penalty for premature distributions prior age 59 1/2. For a SIMPLE IRA, if you withdraw funds within two years of opening the account, the penalty is 25%. Contributions made by both the employee and employer are immediately vested, so the high penalty is to discourage employees from raiding their SIMPLE accounts to spend the employer match.

IRAs are a very important tool for wealth accumulation, yet a lot of investors miss chances to participate and maximize their benefits. Since the contribution limits are low, it can be tough to make up for lost years. Your best bet: meet with me, bring your tax return and your investment statements and we can discuss your options.

Our Investment Process

Posted On April 1, 2015 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Portfolio Management / 1 Comment

An investment approach designed to support retirement income planning, tax considerations, and long-term decision-making.

Request an Introductory Conversation 👉 /appointment/
A brief introductory call to see if working together may be appropriate.

How We Think About Investing in Retirement

For retirees and pre-retirees, investing often serves a different purpose than it did during the accumulation years. Rather than focusing solely on growth, investment decisions are typically made in the context of income needs, taxes, time horizons, and long-term flexibility.

Our investment process is designed to support broader financial planning conversations — particularly retirement income planning and tax planning — rather than operate as a standalone strategy.

Our Investment Process in Practice

Step 1: Understand the Planning Context

Investment decisions begin with an understanding of your broader financial situation, including retirement timing, income needs, tax considerations, and existing accounts.

Step 2: Establish an Appropriate Investment Strategy

Based on the planning context, we develop an investment strategy aligned with time horizons, cash flow needs, and long-term objectives — rather than short-term market movements.

Step 3: Portfolio Construction

Portfolios are constructed using diversified investments intended to reflect the agreed-upon strategy, account types, and planning considerations.

Step 4: Ongoing Monitoring and Adjustment

As circumstances, markets, and planning needs evolve, portfolios are monitored and adjusted as part of an ongoing planning relationship.

How Investment Decisions Are Coordinated With Planning

Investment management does not exist in isolation. Portfolio structure influences how retirement income is generated and how taxes are experienced over time. For this reason, investment decisions are coordinated with retirement income planning and tax planning considerations whenever appropriate.

This integrated approach helps ensure that investment decisions are informed by the broader financial picture rather than disconnected objectives.

Retirement Income Planning → /retirement-income-planning/

Tax Planning → /tax-planning/

Who This Investment Approach May Be a Good Fit For

Our investment process is typically appropriate for individuals who:

Are approaching retirement or already retired
Want investment decisions informed by income and tax planning
Prefer an ongoing advisory relationship
Value a fiduciary, planning-centered approach

We work with retirees and pre-retirees nationwide through a virtual advisory relationship.

Next Step

If you are considering how investment management fits into your broader retirement and tax planning, an introductory conversation can help determine whether working together makes sense.

Request an Introductory Conversation 👉 /appointment/
No obligation. Designed for retirees and pre-retirees.

Growth Versus Value: An Inflection Point?

Posted On March 30, 2015 By Admin In Portfolio Management /

Over time, Value stocks outperform Growth stocks. There are a number of reasons why this has held true over the history of the market. Value stocks may include sectors which are currently out of favor and inexpensive. Investors, on the other hand, are sometimes willing to pay too much for a sensational growth story rather than a boring, blue chip company. Often, those great sounding stocks flame out rather than shooting higher as hoped. The result is that the long-term benefit of value strategies has persisted.

Although the “Value Anomaly” is a historical fact, it hasn’t worked in all periods, and we’re at such a point in time now. Growth has actually outperformed value over the past decade. Even though growth beat value in only 5 of the past 10 calendar years, the cumulative difference is notable. Over the past 10 years, the Russell 1000 Growth fund (IWF) has returned an annualized 9.18% versus 7.10% for the Russell 1000 Value (IWD). And so far this year, Growth (IWF) is up 5%, whereas Value (IWD) has gained only 0.63%.

The last time growth showed a marked divergence from value was the 90’s. And at that time, we saw the valuations of growth companies rise to unsustainable levels. This largely occurred in the tech sector, where for example, we saw Cicso trade for more than 200 times earnings, and become the most valuable company in the world in 2000. Eventually, growth corrected with the bursting of the tech bubble, and we saw value stocks return to favor. These are the cycles of the market, as inevitable as the seasons, although not as consistent, predictable, or rational!

