2015 Mid-Year Market Update

Posted On July 6, 2015 By Admin In Portfolio Management /  

Blank Notebook

We’re half way through 2015. How are the markets are doing and what does this mean to investors? Here’s a report card and our thoughts on the second half of the year.

US Stocks have had a stubbornly stable year, staying in a very narrow band of just a couple of percent above and below where we started the year. The S&P 500 Index was up 1.23% as of June 30. Although the US economic recovery is stronger and further along than the rest of the world, this was already reflected in US stock prices on January 1. So even with significant issues facing Europe, including high unemployment in several countries and the continuing Greek debt debacle, foreign stocks have outperformed US stocks so far in 2015. We have more weight in US stocks in our portfolios, which means that our home bias has held back our performance slightly compared to the market-cap weighting of our benchmark, the MSCI All-Country World Index.

Looking at stock styles, small cap was ahead of large cap in both US and foreign stocks. Growth continued to outperform Value globally. Emerging markets rallied from a lackluster 2014, performing slightly better than US large cap. The higher performance of foreign stocks over US stocks was in spite of the headwinds of the US currency’s strength in 2015. If we look at foreign stocks in their local currencies, their performance was even higher than in dollar terms.

The US aggregate bond index was down 0.1% in the first half of the year, with treasury bond yields finally starting to rise. Our bond funds have fared slightly better than AGG so far this year, with most posting small but positive returns. Unfortunately, we remain at an uncomfortable point in time where both stocks and bonds seem to carry above average valuations and risks. While I believe forecasting should be left to weathermen, returns over the next couple of years will likely be lower than those over the previous five years.

Volatility has been muted this year, but we can’t assume that will continue indefinitely. There are concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, or a bond default in Greece or Puerto Rico, but these are known problems that have been ongoing for more than a year. What I fear could be more likely to roil the market would be some unknown event which no one is expecting or predicting.

The top performing holding in our portfolios was SCZ, the iShares EAFE Small Cap ETF, which was up 10.49% through June 30. The worst performer was VNQ, the Vanguard REIT Index, which was down 6.30% over the same period. Interestingly, these two positions were also the best and worst performing funds in 2014, but reversed. Last year, VNQ was up more than 30% while SCZ was down 6%. If you looked at the numbers after December 31, you probably would have liked VNQ and bought more of it, and disliked SCZ, and sold it. Both of those decisions would have been losing trades for the first half of 2015. And that’s the problem with trading based on performance – you’re buying yesterday’s winners and not tomorrow’s. It is usually better to not chase performance, stick with a diversified portfolio, and rebalance to a set allocation when positions move away from their target weighting.

We take a disciplined approach to portfolio construction, but accept that we have no control over what the market is going to do. The factors which we can control include: having a diversified allocation, minimizing costs and taxes, and most importantly, managing our behavior by making good decisions. While the first half of 2015 has been a sleeper, we should be mentally prepared for the market to throw a few surprises at us in the second half of the year. If or when this occurs, it will be important to hold course or better yet, invest new money and dollar cost average. No matter what happens, you can always call me and I promise to be available to talk or meet with you to review your individual situation and make sure we remain on track to meet your goals.

Data from Morningstar.com, as of 7/5/2015.
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The Best Way to Get in Shape

Posted On June 29, 2015 By Admin In Behavioral Finance /  

Hop, Skip, Jump

In December, after years of good intentions and a couple of false starts, I finally joined a gym and hired a personal trainer. I meet with my trainer once a week and workout two or three times separately. Previously, I thought I could just get in shape on my own, but it was always too easy to find an excuse why today wasn’t a good day to exercise. And then days become weeks, you find other demands more pressing, and you just never get around to it.

Working with my trainer, Clint, has been great. I’m getting in shape and feel very confident that I’m now on the right path. Looking back, my only thought is that I wish I had gotten started much sooner with this process. Why are people more successful with a personal trainer than on their own? Here’s what a coach has to offer:

1) Knowledge. Clint has spent thousands of hours in education and his certifications demonstrate commitment to being qualified and skilled to help others. As for me, I have neither the time nor the interest to learn this information. Since you don’t know what you don’t know, it’s smart to seek out expert, objective advice.

2) Experience. Clint has worked with many clients and knows what works. While everyone’s individual situation is slightly different, a professional trainer has probably seen a lot of clients who have similar needs to mine.

3) A written plan. We started with a physical assessment to document my starting point, and after discussing my goals and commitment, developed a plan unique for me. Now I know what I need to do on a daily basis in order to reach my long-term goals.

