Investment Themes for 2022

Posted On December 5, 2021 By Admin In Financial Planning /

Let’s look ahead to 2022 and consider what investment themes we believe should be incorporated into our portfolio models. This process is not meant to be a prediction of whether markets will be up or down. I don’t think anyone can time the market successfully. (Here is my letter to clients from March 21, 2020 for reference.) Rather, my goal is to add value to our investment process in three ways.

One, we want to tilt towards areas of relative value. That means when one category is cheap and another is expensive, we want to have more of the cheap stocks and less of the expensive stocks. This sounds obvious, but many investors chase performance without regard to valuation. Inadvertently, they load up on expensive stocks. Tilting towards cheaper categories is inherently contrarian as we are often buying what has recently lagged.

Two, we aim to identify Satellite categories which are attractive under the current market environment. Unlike our Core positions, Satellite positions are temporary and may be removed in future years. Satellite investments are stocks or bonds in a smaller, more focused niche than our core funds. For example, a Floating Rate Bond fund would be a satellite fund, whereas an Investment Grade Bond Index fund would be a core position. We select satellite funds with the goal of enhancing returns.

Three, to diversify our portfolios better, we include Alternative investments. We are looking for investments outside of the usual stock and bond categories which might offer an acceptable return, but with low correlation to the risks of stock markets or interest rates. This could include Real Estate, Hedge Fund Strategies, Preferred Stocks, Convertible Bonds, Commodities, Managed Futures, etc. Typically, these provide some ballast when stocks have a Bear Market, so their primary purpose is to reduce risk, rather than to increase return.

Stocks in 2022

Today, we are looking at our investment themes for stocks for 2022; next week we will cover bonds and alternative investments. Needless to say, there is a lot of uncertainty about the stock market going into 2022. As investors, we have to come to terms with the fact that markets do not always provide us with a clear and obvious direction. Uncertainty is the normal state.

No one knows what will happen with the virus or with the Federal Reserve trying to slow inflation without hurting the economy. Those are the two big questions facing stock investors at the end of 2021. However, those are known unknowns. Often, markets are surprised more by the unknown unknowns – the risks we aren’t even considering right now.

Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 Index was down 12 years, up 37 years, and exactly at 0% in 2011. The 10-year return of the S&P 500 is 16% a year. Being negative on stocks has proven to be a losing bet over time. Yes, you can lose money on stocks and past performance is no guarantee of future results. With that disclaimer, I see no reason to attempt to try to time the market today and withdraw from stocks.

Tilts: Value, International, Small

Here is what I am doing for 2022: weighing relative valuations between stock categories. There are stocks which have gone way up and are probably overvalued. But there are also stocks which have lagged and are relatively cheap. We can break this down three ways: Growth versus Value stocks, US versus International Stocks, and Large versus Small companies.

Growth has lead the markets for more than a decade. As a result, the spread between value and growth categories has widened to historic levels. In fact, the difference today between Value and Growth is equal to what it was during the Tech bubble in 1999. For 2022, we are increasing our tilt towards Value. While we have little in pure Growth funds, we will be reducing our cap weighted index funds, which have become concentrated in Growth names.

US Stocks have led international for a long-time and there is now a wide gap in valuations. US stocks, especially Growth, are expensive. Most US investors have a significant home bias. For 2022, we will shift a small percentage from US to International. We are already overweight in Emerging Markets, and are not adding to our positions in EM.

Small versus Large has been very interesting in 2021. In the US, Small Value has had a great year and looks promising for 2022. US Small Growth, however, lagged Large Growth by more than 20%. In other developed markets, small cap lagged large cap by a small amount. In Emerging Markets, small cap outperformed large cap by more than 20% year to date. There is not a uniform trend here, except that Small Value has done better than Small Growth. In terms of diversifying and looking for cheap stocks, our small cap selection will lean towards value rather than core or growth.

Taxes Matter

We will be making trades to our portfolios for 2022. Even after these trades, a 60/40 portfolio is still going to have about 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds. But the weightings of the positions will change slightly and some of the funds used may change. Our goal is to reduce risk and stay broadly diversified, while using low-cost investments that are transparent and have a good track record.

Throughout the process, we aim for tax efficiency. Changes are easy to incorporate in IRAs and that is always our first choice. In taxable accounts, we harvested losses in March of 2020, which carried forward to 2021. That can also allow us to make some changes without creating additional taxes for the year. And while I could automate the trading process, I am looking at this one client at a time, to do what is best for you, not easiest for me.

Next week, we will discuss our investment themes for 2022 for bonds and alternatives. Then we will be placing trades at the end of December and into January for most clients. I should note that even without making any changes to the portfolio models, we would still be looking to rebalance here at the end of the year. We will do both steps at the same time – rebalancing and any changes to the model – to avoid any unnecessary trades.

I examine investments all year round, but try to limit changes to once a year to avoid short-term trading. Each year, in the fourth quarter, I go through a process of reviewing all our holdings and our allocations. Here is what I wrote last year, looking ahead to 2021: Investment Themes for 2021

Have concerns about your investment portfolio or specific investments? Will your portfolio be sufficient to achieve your goals? How will you transition your accumulation portfolio to spending it down? These are uniquely individual questions and where our conversations can be the most valuable.

Year End Tax Planning 2021

Posted On November 21, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning /

Let’s discuss some of the key year end tax planning strategies for 2021. It has been a remarkable year with markets soaring, inflation picking up, and the economy booming as we recover from the Pandemic crash last year. A year and a half ago, there were losses everywhere. Now, investors in stocks, real estate, cryptocurrency, and other assets are facing significant gains. Taxes are a major concern.

Here are 10 tax steps to consider before December 31.

Capital Gains Considerations

1. Beware of active mutual funds distributing large capital gains in December. If you have active funds in a taxable account, then make sure you are NOT reinvesting dividends. Better to take that cash and invest in a more efficient ETF or to rebalance.