I don’t think we’re in bubble territory for the market today, but some popular growth names have certainly started to become expensive and value is looking like a relative bargain. Looking at the top 10 stocks in the both indices, the growth stocks have an average PE of 27, versus 17 for the 10 largest value companies. Some of that difference is Facebook, #4 on the Growth list, with a PE of 75. However, the difference in valuation is across the board. Two of the largest value companies, Exxon Mobil and JPMorgan Chase have a PE of only 11.

So, what are the take-aways from the Growth/Value divergence?

Growth has outperformed value in recent years. This will not continue forever.
Our portfolios are diversified, owning both growth and value segments. We have a slight tilt towards value, which we will continue. When value returns to favor, this will benefit not only pure value funds, but will also likely help dividend strategies, low volatility ETFs, and fundamentally-weighted funds.
As the overall market becomes more expensive, I would expect to see that we will move from a unified market, where all stocks move up or down together, to a more segmented market, where stocks move more based on their valuation and fundamentals. Global macro-economics have been the primary driver of stock prices in recent years, but this should abate somewhat as the recovery continues.

We won’t know if we’ve reached an inflection point, where value will overtake growth, until well after the fact. Growth can’t outperform indefinitely, and as investors become more cautious, value stocks will start to look more and more attractive. That’s what we’re seeing in the market today and why we started to increase our value holdings in 2015.

Source of fund data: Morningstar, through 3/27/2015

How Much Can You Withdraw in Retirement?

Posted On March 24, 2015 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

With corporate pensions declining in use, retirees are increasingly dependent on withdrawals from their 401(k)s, IRAs, and investment accounts. The challenge facing investors is how to plan these withdrawals and not run out of money even though we don’t know how long we will live or what returns we will receive in the market on our portfolio.

Pensions and Social Security provide a consistent source of income that you cannot outlive. When I run Monte Carlo simulations – computer generated outcomes testing thousands of possible scenarios – we find that the larger the percentage of monthly needs that are met from guaranteed sources, the lower chance the investor will run out of money due to poor market performance from their portfolio.

If you do have a pension, it is very important to consider all angles when deciding between a lump sum payout and participating in the pension for the rest of your life. It is not a given that you will be able to outperform the pension payments, especially if you are healthy and have a long life expectancy.

The most obvious way to avoid running out of money (called longevity risk by financial planners) would be to annuitize some portion of your portfolio through the purchase of an immediate annuity from an insurance company. While that would work, and is essentially the same as having a pension, very few people do this. You’d be giving up all control of your assets and reducing any inheritance for your beneficiaries. With today’s low interest rates, you’d probably be less than thrilled with the return. For example, a 65-year old male who places $100,000 in a single life immediate annuity today would receive $542 a month.

The problem with annuitization, besides giving up your principal and not leaving anything for your heirs, is that it doesn’t allow for any increase in expenditures to account for inflation. There are three approaches we might use to structure a withdrawal program for a retiree.

1) Assume a fixed inflation rate. In most retirement planning calculators, projected withdrawals are increased by inflation to maintain the same standard of living. After all, who doesn’t want to keep their standard of living? The result of this approach is that the initial withdrawal rate then must be pretty low. 20 years ago, the work of William Bengen established the “4% rule” which found that a withdrawal rate of 4% would fund a 30-year retirement under most market conditions.

On a $1 million portfolio, 4% is $40,000 a year. But that is just the first year. With 3% inflation, we’d plan on $41,200 in year two, and $42,436 in year three. After 24 years, withdrawals would double to $80,000. The 4% rule is not the same as putting your money in a 4% bond; it’s the inflation which requires starting with a low initial rate.

While we should plan for inflation in retirement, this method is perhaps too rigid in its assumptions. If a portfolio is struggling, we’re not going to continue to increase withdrawals by 3% and spend the portfolio to zero. We have the ability to respond and make adjustments as needed.