4) The right tools. My trainer selects the most appropriate equipment for me to use and makes sure I use them correctly for maximum benefit and to avoid injury. When you combine discipline and consistency with doing the right things, good results happen.

5) Motivation. We have a workout schedule which has become a habit and routine. It’s rewarding to see our plan working, and when there are occasional set-backs, it’s helpful to have Clint’s patience, support, and encouragement to get back on track.

While I certainly suggest others take good care of their health and bodies, here’s what I want people to recognize: just as using a personal trainer is the best way to get in shape physically, using a financial planner is the best way to get in shape financially. What we offer is very similar. As a CFP(R) practitioner, I help individuals accomplish their financial goals, bringing professional knowledge, years of experience, a written plan, the right tools, and ongoing motivation.

Can you get in shape on your own? Of course it’s possible, but you’re more likely to be successful with professional guidance. You can be sure that athletes and actors always have a personal trainer or a team of trainers. Likewise, many of the most financially successful individuals I’ve met, including multi-millionaire entrepreneurs, board members of Fortune 500 companies, and Harvard-trained surgeons all use a financial advisor. It’s not a question of whether or not they’re not smart enough to do it on their own, it’s that they recognize the value in hiring an expert and the benefit that relationship can bring to their financial well-being.

If you are like I was, having good intentions, but procrastinating getting going, it’s time to give me a call. We will put together a financial plan you can understand and I’ll be there in the months and years ahead to help you stay on track with accomplishing your goals. If you’re waiting for tomorrow, don’t. Aside from yesterday, today is the best day to get started.

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Why You Should Not Hold Bonds to Maturity

Posted On June 22, 2015 By Admin In Portfolio Management /  

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If you own individual bonds, as opposed to bond funds, you have the option to sell your bonds rather than holding them to maturity. There are a number of reasons why you might sell a bond before it matures, but we’re going to focus on an important opportunity bond investors have today to enhance returns through roll yield. 

In recent years, short-term interest rates have been very low, which causes a steep yield curve. A corporate bond might have a yield to maturity of 3-5% when it has 5-10 years to maturity, but a similar bond with only one year before maturity may yield only 1-2%. Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship, so as bonds near maturity, their yields shrink and the prices of those bonds increase.

Here’s an example: Let’s say we purchase a 5-year bond with a 5% coupon at par ($1000). One year later, the bond has four years remaining, and let’s say that similar bonds have a yield to maturity of 4%. The price of our 5% bond is now $1036. If we sell the bond after one year, we will have received $50 in interest, and we will made $36 in capital gains, for a total increase of $86, or 8.6%. The $36 gain is the roll yield, and it nicely enhanced our return from 5% to 8.6% for just one year.

When you buy most bonds, it’s not likely that the price of the bond will stay the same until maturity. Because of the steepness of today’s yield curve (low short-term rates), bond investors can benefit from selling bonds above par before maturity.  If we go back to our example of a 5% coupon bond, let’s fast forward a couple of years to when the bond has just one year left to maturity. If the yield on 1-year bonds is 1.5%, our bond would be worth $1034. We could sell for $1034 today versus waiting a year to get back $1000. And while we’d miss out on the final $50 in interest payments, we could use our $1034 to buy other bonds further out on the yield curve. Also, given that the $34 gain would be treated as a capital gain (at a 15% tax rate for many investors), whereas the $50 bond interest would be treated as ordinary income (25%, 28%, 33%, 39.6% or higher), the after-tax return of selling a year early is almost the same as holding until maturity.

Generally, we advocate a laddered approach to individual bonds, but for the last several years, low interest rates have made it possible to sell bonds a couple of years before maturity to take advantage of roll yield. If your bonds are priced with a yield to maturity of 2% or less, it is definitely worth a look to see if you might benefit from selling rather than holding to maturity. This type of active management takes a bit of work, and frankly, we don’t see a lot of other advisors providing this level of service.

We typically suggest using bond funds for portfolios under $1 million dollars, because it is difficult to achieve a satisfactory level of diversification on smaller portfolios. The managers of your bond fund are likely looking closely at roll yield as well as other reasons to buy or sell bonds, to take advantage of the current interest rate environment. This is one of the reasons that it may be easier for fixed income managers to have a better chance of outperforming their benchmark than equity managers. While 65-80% of equity managers typically underperform their benchmark over five years, according to S&P,  only 41.09% of intermediate investment grade bond funds were beaten by their benchmark from 2010 through 2014.