2. Harvest losses, if you have any for 2021. We harvested losses via tax swaps last year and carried forward tremendous tax benefits into 2021 for our clients. This will help us as we look to rebalance portfolios at year-end.

3. If you are in the 12% tax bracket, your long-term capital gains rate is zero. You can harvest long-term gains and pay no tax. Rather than harvesting losses, you should harvest gains! Then, you can immediately buy back your ETF or fund and reset your cost basis higher. This will help protect you against future taxes. Don’t hold on to gains until future years.

Who is in the 12% bracket? For 2021, this includes single filers with taxable income under $40,525 and married filers under $81,050. Taxable income is after you subtract your standard deduction. So, add back the standard deduction of $12,550 for single or $25,100 married, and you could have gross income of up to $53,075 (single) or $106,150 (married).

4. If you anticipate you will itemize for 2021, bunch deductions as possible before the end of the year.

IRAs and Retirement Contributions

5. If you are able, increase your automatic contributions for 2022. While IRA contributions remain at $6,000 for 2022 ($7,000 if 50+), 401(k) contributions are increased to $20,500 or $27,000 if 50+. Health Savings Accounts are bumped up to $3,600 or $7,200 for a family.

6. Washington wants to eliminate the Backdoor Roth IRA. If you are eligible for 2021, I would do it right away. It may be gone in 2022!

7. Alternatively, if you are in a low tax bracket, consider making Roth Conversions before the end of the year to convert within your low bracket. The key to making this work is making small conversions over many years. Not sure how much to convert? Then let’s talk.

Giving Strategies

8. Even if you do not itemize, you can take an above-the-line deduction for a cash charitable donation of up to $300. For couples, this is doubled to $600. This is only for 2021. In 2022, you will have to itemize to deduct any charitable donation. Above this amount, we suggest donating appreciated securities from a taxable account rather than cash.

9. Consider using your annual gift tax exclusion of $15,000 for personal gifts or for funding a 529 Plan for 2021.

10. If you are 72 or older, don’t forget to complete your Required Minimum Distributions for 2022! Congress waived RMDs for 2020 but they are back this year. If you are over 70 1/2, you can make Qualified Charitable Distributions from your IRA which will count towards your RMD. Be sure to complete any QCDs by December 31.

These are 10 of our top ideas for year end tax planning 2021. I am constantly searching for ways to improve client’s tax situation and add value to their financial planning. I have been getting many new clients this year who are facing large tax bills in the years ahead! Many people aren’t thinking about the eventual taxes as they are building a portfolio or growing a 401(k). And then one day, they realize they have need some help in managing their life in a more tax-wise manner. If that’s you, we can help!

House Hacking

Posted On October 22, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning /

If you are looking to buy a home and want to really grow your wealth, consider house hacking. Our ability to save, invest, and grow real wealth begins with a very simple premise. You have to spend less than you make. It couldn’t be more simple, but that doesn’t make it easy.

For most people, your three biggest expenses are housing, taxes, and cars. If we manage those three expenses well, you may be able to save a significant amount of your income. The more you save, the faster you grow, and the sooner you might reach your goals. Read more: Five Wealth Building Habits

The problem is that most Americans are doing the opposite and creating a lifestyle which consumes 100% of their income. And then there is nothing, zero, left to invest.

House Hacking gives you an incredible opportunity to reduce your biggest expense, in some cases, down to zero. Here’s how. Instead of buying a single family home, you buy a duplex, triplex, or four-plex. You live in one unit and rent out the rest. Your tenants will cover much or even all of your mortgage. You can live there with little or no monthly expenses.

With a house hack, you are freeing up your income so you can save and invest. You can pay off your credit cards. Maximize your 401(k) and Roth IRAs. Start saving for college in a 529. And it’s all because you were willing to live in a multi-family home rather than spending thousands every month on a single family home.

The Details

Sure, house hacking isn’t going to be for everyone. But maybe you want to ask how this might work, if you were to consider it. Although you are buying a multi-family building, you are going to use the house as your primary residence and live there. That means you can still use an FHA mortgage and not have to get a more expensive mortgage for a rental or investment property. With an FHA mortgage, you can put as little as 3.5% down with a FICO score of just 580.

Of course, if you have 20% to put down, you could also do a conventional mortgage as a primary residence. Or, if you’re a veteran, you might be eligible for a VA loan with zero down.

Once you have the property, you can split costs between the area where you live and the area which you rent. This means you can also enjoy some of the tax benefits of being a landlord. Let’s say for example, that your building is 3,000 square feet and you live in 1,200 feet and rent out the rest. You occupy 40% and have 60% as a rental.

Then you can look at your costs, such as insurance, utilities, repairs, taxes, etc. For your bills on the whole house, you can allocate 60% of those costs against your rental income on Schedule E. For the 40% where you live, you can also qualify for the Section 121 capital gains exclusion, when you sell.

Living with other people in the same building might not be your dream situation, but if you can make it work, there could be great benefits for you financially. When you manage your biggest expenses, it becomes easy to have money left over to save and invest. Put your savings on autopilot. Maximize your 401(k). Put $500 month into your Roth IRA to get to the $6,000 annual limit.

Who Can Do a House Hack

House hacking certainly makes sense for a first time home buyer, a single person, or a young couple. That’s probably the typical situation. But it could also work well for older investors who want to turbo charge their savings while they are still working. And if you could reduce your monthly housing cost from $2,000 to $200 or $0 a month, would that change when you will be able to retire? Probably. A house hack might enable you to retire at 55 versus 65. Under the 4% rule, reducing your expenses by $2,000 a month means you now need $600,000 less in your nest egg to retire.

Most of us will resist making a sacrifice to be able to save. Still, if you have an open mind, a house hack might be a brilliant way to save and invest. While your friends and colleagues are barely saving anything, you might be able to put away 50% of your income while your tenants are paying down your mortgage. If you can invest $2,000 a month for 10 years, at a 7% return, you could have $344,000. That might be worth a small sacrifice.