2) Take a flexible withdrawal strategy. We may be able to start with a slightly higher initial withdrawal rate if we have some flexibility under what circumstances we could increase future withdrawals. In my book, Your Last 5 Years: Making the Transition From Work to Retirement, I suggest using a 4% withdrawal rate if you retire in your 50’s, a 5% rate if you start in your 60’s, and 6% if retiring in your 70’s. I would not increase annual withdrawals for inflation unless your remaining principal has grown and your withdrawal rate does not exceed the original 4, 5, or 6%.

This doesn’t guarantee lifetime income under all circumstances, but it does give a higher starting rate, since we eliminate increases for inflation if the portfolio is shrinking. Under some circumstances, it may even be prudent to reduce withdrawals to below the initial withdrawal amount temporarily. That’s where having other sources of guaranteed income can help provide additional flexibility with your planning.

3) Use an actuarial method. This means basing your withdrawals on life expectancy. Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) are a classic example of an actuarial strategy: you take your account value and divide by the number of years of life expectancy remaining. If your life expectancy is 25 years, we take 1/25, or 4%. The next year, the percentage will increase. By the time someone is in their 90’s, their life expectancy will be say three years, suggesting a 33% withdrawal rate, which may work, but obviously will not be sustainable. However, the more practical problem with using the RMD approach is that many people aren’t able to cut their spending by 20% if their portfolio is down by 20% that year. So even though it has a sound principle for increasing withdrawals, the withdrawal amounts still require flexibility based on market results.

But there are other ways to use the actuarial concept, and even my approach of different rates at different retirement ages is based on life expectancy. There’s no single method that will work in all circumstances, but my preference is to take a flexible strategy. But this does mean being willing to reduce spending, and forgo or even cut back inflation increases, if market conditions are weak.

We have a number of different tools available to evaluate these choices throughout retirement, but the other key factor in the equation is asset allocation. Bengen found that his 4% rule worked with equity allocations between 50% and 75%. Below 50% equities, the portfolio struggles to keep up with inflation and withdrawals become more likely to deplete the assets in the 30-year period. Above 75% equities, the portfolio volatility increases and rebalancing benefits decrease, increasing the number of periods when the 4% strategy would have failed.

When sorting through your options, you need candid and informed advice about what will work and under what circumstances it would not work. We hope for the best, but still have a plan for contingencies if the market doesn’t cooperate as we’d like. We will be able to consider all our options as the years go by and be proactive about making adjustments and corrections to stay on course. For any investor planning for a 30-year retirement, it’s not a matter of if the market will have a correction, but when. It’s better to have discussed how we will handle that situation in advance, rather than waiting until the heat of the moment.

Deferral Rates Trump Fund Performance, Rebalancing as Key to Retirement Plan Success

Posted On March 16, 2015 By Admin In Retirement Planning /

A study by the Putnam Institute, “Defined Contribution Plans: Missing the forest for the trees?” contends that while a number of variables, such as fund selection, asset allocation, portfolio rebalancing, and deferral rates all contribute to a defined contribution plan’s effectiveness — or lack thereof — it is deferral rates that should be placed near the top of the hierarchy when considering ways to boost retirement saving success.¹

As part of its analysis, the research team created a hypothetical scenario in which an individual’s contribution rate increased from 3% of income to 4%, 6%, and 8%. After 29 years, the final balance jumped from $138,000, to $181,000, $272,000, and $334,000, respectively.

Even with a just a 1% increase — to a 4% deferral rate — the participant’s final accumulation would have been 30% greater than it would have been using a fund selection strategy defined as the “Crystal Ball” strategy, in which the plan sponsor uses a predefined formula to predict which funds may potentially perform well for the next three-year period. Further, the 1% boost in income deferral would have had a wealth accumulation effect nearly 100% larger than a growth asset allocation strategy, and 2,000% greater than rebalancing. Of course these results are hypothetical and past performance does not guarantee future results.

One key takeaway of the study was for plan sponsors to find ways to communicate the benefits of higher deferral rates to employees, and to help them find ways to do so.

Retirement Savings Tips

The Employee Benefit Research Institute reported in 2014 that 44% of American workers have tried to figure out how much money they will need to accumulate for retirement, and one-third admit they are not doing a good job in their financial planning for retirement.² Are you? If so, these strategies may help you to better identify and pursue your retirement savings goals:

Double-check your assumptions. When do you plan to retire? How much money will you need each year? Where and when do you plan to get your retirement income? Are your investment expectations in line with the performance potential of the investments you own?