Equities tend to get all the attention, but many of our clients have 30 to 50 percent of their portfolio in fixed income. It’s important that investors do a good job selecting and managing both their equity and fixed income holdings. If you currently have a portfolio of individual bonds, bring me a statement for a complementary portfolio review. I’ll analyze your portfolio and suggest which bonds to keep and which ones to sell and replace. Or if you’re trying to decide between individual bonds or bond funds, please give me a call.

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Fixed Annuities in Place of Bonds?

Posted On June 15, 2015 By Admin In Portfolio Management /  

Beach Pier

Today’s low interest rate environment is challenging for investors. Cash is paying virtually nothing, and even the 10-year Treasury has a yield of only 2.3% to 2.4%. If you do invest in longer-dated bonds, you have the risk of falling prices if interest rates begin to rise.

Low interest rates have pushed many investors to seek out higher yielding securities. But, there is no free lunch, as higher bond yields come with lower credit quality, heightened risk of default, and increased volatility.

Treasury bonds are a good tool for portfolio construction, because they have a very low correlation to equities. However, if investors replace those very safe (but low yielding) Treasuries with high yield bonds, they are increasing the probability that both their equity and fixed income positions will be down at the same time.

In 2008, for example, as equities tumbled, the iShares High Yield ETF (HYG) was down more than 17% for the year. Although high yield bonds have a place, investors need to understand that junk bonds may not provide much defense when the stock market takes a dive.

Cautious investors have been hiding out in short-term bonds, which might be yielding 1% or less. And while that will limit losses if rates rise, no one knows how long we will be stuck with today’s low rates. If low rates persist for years, short-term bonds aren’t providing much return to help you achieve your investment goals.

As an alternative to taking the risks of chasing yield, or the opportunity cost of hiding in short-term bonds or cash, some investors might want to consider a Fixed Annuity. These come in a variety of formats, but I am only suggesting annuities with a fixed, multi-year guaranteed rate. These are sometimes compared to CDs, but it is very important that investors understand how annuities differ.

Here’s the attraction: we can offer up to 3.25%, principal and interest guaranteed, on a 5-year Fixed Annuity today. And that’s the net figure to investors, which is fairly compelling for a safe yield. It’s more than 1% higher than the SEC yield on a US Aggregate Bond Index fund, like AGG.

Here are five key points to help you understand how annuities work and determine if an annuity is a good choice for you.

  1. Tax-deferral. Annuities are a tax-sheltered account. While you don’t get an upfront tax deduction, an Annuity will grow tax-deferred until you withdraw your money. When withdrawn, gains are taxed as ordinary income, and do not receive capital gains treatment.
  2. Like an IRA, withdrawals from an Annuity prior to age 59 1/2 are considered a pre-mature distribution and subject to a 10% penalty. This is an important consideration: only invest in an Annuity money that you won’t need until after age 59 1/2. This is obviously easier for someone who is in their 50’s or 60’s compared to younger investors.
  3. Limited liquidity. Annuity companies want investors who can commit to the full-term and not need to access their principal. They may impose very high surrender charges on investors who withdraw money before the term is completed.
  4. At the end of the term, investors have several options. You can take your money and walk away. You can leave the money in the annuity at the current interest rate (often a floor of 1%). You can roll the annuity into a new annuity and keep it tax deferred. If the annuity is an IRA already, you can roll it back into your regular IRA brokerage account. Or lastly, you can annuitize the contract, which means you can exchange your principal for a series of monthly payments, guaranteed for a fixed period, or for life. I don’t think very many investors annuitize – most will walk away or reinvest into another annuity.
  5. Annuities are guaranteed by the issuing insurance company, and that guarantee is only as good as the financial strength of the company. Similar to how CDs are insured the by the FDIC, investors in Annuities are protected by your state Guaranty Association (Texas Guaranty Association). Since coverage for annuities in Texas is only up to $250,000, I would never invest more than this amount with any one company.

What I like about the annuity is that it can provide a guaranteed rate of return and price stability, unlike a bond fund. An annuity also can reduce a number of types of portfolio risks, such as interest rate risk, default risk, and will have no correlation to equity returns.

Is an annuity right for you? You should be able to invest the funds for at least 3-7 years and have ample money elsewhere you can access in case of an emergency. You can invest money from an IRA or a regular account, but either way, should not plan on withdrawing money from an annuity until after age 59 1/2. And we’re only using money that would have otherwise been allocated to bonds, CDs, or cash in your investment portfolio. If this describes you, please give me a call at 214-478-3398 and we can discuss Fixed Annuities and their role in your portfolio in greater detail.

 

Please note that as an insurance product, an annuity will pay the issuing agent a commission. Clients are not charged an AUM fee on monies invested in Annuities. We aim to disclose all conflicts of interest and provide transparency on how we are paid.