Housing is an expense. Your house should go up in value over time, but the expenses of interest, taxes, insurance, and upkeep are not building your wealth. What if you get someone else to pay for your house? When you reduce those expenses, you are giving yourself a tremendous opportunity to save and invest in appreciating assets. If that is important to you, look for creative ways to cut your biggest expenses!

Have you done a house hack? I’d love to hear from you about your experiences. Send me a note!

Backdoor Roth Going Away?

Posted On October 15, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Tax Strategies /

Under the current proposals in Washington, the Backdoor Roth is going away. If approved, investors would not be allowed to convert any after-tax money in IRAs to a Roth IRA as of January 1, 2022. This would eliminate the Backdoor Roth strategy and also kill the “Mega-Backdoor Roth” used by funding after-tax contributions to a 401(k) plan.

We have been big fans of the Backdoor Roth IRA and have used the strategy for a number of clients. We will discuss what to do if the Backdoor Roth does indeed go away. But first, here’s some background on Roth IRAs.

The Backdoor Roth Strategy

There are two ways to get money into a Roth: through making a contribution or by doing a conversion. Contributions are limited to $6,000 a year, or $7,000 if you are 50 or older. For Roth IRAs, there are also income limits on who can contribute. For 2021, you can make a full Roth contribution if your Modified Adjusted Gross Income is below $125,000 (single) or $198,000 (married).

If your income is above these levels, the Backdoor Roth may be an option. Let’s say you made too much to contribute to a Roth. You could still make an after-tax contribution to a Traditional IRA and then convert it to your Roth. You would owe taxes on any gains. But, if you put in $6,000, after-tax, and immediately converted it, there would be zero gains. And zero taxes. Yeah, it’s a loophole to get around the income restrictions. But the IRS determined that it was legal and people have been doing it for years.

This change won’t happen until January 1. So, you can still complete a Backdoor Roth now through the end of the year. I have some clients who wait until April to do their IRAs, but this year, you had better do the Backdoor by December 31. If you are eligible for the Backdoor, you should do it. Why would you not put $6,000 into an account that will grow Tax-Free for the rest of your life? Couples could do $12,000 or up to $14,000 if they’re over 50.

Instead of the Backdoor Roth…

Your 401(k) Plan may offer a Roth option. Many people are not maximizing their 401(k) contributions. You can contribute $19,500 to your 401(k), or $26,000 if over 50. Let’s say you are currently contributing $12,000 to your 401(k) and $6,000 to a Backdoor Roth. Change that to $12,000 to your Traditional 401(k) and $6,000 to your Roth 401(k). You can split up your $19,500 in contributions however you want between the Traditional and Roth buckets. I often find that with couples that there is room to increase contributions for one or both spouses.

Self-employed? Me, too. I do a Self-Employed 401(k) through TD Ameritrade. Through my plan, I can also make Traditional and Roth Contributions. And I can do Profit-Sharing contributions on top of the $19,500. It’s better than a SEP-IRA, and there is no annual fee. I can set up a Self-Employed 401(k) for you, too.

What if you have both W-2 and Self-Employment Income? In this case, you can maximize your 401(k) at your W-2 job and then contribute to a SEP for your self-employment. Contact me for details.

Health Savings Accounts. HSAs are the only account where you get both an upfront tax-deduction and the money grows tax-free for qualified expenses. And there’s no income limit on an HSA. As long as you are participating in an HSA-compatible high deductible plan, you are eligible. If you are in the plan for all 12 months, you can contribute $3,600 (individual) or $7,200 (family) to an HSA this year.

529 Plans. You want to grow investments tax-free with no income limits and very high contribution limits? Well, that sounds like a 529 College Savings Plan. If your kids, grand-kids, or even great-grand-kids will go to college, you could be growing that money tax-free. They don’t even have to be born yet, you can change the beneficiary later. We can use 529 plans like an inter-generational educational trust that also grows tax-free. And 529s will pass outside of your Estate, if you are also following the current proposals to cut the Estate Tax Exemption from $11.7 million to $5 million.

ETFs in a Taxable Account. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are very tax-efficient. Hold for over a year and you could qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. Today, long-term capital gains taxes are 15%, whereas your traditional IRA or 401(k) money will be taxed as ordinary income when withdrawn, which is 22% to 37% for most of my clients. Some clients will drop to the 12% tax bracket in retirement, which means their long-term capital gains rate will be 0%. A married couple can have taxable income of up to $81,050 and pay zero long-term capital gains! (Taxable income is after deductions. If a couple is taking the standard deduction of $25,100, that means they could have gross income of up to $106,150 and be paying zero capital gains.)

Tax-Deferred Annuity. Instead of holding bonds in a taxable account and paying taxes annually, consider a Fixed Annuity. Today, I saw the rates on 5-year annuities are back to 3%. An annuity will defer the payment of interest until withdrawn. There are no RMDs on Annuities, so you could defer these gains for a long-time, potentially. And if you are in a high tax bracket now, you could hold off on taking your interest until you are in a lower bracket in retirement.

Save on Taxes

If Congress does away with the Backdoor Roth, we will let you know. There are a lot of moving parts in this 2,400 page bill and some will change. Whatever happens, my job will remain to help investors achieve their goals. We invest for growth, but we know that it is the after-tax returns that matter most. So, my job remains to help you find the most efficient and effective methods to keep more of your investment return.

Matching Grant Program 2021

Posted On September 21, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Charitable Giving /

We donate 10% of our pre-tax profit to Charity each year. Besides donating to non-profits of my choosing, I will match client donations up to $200 to a charity you support. It could be an Arts organization, university, museum, church, social welfare organization, animal shelter, or any other 501(c)3 organization!

To participate in our Matching Grant Program, please email me the name of your charity and the amount you donated in 2021. We are accepting requests now through October 31 and will pay out all donations by December 31. Matching grants will be approved until funds run out and we limit grants to $200 per client household.