Use a proper “calculator.” The best way to calculate your goal is by using one of the many interactive worksheets now available free of charge online and in print. Each type features questions about your financial situation as well as blank spaces for you to provide answers. But remember, your ultimate goal is to save as much money as possible for retirement regardless of what any calculator might suggest.

Contribute more. At the very least, try to contribute enough to receive the full amount of any employer’s matching contribution. It’s also a good idea to increase contributions annually, such as after a pay raise.

Retirement will likely be one of the biggest expenses in your life, so it’s important to maintain an accurate cost estimate and financial plan. Make it a priority to calculate your savings goal at least once a year.

Today’s blog content is provided courtesy of the Financial Planning Association.

Source/Disclaimer:

¹Putnam Institute, Defined Contribution Plans: Missing the forest for the trees?, May 2014.

²Ruth Helman, Nevin Adams, Craig Copeland, and Jack VanDerhei. “The 2014 Retirement Confidence Survey: Confidence Rebounds–for Those With Retirement Plans,” EBRI Issue Brief, no. 397, March 2014.

Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by Wealth Management Systems Inc. or its sources, neither Wealth Management Systems Inc. nor its sources guarantees the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. In no event shall Wealth Management Systems Inc. be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of the content.

Three Things Millennials Can Teach Us About Money

Posted On March 9, 2015 By Admin In Financial Planning /

As a financial planner, I spend a lot of time thinking about how to approach the different goals of my clients. While each client has a unique set of needs and circumstances, I’ve been studying and observing generational trends with a keen interest. Baby Boomers are approaching retirement, or newly retired, and are redefining what retirement means compared to their parents. Gen Xer’s (born 1965-1979), like myself, are mid-career and working towards myriad goals with cautious self-reliance. And then there are Millennials (born 1980-2000), who are now starting their careers and families and making their own stamp on financial planning.

Each generation has unique ways of doing things, and it’s not simply that today’s 30 year old has the same issues as a 65 year old had 35 years ago. We often hear about the financial challenges facing Millennials: student debt, living at home longer, less decisive about careers, delaying starting a family. There’s no doubt Millennials have been shaped by two recessions, a war, a housing bubble and collapse, and a difficult job market for entry level employees. But, there’s more than enough articles detailing those concerns. I want acknowledge three of the things they are doing right, because there are plenty of Millennials who have high expectations and are well on their way to becoming wealthy.

1) Millennials participate in their investing. Growing up with Google, cell phones, and the Internet, Millennials are going to gather information, confirm details, and find out what their friends and colleagues are doing. Comfortable with technology, they favor paperless banking and are more organized than previous generations, keeping track of their finances using online tools, mobile apps, and programs like Mint or Quicken. We can have meetings by video conference or webinar, and there will be no difference between having an advisor who is one mile away or a thousand miles away. Technology is here to stay, and is really only getting started as far as its impact on the planning process.

Millennials are more personally involved in their finances, seeking to be partners with advisors, rather than delegators. The more Millennials read about the rationale behind using index funds, the more indexing makes sense. They want to find an investment solution that works and are not as competitive about wanting to “beat the market”. Even when they use index funds, they want a plan which is customized just for them and their goals, and not a cookie-cutter plan. In that regards, they are actually more likely to value financial planning than Gen X.

2) Millennials are more frugal and less materialistic. They recognize that buying things you can’t afford with a credit card is a mistake. And while they want the financial freedom to express themselves as a unique individual, they are less interested in trying to impress others with a display of wealth. They understand that having more “things” doesn’t make you happier. Overall, Millennials are making good decisions as consumers and would likely have less debt than previous generations, if it weren’t for the dramatic rise in student loan debt in recent years.

3) Millennials recognize when renting is a better fit for their lifestyle than owning a home. They saw the effects of the housing crisis and likely know people who went through foreclosure and lost their homes. Unlike previous generations, they no longer consider home ownership as the definition of adulthood or as a sure-fire investment. Baby Boomers typically bought a house as soon as they could, upsized when possible, and used their home equity to fund their lifestyles. Millennials want community and convenience and are less willing to tolerate a long commute to the suburbs to afford the largest home possible.