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Win by Avoiding These Mistakes

Posted On June 8, 2015 By Admin In Behavioral Finance /  

Help

This week, I heard an orchestra conductor say, “It’s not simple to make it sound easy.” While he was talking about music, I was thinking how this applies to investing, too. The more we know about investing and the more experience we have, the more we recognize the benefits of following a very straightforward approach. You don’t have to be a genius to be a successful investor, you just have to avoid making a couple of big mistakes. The game of investing is not won by brilliant moves, but rather by patience and avoiding the common pitfalls that lure investors in year after year.

It’s easy to recognize mistakes in hindsight. The challenge is to anticipate these outcomes in advance, so you can prevent these these errors whenever you are tempted to make changes to your portfolio. Is your decision based on a logical examination of the facts, or an emotional response or ingrained bias? You can be successful over time by following a smart plan, even if it is not complicated. Let the market run its course and know that your plan will work best when you don’t get in the way! Here are three of most costly mistakes I’ve seen investors make in the past 15 years and the solution for you to avoid these each of these missteps. These are real, actual people, but I’ve changed the names here to protect their identity. Learn from their losses!

1) Lack of diversification. 10 years ago, I met Peter who was a client of another financial advisor at my firm. Peter was an engineer at Nortel, and like many employees at tech companies in the 90’s, he received substantial stock options. For years, the stock would double and split every 18 m0nths or so, which meant that anyone who sold their stock options regretted not holding for longer. Peter had more than 12,000 options when Nortel hit $90 a share in the spring of 2000, giving his options a value of over $1 million. At every meeting, they discussed exercising his options, selling his shares and diversifying, but Peter wanted to wait longer. The stock fell to $85, and Peter finally agreed to sell, but said that he had his heart set on a higher price and would sell as soon as it got back over $90 a share.

Unfortunately, the stock never regained the $90 level, and instead lost 90% of its value over the next nine months. His options were now worthless and his hopes of retiring in his 50’s lost forever. Nortel went bankrupt in 2009 and his division was sold to competitor. Peter had the majority of his net worth in company stock and the loss truly decimated his investment portfolio and derailed his retirement plans.

It is often said that diversification is the only free lunch in investing. By being diversified, you can avoid the risk of having one stock wipe out your plans. And I should mention that this also applies to bonds. I met another investor who had $100,000 of Lehman Brothers bonds for their portfolio. As I recall, I believe the investor recovered only about 25 cents on the dollar after the Lehman bankruptcy in 2008.

Solution: Don’t let company stock – or any single stock – comprise more than 10% of your portfolio. Even better, avoid single stocks altogether and use ETFs or mutual funds. For bonds, I’d suggest keeping any single issuer to only 1-2% of your portfolio. The potential benefits of having a concentrated stock position are outweighed by the magnitude of losses if things go wrong.

2) Trying to Outsmart the Market. Luke considered himself a sophisticated investor and enjoyed reading and learning about investing. He had an MBA and felt that with his knowledge and a subscription to the Wall Street Journal, he should be focused on beating the market. He looked at his portfolio almost every day and would be very concerned if any of his funds were lagging the overall market. As a result, he wanted to trade frequently, to put his money into whatever sector, fund, or category was currently performing best.

Funds typically include the disclaimer that “past performance is no guarantee of future results”, and yet, so many investors are focused on picking funds based on their most recent past performance. In Luke’s case, his insistence on “hot funds” meant that he was often invested in sector funds. His performance over time was actually worse than the benchmarks, because in spite of all his research and knowledge, he was focused on looking backwards rather than forwards.

Solution: stay diversified and don’t chase hot funds. Typically, 65% to 80% of all active managers under perform their benchmark over five years, which means that your safest bet is to never bet on a manager’s skill but to bet on the house. Using index funds works, and adopting an index approach means you can focus on what really matters for accumulation: how much you save. Luke’s portfolio was relatively small, under $100,000. Ironically, investors with smaller accounts are often the ones who believe that they need to outsmart the market to be successful. When I worked with a client with over $100 million, he had no qualms about index funds whatsoever.

3) Timing the Market. Angelina retired in 2007, a year before the stock market slumped. In early 2009, the market was down nearly every day, sometimes losing 5% in a session. We had conversations previously with Angelina about market volatility and had implemented a diversified, balanced portfolio. On March 6, 2009, Angelina called and insisted that we exit all her equity positions. It was that very day that the S&P 500 Index put in its intra-day low of 666. In hindsight, she sold on the actual worst day possible. Luckily, we were able to convince her to buy the equities back by June, but by then, she had missed a 30% rally.