I really look forward to our Matching Grant Program every year. I am so proud to see all the ways my clients do good for their communities. This is also a small way for me to say a heartfelt thank you for allowing me the honor of being your financial advisor. I love what I do and it’s only possible because of the trust which you have placed in me.

To me, The Good Life means having an abundance mentality, showing gratitude for our blessings, and giving back to make the world a better place. I am happy to support the causes that are dear to you. Thank you!

Stretch IRA Rules

Posted On September 17, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Estate Planning, Retirement Planning /

What are the Stretch IRA Rules? The SECURE Act changed the Stretch IRA rules as of January 1, 2020. While this was a proposal, I wrote 7 Strategies If The Stretch IRA Is Eliminated, which continues to get read numerous times every month. Today, we are going to dive into the new rules for IRA Beneficiaries. This is important because if you are leaving a large retirement account to your heirs, there could be a large tax bill! And if you don’t know these rules, you could make it even worse.

First, old Stretch IRAs are unchanged and are grandfathered under the old rules. So, for anyone who passed away by December 31, 2019, their beneficiaries could still inherit the account into a Stretch IRA. That means that they only have to take Required Minimum Distributions each year. They can leave the money invested in a tax-deferred account. For many of my clients with inherited IRAs, their Stretch IRAs have grown even though they are taking annual withdrawals!

Under the new rules, there are three classes of IRA Beneficiaries. First, there are Eligible Designated Beneficiaries (EDBs) who will still be able to use the Stretch IRA Rules. Second, there are non-Eligible Designated Beneficiaries (non-EDBs), who are now going to have to withdraw all the money within 10 years. This is called the “10 Year Rule”. Third, there could be a Non-Designated Beneficiary.

Eligible Designated Beneficiaries

There are six situations where an IRA Beneficiary today could use the old Stretch IRA rules.

A Spouse
Minor Children (see below)
Disabled Persons
Chronically Ill Individuals
Persons Not more than 10 years younger than the IRA owner
Certain See-Through Trusts

These individuals could inherit an IRA and use the old Stretch IRA rules. For example, if you left money to your sister who is 8 years younger than you, she could do a Stretch. Or to a friend who was disabled. The old rules and benefits will still apply in these cases!

Spouses and Children

Minor Children are not given an unlimited Stretch IRA, unlike in the past. Today, Minor Children can stretch the IRA until the age of majority, 18 or 21, depending on the state. If they are a full-time college student they can stretch until age 26. When they reach that age, then the 10 Year Rule kicks in and they must withdraw the remainder of the IRA within 10 years.

Spousal beneficiaries have a choice in how they treat the inherited IRA. They can roll it into their own IRA and treat it as their own. This is helpful if they are younger than the decedent and want to have smaller RMDs. However, if they are younger than 59 1/2, they might prefer to put it into a Stretch IRA. That way they can take withdrawals now and avoid the 10% pre-mature distribution penalty. If a surviving spouse is older than the decedent, they could use the Stretch IRA so they can put off RMDs until the decedent would have been 72.

Non-Eligible Designated Beneficiaries

Any person who is not one of the six EDBs is a non-Eligible Designated Beneficiary. Non-EDBs are must withdraw their entire IRA within 10 years. This would include adult children, grandchildren, or any other relative or friend who is more than 10 years younger than the IRA owner. Most non-spouse beneficiaries will be non-EDBs.

The IRS created some confusion this year as to what the 10 Year Rule Means. One document suggested that beneficiaries would still be required to take out some of the inherited IRA annually. That turns out not to be the case, as the IRS clarified in publication 590-B, Distributions from IRAs. Under the 10 year rule, there is no RMD or annual requirement. Beneficiaries have complete choice in when they withdraw from the IRA. The only requirement is that the whole account is withdrawn in 10 years.

For most beneficiaries, you will still want to draw down a large account gradually. Taking small withdrawals each year is likely to result in lower taxes than if you wait until the 10th year. For example, it would be better to take $100,000 a year for 10 years than $1 million all at once. This does give us some room for customization. If you have a low earning year, that could be a better year to take out a larger amount. If your tax rate will go up in 2022 or 2026, you might want to accelerate withdrawals while under a lower rate.

Non-Designated Beneficiaries

The third category is Non-Designated Beneficiaries. An NDB could occur if you don’t name a beneficiary, if you name your Estate as the beneficiary, or a charity or certain trusts. NDBs have the worst outcome, the old 5-year Rule. NDBs must withdraw the entire IRA within 5 years. Many people who established Trusts prior to 2020 named their trusts as the beneficiary of their retirement accounts. This will backfire now because the Trust cannot Stretch the distributions. And with Trust tax rates higher than for individual beneficiaries, this could hurt your beneficiaries quite a bit. If you have a Trust from before 2020, it should be revisited.

It is important that we review your beneficiaries from time to time to make sure they are up to date. It is also a good idea to have contingent beneficiaries in case your primary beneficiary pre-deceases you. IRAs do not have to go through probate. But if there are no beneficiaries, then this money could be tied up from months to more than a year as the Probate Court decides how to distribute your money.

Roth IRA Stretch Rules

Roth IRAs are inherited tax-free. So, on day one, any beneficiary can withdraw the entire Roth IRA balance and owe zero taxes. However, there are some options available for Roth Beneficiaries, too. And these also changed under the SECURE Act.

First, for spouses. A spousal beneficiary of a Roth IRA could take a lump sum distribution. Or they could roll the inherited Roth into their own Roth. Third, they could roll the Roth into an Inherited Roth account. In an Inherited Roth, they have two options for distributions. They can take annual Required Minimum Distributions based on their own age. Or, they can use the 5-year rule and withdraw the entire amount in 5 years. For most spouses, rolling the inherited Roth into their own will be a good course of action.

Non spouse beneficiaries also have an option to continue tax-free growth of a Roth. For Roth owners who passed away before 2020, beneficiaries could have elected to take RMDs. Under the new rules (owners who passed away after January 1, 2020), Roth Beneficiaries can use the 10 year rule. They have up to 10 years to take money out of their inherited Roth IRA.