For Millennials who are career driven, renting offers the flexibility to move anywhere in the country as their career dictates. This change reflects the new reality of today’s job market: employees aren’t going to have a career with just one or two companies. They need to move to where the jobs are located.

Millennials outnumber Gen X nearly 2 to 1, so they will have a significant impact on the development of our economy, business, and even the future delivery of financial planning. I don’t view the generational differences as right or wrong, or better or worse. Each is a product of their environment. What I am interested in is understanding each investor fully so that our plan can be as thorough and complete as possible in helping each achieve their goals. That’s my commitment to you and why I built Good Life Wealth Management: to provide the flexibility and resources to enable investors of any age to create and execute a plan that works.

And for those of use who are a little more experienced, keep an open mind – it’s never too late to learn a few new tricks from the younger generation!

Retiring Soon? How to Handle Market Corrections.

Posted On March 2, 2015 By Admin In Retirement Planning /

I was recently asked “How would you protect a soon to be retired investor against the inevitable market correction that will occur in the next couple of years?” It’s a great question and I think it’s very important that investors understand the risks they take when investing. Having not had a significant correction in six years, we may be well overdue. Of course, some forecasters have been calling for a correction for a couple of years, and yet the S&P 500 was up 13% last year and 32% the year before. That’s the problem with trying to time the market – it’s not possible to predict the future and it’s too easy to miss good returns by sitting on the sidelines. So, how should investors position their money if they’re a couple years from retirement?

The first thing is to frame the investment portfolio in a broader context. Someone who is four years from retirement does not have a four-year time horizon, but more likely, a 30-year time horizon, so we want to focus on finding the best solution for the whole 30-year period. That means we have to balance the desire for short-term safety with the long-term need to keep up with inflation and not run out of money. While retirement may be a one-time event, retirement planning is an on-going process.

In addition to withdrawals from accounts, retirees will have other, guaranteed, sources of income, such as Social Security, Pensions, or Annuity payments. These may cover a significant amount of fixed expenses, which allows the investment portfolio to be used in a somewhat discretionary manner during retirement. With corrections occurring every 5 to 6 years on average, a retiree could experience five or more corrections over the course of a 30-year retirement.

The reality is that we have to be willing to accept some level of volatility in a portfolio in exchange for the potential for a higher long-term rate of return. We start with a risk tolerance questionnaire to get to know each client and help select a target asset allocation that will be the most likely to accomplish their financial objectives with the least amount of risk. There’s no magic bullet to give investors a great return and no risk, so it truly is a decision of selecting an acceptable level of risk that will fulfill their planning needs. Almost everyone needs to have a mix of safer assets and assets which offer an opportunity for higher long-term growth. Some of my clients have 50 percent or more in bonds, and that may work for their situation.

With the portfolio construction, I am very focused on creating a strong risk/return profile for each of my models. We diversify broadly to reduce correlation of assets and systematically rebalance each portfolio on an annual basis. Rebalancing provides a discipline of selling assets which have run up and buying assets which are cheaper. We can eliminate some types of risk altogether, including company-specific risks (by owning the whole market rather than a handful of individual stocks), and manager risks. We know that typically 65-80% of equity managers under perform their benchmark over five years, but since we don’t know which managers outperform in advance, choosing managers is simply not a good bet to be making. That’s why we use index funds rather than selecting “five star” fund managers for our core holdings – it puts the odds in your favor.

We buy Low Volatility ETFs for some client portfolios, and I think many investors would be interested in learning about ways to reduce market fluctuations. Low Volatility funds select a basket of the least risky stocks from a larger index. They’re designed to offer a return similar to traditional indexes over time, but with a noticeably lower standard deviation of returns. They’re fairly new strategy (available the last three years or so), but I think are one of the more compelling ideas in portfolio management today. Read more here: http://www.ishares.com/us/strategies/manage-volatility

Lastly, when working with a new client, we can dollar cost average over six months, so if we do have a pullback in the fall (as we did last October), we would have cash to put to work. The key is that even someone who is planning on retiring in the next couple of years needs to have a clear plan that addresses both their accumulation needs and a retirement income strategy. That’s our focus at Good Life Wealth Management and we’d be happy to meet with you and discuss how to accomplish your retirement goals.