Market timing mistakes aren’t limited to selling at a low; you can also miss out when the market is doing well. Last year, while the market was up double digits, some investors had significant capital in cash, fearing a drop or hoping to profit from any temporary pullback. Those with large cash positions under performed those who were invested in a target allocation. Having looked at hundreds of investors’ performance, I have yet to see anyone who has improved their return through market timing, except from random luck. Trying to get in and out of the market gives you more opportunities to make mistakes.

Solution: Choose an appropriate asset allocation and stick with it. Invest monthly into a diversified portfolio, and don’t stop investing when the market is down. If you think you will wait until you get an “all-clear” signal, you’re going to miss out on gains like Angelina. Rebalancing annually creates a discipline to sell your winners and buy the losers, which is difficult to do otherwise!

Investing should be easy. People have the best intentions when they load up on company stock, invest in a hot fund, or try to time the market. The reality, however, is that the more complicated strategy you adopt, the more likely you will hurt rather than enhance your returns. Our goal is to help investors gain the knowledge, confidence, and discipline to recognize that your most likely path to success is to stick with a simple approach that is proven to work.

Want to read more? Check out Winning The Loser’s Game by Charles Ellis.

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Our First Year, in Review

Posted On June 1, 2015 By Admin In Financial Planning /  

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It’s our one-year anniversary at Good Life Wealth Management and we want to thank all of our clients, readers, and friends for your support this year. We’re only getting started with the great things we want to do, so please keep following for future news!

We’re donating 10% of our profits for 2015 to Operation Kindness and there’s nothing we would love more than being able to write them a large check at the end of the year. If you’re looking for a financial advisor, want to make a change in your current approach (or lack thereof), or just want a second opinion, please don’t hesitate to give us a call.

Over the past year, I’ve posted 53 articles to share important financial planning concepts which can help you achieve your goals. Chances are good that if you have a common financial question, I may have written about it already. Here are the articles we’ve posted over the past year; if you see one of interest, please click on the link. Thank you for reading!

 

Introducing Good Life Wealth Management

Three Studies for Smart Investors

6 Steps to Save on Investment Taxes

Who’s Going to Pay for Your Retirement, Freelancer?

Why Alan Didn’t Rollover His 401(k)

8 Questions Grandparents Ask About 529 Plans

How to Maximize Your Social Security

A Young Family’s Guide to Life Insurance

Catching Up For Retirement

Student Loan Strategies: Maximizing Net Worth

Health Savings Accounts

Socially Responsible Investing

Retirement Withdrawal Rates

Machiavelli and Happiness in an Age of Materialism

5 Tax Mistakes New Retirees Must Avoid

The AFM Pension Plan: What Every Musician Needs to Know

5 Techniques for Goal Achievement

The Geography of Retirement

Bringing Financial Planning to All

Community Property and Marriage

Adversity or Opportunity?

Retirement Cash Flow: 3 Mistakes to Avoid

5 Tax Savings Strategies for RMDs

5 Ways to Save Money When Adopting a Pet

How Some Investors Saved 50% More

An Attitude of Gratitude

5 Retirement Strategies for 2015

Are Your Retirement Expectations Realistic?

Year-End Tax Loss Harvesting

What Not to Do With Your 401(k) in 2015

The Dangers Facing Fixed Income in 2015

Are Equities Overvalued?

A Business Owner’s Guide to Social Security

Should You Invest in Real Estate?

How to Become a Millionaire in 10 Years

Indexing Wins Again in 2014

Get Off the Sidelines: 3 Ways to Put Cash to Work

Proposed Federal Budget Takes Aim at Investors

4 Strategies to Reduce the Medicare Surtax

Retiring Soon? How to Handle Market Corrections

Three Things Millennials Can Teach Us About Money

Deferral Rates Trump Fund Performance

How Much Can You Withdraw in Retirement?

Growth Versus Value: An Inflection Point?

Our Investment Process

Which IRA is Right for You?

Rethink Your Car Expenses

Will the IRS Inherit Your IRA?

Fixed Income: Four Ways to Invest

Setting Your Financial Goals

Giving: What’s Your Plan?

Are We Heading For a Bear Market?

Should You Hedge Your Foreign Currency Exposure?

 

Have a question or a topic you’d like to learn more about? Send your questions to scott@goodlifewealth.com.

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Should You Hedge Your Foreign Currency Exposure?