Other Considerations

An inherited IRA also has a beneficiary. What happens then? Let say Mom left her IRA to her son years ago. Son has a Stretch IRA. Son passes away and leaves the inherited IRA to his wife. What now? You don’t get to Stretch twice. So the wife, in this case, is going to be under the 10-Year Rule. This is called a Successor Beneficiary.

A second example: Mom passes away in 2020 and leaves her IRA to her son. Son is under the 10-Year Rule. Son passes away in 2025 and names his wife as Successor Beneficiary. Does she get to restart the 10-Year Rule? No, the old rule applies, and she must withdraw the full account by 2030.

If you have a Beneficiary IRA, and are over age 70 1/2, you can also do Qualified Charitable Distributions. Most people don’t realize that QCDs could count towards their RMDs from an inherited IRA, too.

While I often only have one or two clients who inherit an IRA each year, every IRA owner should understand what will happen when they pass away. That’s why I am writing this somewhat technical article on the new Stretch IRA rules. By planning ahead, we can determine the best course of action for your situation. It could involve leaving a your IRA to charity, to a spouse, to children, grandchildren, or a trust. It may make sense to convert your IRA to a Roth.

For many of my clients, their largest accounts are IRAs. And there is a significant tax liability attached to those IRAs, for the owners, spouses, and heirs. If we plan well, we can help reduce those taxes!

Inflation Investments

Posted On September 10, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning, Portfolio Management /

With the cost of living on the rise in 2021, many investors are asking about inflation investments. What is a good way to position your portfolio to grow and maintain its purchasing power? Where should we be positioned for 2022 if higher inflation is going to stick around?

Inflation was 5.4% for the 12 months ending in July. I share these concerns and we are going to discuss several inflation investments below. Before we do, I have to begin with a caveat. We should be cautious about placing a lot of weight in forecasts. Whether we look at predictions of stock market returns, interest rates, or inflation, these are often quite inaccurate. Market timing decisions based on these forecasts seldom add any value in hindsight.

What we do know for sure is that cash will lose its purchasing power. With interest rates near zero on most money market funds and bank accounts, it is a frustrating time to be a conservative investor. We like to consider the Real Yield – the yield minus inflation. It would be good if bonds were giving us a positive Real Yield. Today, however, the Real Yield on a 10-year Treasury bond is negative 4%. This may be the most unattractive Real Yield we have ever seen in US fixed income.

Let’s look at inflation’s impact on stocks and bonds and then discuss three alternatives: TIPs, Commodities, and Real Estate.

Inflation and Stocks

You may hear that inflation is bad for stocks. That is partially true. Rising inflation hurts companies’ profitability and consumers’ wallets. In the short-term, unexpected spikes in inflation seem correlated to below average performance in stocks.

However, when we look longer, stocks have done the better job of staying ahead of inflation than other assets. Over five or ten years, stocks have generally outpaced inflation by a wide margin. That’s true even in periods of higher inflation. There are always some down periods for stocks, but as an asset class, stocks typically have the best chance of beating inflation over a 20-30 year horizon as an investor or as a retiree.

We can’t discuss stocks and inflation without considering two important points.

First, if there is high inflation in the US, we expect that the Dollar will decline in value as a currency. If the Dollar weakens, this would be positive for foreign stocks or emerging market stocks. Because foreign stocks trade in other currencies, a falling dollar would boost their values for US investors. Our international holdings provide a hedge against a falling dollar.

Second, the Federal Reserve may act soon to slow inflation by raising interest rates. This would help slow the economy. However, if the Fed presses too hard on the brake pedal, they could crash the economy, the stock market, and send bond prices falling, too. In this scenario, cash at 0% could still outperform stocks and bonds for a year or longer! That’s why Wall Street has long said “Don’t fight the Fed.” The Fed’s mandate is to manage inflation and they are now having to figure out how to keep the economy growing. But not growing too much to cause inflation! This will prove more difficult as government spending and debt grows to walk this tightrope.

Inflation and Bonds

With Real Yields negative today, it may seem an unappealing time to own bonds, especially high quality bonds. Earning one percent while inflation is 5% is frustrating. The challenge is to maintain an appropriate risk tolerance across the whole portfolio.

If you have a 60/40 portfolio with 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, should you sell your bonds? The stock market is at an all-time high right now and US growth stocks could be overvalued. So it is not a great buying opportunity to replace all your bonds with stocks today. Instead, consider your reason for owning bonds. We own bonds to offset the risk of stocks. This gives us an opportunity to have some stability and survive the next bear market. Bonds give us a chance to rebalance. So, I doubt that anyone who is 60/40 or 70/30 will want to go to 100% stocks in this environment today.

Still, I think we can add some value to fixed income holdings. Here are a couple of ways we have been addressing fixed income holdings for our clients:

Ladder 5-year Fixed Annuities. Today’s rate is 2.75%, which is below inflation, but more than double what we can find in Treasury bonds, Municipal bonds, or CDs.
Emerging Market Bonds. As a long-term investment, we see attractive relative yields and improving fundamentals.
Preferred Stocks, offering an attractive yield.

TIPS

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities are US government bonds which adjust to the CPI. These should be the perfect inflation investment. TIPS were designed to offer a return of inflation plus some small amount. In the past, these may have offered CPI plus say one percent. Then if CPI is 5.4%, you would earn 6.4% for the year.

Unfortunately, in today’s low yield environment, TIPS sell at a negative yield. For example, the yield on the Vanguard short-term TIPS ETF (VTIP) is presently negative 2.24%. That means you will earn inflation minus 2.24%. Today, TIPS are guaranteed to not keep up with inflation! I suppose if you think inflation is staying higher than 5%, TIPS could still be attractive relative to owning regular short-term Treasury Bonds. But TIPS today will not actually keep up with inflation.