Posted On May 25, 2015 By Admin In Portfolio Management /  

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When you invest in foreign stocks or bonds, you’re really making two transactions. First, you have to exchange your dollars for the foreign currency and only then can you make the purchase of the investment. Over time, your return will consist of two parts: the change in the price of the investment and the change in the value of the currency. In 2014, foreign stocks – as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index – were up 6.4% in their local currency, but because of a strong dollar, the index was actually down by 4.5% in US dollar terms.

This nearly 11% disparity of returns has made for one of the fastest growing investment segments in 2015: currency-hedged Exchange Traded Funds. These new funds invest in a traditional international index, but then hedge the foreign currency, so US investors can receive a similar return to investors in the local currency. Obviously, a currency hedging strategy has worked well over the past year, but is it a good idea going forward?

As you might imagine, there is no free lunch with currency hedging. There are two important caveats for investors to understand. First, when you hedge, you are making a directional bet that the dollar will strengthen. If the dollar weakens instead, a hedged international fund will under perform a non-hedged fund, or even lose money. Hedging adds an additional element to the investment decision making process, which can increase the possibility of under performance. After all, the most appealing time to hedge will be after the currencies have already made a big move, but in many cases, that will also be too late!

Having foreign denominated investments can provide investors with diversification away from the US dollar. If the dollar were to decline, foreign denominated positions would rise. Having that currency diversification could help investors over time by potentially smoothing returns and providing a defensive element. If you hedge your foreign positions, a declining dollar would negatively impact both your domestic and foreign holdings, which means you may have actually increased your portfolio’s correlations and risk.

The second caveat is cost. Currency hedged funds have a higher expense ratio than regular ETFs, and those management costs do not even include the actual cost of purchasing the hedges. If currencies are relatively stable over a longer period, hedged products will likely lag non-hedged funds due to their higher expenses.

Given these two caveats, I have been reluctant to recommend currency hedged ETFs for long-term investors. Today, however, there are some reasons to believe that the US dollar’s strength may continue. If we look at central bank policy, the US Federal Reserve has been discussing when and under what conditions they will begin to raise interest rates. Compare this to Europe or Japan, where the central banks are looking to create new stimulus and quantitative easing programs. The expectation is that the money supply will increase in Europe and Japan, while the US money supply will be more stable. That’s bullish for the dollar for the near term.

We shouldn’t expect 2014’s nearly 11% difference between hedged and un-hedged indices to continue, but currency trends or cycles can last for several years. I will be talking with our investors to discuss hedging a portion of their international exposure, provided they can make those trades in an IRA. We prefer to make the trades in an IRA to avoid any capital gains on a sale today. Also, we consider the currency-hedged funds to be tactical rather than strategic, meaning that at some point in the future, we will probably want to trade back into the traditional, un-hedged index.

There are also currency hedged ETFs for Emerging Market stocks, but we recommend investors steer clear of those funds. The cost of hedging is tied to short-term interest rates in the foreign currency, so it’s very cheap to hedge Euros or Yen today, but fairly expensive to hedge emerging market currencies where interest rates may run 6-8% or more. And that explains why currency hedged Emerging Market funds are not showing the same out performance we see with currency hedged funds in developed markets, even though the dollar has strengthened in both cases.

Have questions on how to implement this in your portfolio? Please don’t hesitate to call me at 214-478-3398 or send me an email to scott@goodlifewealth.com for help!

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Are We Heading For A Bear Market?

Posted On May 18, 2015 By Admin In Behavioral Finance /  

US Downturn

Yes, we are headed for a bear market. But, that’s no cause for alarm, because there is always going to be another bear market. That’s how markets work – we have periods of economic expansion, followed by periods of contraction. I should add that I have no idea when the next bear market will occur, but if you’re wondering if a bear market will occur, then yes, it is 100% inevitable. You’ll be happier and a better investor if you accept this fact, too.

Today’s bull market will eventually run out of steam and we will have a bear market. And that will be followed by another bull market, and so on. The key thing to remember is that the overall long-term trend is up, and that bear markets are simply a brief interruption of a permanently growing global engine.

Since World War II, we’ve had roughly 13 bear markets (a drop of 20% or more), which works out to an average of once every five years. Each one of those bear markets felt like the sky was falling and that markets would never recover, but what has actually occurred is that the S&P 500 Index has expanded 100-fold from 19 in 1946 to 2100 today.

If you are just getting started investing, you might see perhaps 8 bear markets as you accumulate assets for 40 years. And if you are now retiring, you may experience 6 or so bear markets over a 30-year retirement.

It’s easy to agree that you won’t try to time the market when the market is doing great, like it is today. But even the steadiest investor is likely to have their resolve tested if the market goes down 20%. It’s human nature to want to stop the pain of losses and just get out of the market. Unfortunately, the moment of maximum pain will be at the bottom – exactly the worst time to sell your stocks.

With so much fear in the market today, some investors are wondering if we should sell and sit in cash until there is a decline. I can’t advocate this type of strategy. Even if you are successful in getting out of the market, you have to correctly get back into the market. I’ve yet to see any fund or firm be able to do this consistently over several economic cycles. And every study I have seen on individual investors has found that a market timing approach is likely to have worse returns than sticking with a buy and hold strategy.

Some so-called experts have been predicting a bear market for several years, and if you had sold your stocks based on their advice, you would have missed out on significant gains. Even after six years of positive returns, it’s possible that the bull market will continue to march upwards. No one has a crystal ball to predict how the market will perform in the short term. Market timing doesn’t work because it requires knowledge which doesn’t exist.

What we do know is that bear markets are inevitable and what really matters is how you respond to them. That’s why it’s vitally important to have a plan in place for that future storm while the sun is shining today. Here’s our plan and what you need to know about bear markets:

1) Bear markets are a brief interruption of a larger uptrend. If you’re a long-term investor, don’t worry about bear markets.

2) Don’t make a temporary decline into a permanent loss of capital by selling. Know that we plan to stay the course. We will not attempt to time the market. We choose an all-weather allocation which we will maintain in both bull and bear markets based on your needs, goals, and risk tolerance.

3) We rebalance portfolios annually. When the market is up, that means we trim stocks and add to bonds. If the market goes down, we will buy stocks when they are on sale. Remember that we are always highly diversified and avoid both sector funds and single country funds.

4) When you hear “Bear Market”, I want you to think of two words. First, inevitable, and second opportunity. When a TV is marked down by 20 or 30% off last year’s price, you don’t think its a disaster, it’s a chance to buy something you want at a lower price. Take advantage when the market puts stocks on sale.

Have faith in the future. Not a blind naivete, but an understanding of history and an appreciation for the opportunity which bear markets bring to us. The key question is not whether or not we will have a bear market, but if you are prepared and know what to do when we eventually do have one.

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Giving: What’s Your Plan?

Posted On May 11, 2015 By Admin In Financial Planning /  

Dinner Table

Charitable giving is a natural product of financial success. It is truly rewarding to be able to support people and organizations you believe in and help them to become successful and make our community and world a better place. A person is truly rich if they can give to others without fear of running out of money for themselves. And that’s why I am always amazed and inspired by my clients and friends who give generously, who tithe, and who do so with breathtaking confidence. The miser who can’t part with a single dollar may be able to accumulate, but hoarding or living in fear is the opposite of the financial peace we seek. Indeed, subscribing to an abundance mentality means that you can share your blessings with others and fully experience the joy of giving.

You may have questions about how to best achieve your charitable ambitions in conjunction with your other financial goals. If you have you ever asked yourself any of these questions, we have the answers and expertise to help you.

  • How much can we give to charity each year and still meet our goals for retirement and college savings?
  • How much can we give to family or friends without having to file a gift tax return?
  • What is the best way to give money to grandchildren? UTMA, 529 College Savings Plan, Children’s Trust, or other methods? What are the financial aid implications of my gift to a grandchild?
  • What tax benefits would we receive for donating appreciated securities, instead of donating cash, to our favorite charities?
  • Are we candidates for a Donor Advised Fund, a private foundation, or a family trust? How does a Donor Advised Fund work?
  • We’ve had a windfall year (sale of business, inheritance, etc.). How can we maximize our current year tax deductions and allow for future charitable bequests?
  • How can I provide for my spouse, if something should happen to me, and still be sure to leave something for my children or favorite charity. Which are the best accounts to leave to my spouse, children, or charities? And what tax implications will there be for my estate and beneficiaries?

These are all important considerations for a comprehensive financial plan, and while there is no one-size-fits-all answer, there are many tools and techniques which can help you make the most of your giving. Whether you’ve been investing for 5 years or 50 years, we’re here to give you the expert advice on how to achieve your giving goals as part of your overall financial plan.

Because we believe generosity is the pinnacle of financial independence, Good Life Wealth Management will donate a minimum of 10% of its profits annually to charitable organizations. For 2015, our primary recipient will be Operation Kindness, the largest and oldest no-kill animal shelter in North Texas.