Instead of TIPS, individual investors should look at I-Bonds. I-Bonds are a cousin of the old-school EE US Savings Bonds. The I-series savings bonds, however, are inflation linked. I-bonds bought today will pay CPI plus 0%. Then your investment is guaranteed to keep up with inflation, unlike TIPS. A couple of things to know about I-bonds:

You can only buy I-bonds directly from the US Treasury. We cannot hold I-Bonds in a brokerage account. There is no secondary market for I-bonds, you can only redeem at a bank or electronically.
I-Bond purchases are limited to a maximum of $10,000 a year in electronic form and $5,000 a year as paper bonds, per person. You can buy I-bonds as a gift for minors, and the annual limits are based on the recipient, not the purchaser.
I-bonds pay interest for 30 years. You can redeem an I-bond after 12 months. If you sell between 1 and 5 years, you lose the last three months of interest.

Commodities

Because inflation means that the cost of materials is rising, owning commodities as part of a portfolio may offer a hedge on inflation. Long-term, commodities have not performed as well as stocks, but they do have periods when they do well. While bonds are relatively stable and consistent, commodities can have a lot of volatility and risk. So, I don’t like commodities as a permanent holding in a portfolio.

The Bloomberg Commodities Index was up 22% this year through August 31. Having already had a strong performance, I don’t think that anyone buying commodities today is early to the party. That is a risk – even if we are correct about above average inflation, that does not mean we are guaranteed success by buying commodities.

Consider Gold. Gold is often thought of as a great inflation hedge and a store of value. Unfortunately, Gold has not performed well in 2021. Gold is down 4.7% year to date, even as inflation has spiked. It has underperformed broad commodities by 27%! It’s difficult to try to pick individual commodities with consistent accuracy. They are highly speculative. That’s why if you are going to invest in commodities, I would suggest a broad index fund rather than betting on a single commodity.

Real Estate

With home prices up 20% in many markets, Real Estate is certainly a popular inflation investment. And with mortgage rates at all-time lows, borrowers tend to do well when inflation ticks up. Home values grow and could even outstrip the interest rate on your mortgage, potentially. I’ve written at length about real estate and want to share a couple of my best pieces:

While I like real estate as an inflation hedge, I’d like to remind investors that the home price changes reported by the Case-Schiller Home Price Index do not reflect the return to investors. Read: Inflation and Real Estate.

Thinking about buying a rental property? Read: Should You Invest In Real Estate?

With cash at zero percent, should you pay off your mortgage? Read: Your Home Is Like A Bond

Looking at commercial Real Estate Investment Trusts, US REITs have had a strong year. The iShares US REIT ETF (IYR) is up 27% year to date, beating even the S&P 500 Index. I am concerned about the present valuations and low yields in the space. Additionally, retail, office, apartments, and senior living all face extreme challenges from the Pandemic. Many are seeing vacancies, bankrupt tenants, and people relocating away from urban development. Many businesses are rethinking their office needs as work-from-home seems here to stay. Even if we do see higher inflation moving forward, I’m not sure I want to chase REITs at these elevated levels.

Inflation Portfolio

Even with the possibility of higher inflation, I would caution investors against making radical changes to their portfolio. Stocks will continue to be the inflation investment that should offer the best chance at crushing inflation over the long-term. Include foreign stocks to add a hedge because US inflation suggests the Dollar will fall over time. Bonds are primarily to offset the risk of stocks and provide portfolio defense. We will make a few tweaks to try to reduce the impact of inflation on fixed income, but I would remind investors to avoid chasing high yield.

As satellite positions to core stock and bond holdings, we’ve looked at TIPS, Commodities, and Real Estate. Each has Pros and Cons as inflation investments. At this point, the simple fear of inflation has caused some of these investments to already have significant moves. We will continue to evaluate the inflation situation and analyze how we position our investment holdings. Our focus remains fixed on helping clients achieve their goals through prudent investment strategies and smart financial planning.

Preferred Stock Dividends

Posted On September 2, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Portfolio Management /

As part of our Core and Satellite portfolio models, our investors have received Preferred Stock Dividends for several years. Preferred Stocks are different from Common Stock as they are a hybrid security which combines the features of a stock and a bond. Like a stock, preferreds trade on an exchange and pay a quarterly dividend. Like a bond, preferreds are issued at a Par Value ($25) and can be called or redeemed by the issuer in the future for $25.

If you’d like a primer on Preferred Stocks, check out my previous article, Preferred Stocks Belong In Your Portfolio. Or check out Forbes, What is Preferred Stock?

The Role of Preferreds

The preferreds we own have yields from 4-6% or more. Today, with the yield on 10-year Treasury Bonds around 1.25%, preferred stock dividends offer a nice rate of return compared to bonds but without all of the volatility of common stocks. And with the current high valuations on US Stocks, Preferred Stocks offer us an alternative that complements our stock and bond holdings. It’s a nice way to diversify our holdings, but preferreds remain a small, niche investment that most people have never owned.

Presently, our Premiere Wealth Portfolios have between 7-11.5% in Preferred Stocks. In our Defensive Managers Select portfolio, we have a 20% position in Preferred Stocks. Those are significant weights for a satellite position, but it remains a small piece of our overall allocation.

We buy a basket of individual Preferred Stocks. For each client, we will own a minimum of 5 and as many as 15 individual Preferred Stocks. As of today, our largest holdings include Capital One, Wells Fargo, Regions Financial, JP Morgan, and Brookfield Finance. Most preferreds are issues by financial companies, although there are some issued by real estate and utilities, too.

I prefer to own individual preferreds to have better control over the portfolio and keep costs down. Generally, I like to buy Exchange Traded Funds. And there is an ETF for preferreds: PFF from iShares. Two problems. First, the ETF owns many preferreds trading at a very large premium to Par. That means you would be buying a preferred at $27 that could be redeemed at $25 within 5 years. We have to look at the Yield to Call to understand this. Second, the ETF has an expense ratio of almost half a percent (0.46%), and that would reduce investors’ return. In a sector where the expected return is only 4-5%, that expense ratio would be a big drag on returns.

Managing Preferreds

Within our baskets of preferreds, we’ve had quite a few trades this summer. Generally, for most of my clients, we own preferreds in IRAs, since they create taxable income. In an IRA, we can trade without any capital gains impact. With yields falling this year, there has been a high demand for Preferred Stock Dividends. And this has pushed up the price of many Preferred Stocks. This is not a good time to just blindly buy any Preferred Stocks – many are very expensive.

So, we have been rotating from preferreds with higher prices to those with lower prices. In some cases, a Preferred with a high dividend payment actually has a low Yield to Call. If you are paying $27 for a preferred that is callable for $25, you are paying an 8% premium. And that premium will decline to the call date, creating a loss of capital that will eat into your total return. I am finding opportunities to improve our preferred stock dividends with some careful trades.

Trading and Upgrading

There are a couple of scenarios where we have placed trades to replace one preferred with another.

Price comparison. Here are two preferreds with the same coupon of 4.45% and similar credit ratings and call dates. The Schwab (series J) is trading at $26.57, while Regions Financial (series E) is at $25.60. This is an opportunity to sell an expensive share and use the proceeds to buy more shares of the lower priced preferred.
Same company, different series. Capital One’s series L has a coupon of 4.375% and the series N is at 4.25%. Both have the same call date of September 2026. There is a one-eighth of a percent difference in coupon. So, when the L’s were trading for 2.5% more than the N’s, that is too big of a difference. We sold the L’s and bought the N’s. Then this week, the prices swapped and we were able to sell the N’s and buy back the higher yield L’s for less. Many companies have multiple series of preferred stocks. Sometimes one is more expensive and the other is less expensive, for no logical reason. We’ve also swapped between the Goldman Sachs series C and D, which both have a 4% coupon.
New issues. We can buy IPOs of Preferred Stocks. We’ve bought a new JP Morgan preferred at $25 this summer and it is now up to $25.56. Other times, we have been able to buy preferreds for below $25 for a few days after the IPO, when the issue was undersubscribed. We’ve bought shares of Regions Financial and Texas Capital Bancshares at a discount this way. Over a few weeks, new issues usually move to where similar preferreds are priced.

Long-Term Outlook

I’ve been looking at all types of income securities for the last 17 years. Not just Preferred Stocks, but Closed End Funds, MLPs, REITs, and individual corporate and municipal bonds. It’s a lot of time to manage individual securities correctly, and it takes skill and knowledge that takes years to develop.

I like the idea of Preferred Stock Dividends to add income to our portfolio models. And that’s the purpose behind our Alternatives sleeve to the portfolio: to seek investments with a better return than bonds, and lower correlation and volatility compared to stocks.

For now it’s working as I had hoped. What might change this? If we see the Federal Reserve start to raise interest rates and see the long-end of the yield curve move up, this would be negative for preferreds. That’s why this is a Satellite holding and not a Core. There may well come a day that we liquidate the preferreds for another asset class with better prospects. Even though we are buy and hold, long-term investors, by no means is the approach a purely passive portfolio. Rather than looking in the rear view mirror, we construct portfolios looking forward at the challenges we see facing markets today.

Have a question about Preferred Stock Dividends? Curious about your Retirement Income? Let’s talk about our portfolios and how they might work for you. Click Contact on the top of this page to get in touch!

Charitable Giving in 2021

Posted On May 26, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning, Tax Strategies /

For anyone who is looking at their charitable giving in 2021, there are some important things to know. In 2020 as the Coronavirus started, the government recognized the terrible impact the pandemic would have on charities. As a result, the CARES Act included several new tax benefits to encourage charitable giving in 2020.

If you made a cash donation in 2020, you could deduct $300 from your tax return. This was “above the line”, which means you did not have to itemize your deductions to take this $300 deduction. (If your itemized deductions exceed your standard deduction, you could deduct more than the $300.)
Normally, your cash donations are limited to 60% of your Adjusted Gross Income. The CARES Act increased this to 100% for 2020. (Excess donations could be carried forward for 5 years.) This means that if your income was $400,000, you could donate $400,000 and reduce your AGI to zero.

CARES Act Provisions Extended

Both of those benefits were only for 2020. But as Milton Friedman said, “there is nothing as permanent as a temporary government program.” So, the government has extended these two benefits under the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2021.

For 2021, you can still deduct $300 for cash donations as an above the line deduction. Unlike 2020, this is per spouse, so a married couple filing jointly can deduct $600 in 2021. And the 100% of AGI limit is also extended through December 31, 2021. Note that these apply only to “cash” donations and not to donations of stocks or goods. The limit for donating stocks remains 30% of AGI.

I do have to question whether you really would want to deduct 100% of AGI and take your taxable income to zero for one year. Let’s say you have $400,000 in annual taxable income, want to donate $400,000, and are married. Consider these two simplified scenarios. I’m using the 2021 tax rates for both years (we don’t know yet the exact income levels for 2022.)

You donate $400,000 in year one. Your taxes are zero. The next year, your income is back to $400,000. In year 2, you would owe $84,042 in Federal Income Taxes.
You donate $200,000 in years one and two. In both years, your remaining taxable income is $200,000. You would owe $36,042 in each year, for a total of $72,084 over two years. So, you actually would save $12,000 in taxes by spreading out your donations over two years, rather than doing 100% in one year. That’s because with a graduated tax system, taking your taxes to zero isn’t necessary. You pay only 12% on taxes up to $81,050.