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Setting Your Financial Goals

Posted On May 5, 2015 By Admin In Financial Planning /  

EnergyandSerenity4

No achievement occurs by accident. It takes intention, planning, hard work, and perseverance to accomplish a significant task. For this reason, I have always been a big believer in setting goals in writing. For something to be a “goal”, it needs to be concrete and not merely a vague desire. Your chance of achieving a goal is dramatically improved when it is SMART: Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Timely. This simple, perhaps corny, acronym has guided many for decades because it works.

When a goal meets the SMART criteria, you can lay out a blueprint of steps you will take to accomplish your goal. We can break these steps down further into long-term, intermediate, and short-term goals. If your long-term goal is to graduate from college with a certain major, that will require a series of required and elective courses and credit hours you must complete. That is a four-year goal. The intermediate goal might be to pass specific courses this semester. You have to pass Econ 101 before you can take Econ 102. The short-term goal is to do the reading and homework that is assigned for this week. If you don’t do the short-term work, you cannot pass the course this semester, or graduate in four years. Your short-term goals feed into your intermediate goals and into your long-term goals.

This concept is so basic and universal, that it seems almost unnecessary to even need to mention this. Unfortunately, when it comes to finances, many people don’t apply this same thinking and planning process that has enabled them to succeed in other areas of life. They don’t set SMART goals, nor do they work on short-term objectives which will enable them to achieve their long-term goals.

Instead, they hope that the finances will magically take care of themselves. Or that they don’t need to worry about it now, because it will be easier later. Or fatalistically, that the game is rigged and that they shouldn’t even bother trying.

The desire should be to become wealthy. Unfortunately, this statement carries a social stigma for many of us. It’s not something we’d want to say in public, put on our resume, or post as our Facebook status. We are taught to be humble, eschew materialism, and reject greed, as we should. We have heard that the love of money is the root of all evil. We may sub-consciously believe that people who have money have gotten it by exploiting others, cheating, or deceit.

Unfortunately, these beliefs are ultimately self-limiting. They create an excuse for not setting financial goals and keep smart people poor. Chances are that you simply have not looked at finances as an area where you have as much control as other areas of your life. Many people spend more time planning their next vacation than they do planning their financial goals. Granted, a vacation is more fun than organizing your finances, but financial planning has to start with you. No one else can make you do it.

You need to sincerely have the desire to become wealthy. Without that strong drive, you will not be successful. It is like training for a marathon – you don’t just wake up one day and go run a marathon. It takes planning, training, perseverance, and dedication. If you cannot imagine yourself as deserving to be “wealthy”, you may find that another term may be more meaningful for you and resonates with you personally. Consider: financial independence, security, or abundance. As in “my desire is to create a life of abundance for my family”. Let’s avoid framing a goal in negative-terms, what it is not, but you could also say that the goal of financial independence is to eliminate stress and fear of running out of money. Whatever terminology or mantra fits best for you, it is essential that you adopt this desire earnestly.

I view money like water – it is the most abundant resource on the planet, available to us in vast and limitless quantities. The world is literally awash in money. However, it is also true that many of us live in a desert where water is scarce and hard to come by. We can bemoan this fact, but that will not get us any closer to the water. Even worse, we may have decided to live in the desert, but then claim that we have no choice. We think that because there is no water here, that there is no water anywhere, which is false. We may give up, since there is no water here. Or, we may stubbornly keep digging a deeper well, even though our efforts are getting us nowhere.

We have to empower ourselves to recognize that there is no one holding us back from finding water. We should stop blaming ourselves if we do not find water where it isn’t located. But we do have to move on, and accept that we will go to where the water is. Some people seem to be natural at finding water, and once they have that skill, they don’t ever have to fear being thirsty again. They have created a well that provides them abundantly. Even if they lost all the water they have now, they could go out and find more. It is there for the taking.

Many people fail to realize that they are in a desert and think that those who have an abundance of water are smarter, harder-working, lucky, or just born with it. And while that may sometimes be true, I can tell you that many, many people who lead a life of abundance are not better educated or any of these things. They simply have taken a step back and made deliberate choices to be where the water is located. They believe that they do deserve abundance and will take the steps to earn all that they can.

A desire for wealth will not take you very far by itself. For this to become a goal that you can use to take actionable steps, it must be more concrete. A SMART goal gives you the road map and lays out your short-term, intermediate, and long-term goals.

When I started Good Life Wealth Management, a few advisors told me to set high account minimums and only accept clients who had $500,000, $1 million, or more. I understand their business rationale, but previously working at a firm where a $1 million account was considered a nuisance, I missed the thrill of helping investors set goals and chart their own road map.

If you’ve been waiting to get started, afraid to find out how much you should be doing, don’t delay further. Let’s get started on your goals today.

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