Charitable Strategies for 2021

If you do want to make a large donation, consider pairing it with a Roth Conversion. The donation could take your AGI to zero, and then you can choose how much of your IRA/401(k) you want to convert and pay those taxes today. Then, your Roth is growing tax-free.
For many individuals or couples, the $300/$600 donation fully covers their charitable giving in 2021. Make sure you keep your receipts and donation letters! Most donors do not have enough deductions to itemize.
You can still donate your appreciated securities and save on capital gains tax. Do this if your donations will remain under the 30% of AGI threshold. Even if you are only taking the standard deduction, at least you will avoid capital gains. If you itemize and exceed the 30% threshold, you can carry forward your donations for five years.
Pack your donations into one year and establish a Donor Advised Fund (DAF). You get the upfront tax deduction and can then distribute money to charities in the years ahead. This is a good strategy if you are having a year with very high income, such as from selling a business or large asset.
If, on the other hand, you anticipate that your tax rate will be going up, spread out your donations or hold off to future years. This could be due to your income going up, tax increases from Washington on the wealthy, or the sunset of current tax rates after 2025.
If you are over age 70 1/2, you can give from your IRA tax-free. If you are 72, this counts towards your RMD. While the CARES Act eliminated RMDs for 2020, they are back for 2021. You can make a Qualified Charitable Donation (QCD) of up to $100,000 a year from your IRA.

Tax Smart Giving

No one gives to charity just for the tax benefits. We have causes and organizations we want to support. Giving back is a way of showing gratitude for our success, helping others, and being a positive contributor to making the world a better place. When we have an Abundance mindset, giving with purpose is a joy. Still, if we can be smart about our charitable giving in 2021, there can be significant tax savings. That could mean not only lower taxes for you, but ultimately, more money can go to charities in the years ahead.

Since our founding in 2014, Good Life Wealth Management has donated 10% of profits to charity each year. Additionally, we offer a Matching Gift Program to our clients each fall, in which we match $200 of donations to their favorite charity.

When Can You Splurge?

Posted On May 2, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Behavioral Finance /

We all have things we enjoy, and the question of when can you splurge has unique financial planning considerations. We probably think about these choices, consciously or subconsciously, every day. And while I don’t think there can be a hard and fast rule, there are some things to consider. Once we start peeling back the proverbial onion, there are many psychological layers to this question. We all have a relationship with money. It is based on our experiences, upbringing, and innate preferences. The question isn’t just When can you splurge? It is How can you have a better, more effective relationship with your money?

“Money makes a terrible master but an excellent servant”
P.T. Barnum

First, let’s define what we mean by splurge. Clearly, your normal living expenses should not count as a splurge. But, even this is problematic. There are many Americans who have adopted a lifestyle which they cannot afford. Their choice of housing, cars, vacations, clothes, etc. consumes all of their income. And then when an emergency does occur, it has to go on the credit card. They end up in debt and there is no way to pay off those debts with their current consumption. They don’t see that they are splurging already, and spending in an out of control manner. Read more: Machiavelli and Happiness in an Age of Materialism.

A definition of splurge as “to spend money freely or extravagantly, especially on something special as a way to make yourself feel good.” Most definitions imply wastefulness and vanity. But I also think that occasionally being able to spend money on things which you enjoy is a great freedom. We all may have interests which make no sense to others. Perhaps it is cars, or watches, or shoes, or a boat. To us, it is the realization of a dream. To someone else, it would be a waste of money. That’s okay. The blue car pictured above is my splurge from this March. Maybe that doesn’t do anything for you. For me, a lightweight sports car with a manual transmission is a joy.

When Not to Splurge

Let’s begin by laying down a few prerequisites for a splurge. Perhaps it is easiest to think of these as a checklist:

Can you pay in Cash? Or would this splurge be funded by credit card debt? If you don’t have the cash to purchase an item, maybe you should hold off until you can afford it.
Do you have an emergency fund with at least 3-6 months of living expenses?
Are you funding accounts for your long-term goals? For example, a 401(k) or IRA for retirement, a savings account for a house down payment, or a 529 plan for your kid’s college.

If you can pass these three prerequisites, then the splurge is not going to hurt you. After all, we don’t want to look back on our splurges with regret and be angry that we made a mistake. Number one, credit cards, also suggests that if you presently have a lot of credit card debt, you should not splurge. You should prioritize paying off your cards, first. How much should you save for number three? If you are in your 20’s and are currently saving at least 12% towards your 401(k), I think you are off to a good start. If you got a late start, you may need to save more than 12% to be prepared for retirement. Read more: What percentage should you save?

Start with a Plan

My purpose as a Financial Planner is to help you be smart with your money. Our ultimate goal is to make sure you achieve your financial goals. With that in mind, we are always looking to design long-term diversified investment strategies built within a planning process. We are always looking for the most cost-efficient, high-value ways to manage your money.

The beauty of the plan is that it creates awareness and a process for change. For some individuals, that may mean establishing automatic savings programs to fulfill your needs for retirement, debt management, house goals, college savings, etc. We can break down each goal into a monthly target and set it on auto-pilot. Read more: Do You Hate Saving Money?

For others, a plan can show them that they are on track. Because many people are afraid to splurge. And I am writing for them, too. Yes, there are people who need to splurge less. But there are also people who need to splurge more.

If your relationship to money is centered on fear, anxiety, and regret, you are carrying a terrible amount of stress with you at all times. This is a scarcity mentality, which is psychologically harmful. It impacts your behavior and hurts your satisfaction. In one study, adults who had a positive attitude about aging lived 7.5 years longer than those with a negative mindset. Your thoughts matter! Read more: 5 Ways to Go From A Scarcity to Abundance Mindset.

Your plan will let you know how much you can splurge and give you the confidence that you aren’t doing anything to hurt your future self. Maturity is often defined as the ability to delay gratification. We all need to save for the future. Still, splurging doesn’t require that we have already accomplished all our goals! Only that we are presently taking the steps necessary to get us there. If you want to feel more confident about your splurge, start with your financial plan. Otherwise, how do you know?

But Should You Splurge?

Still not sure if a splurge is a good idea? Afraid you will regret a big purchase? A few last thoughts.

Avoid impulse buys. Shopping as therapy for stress, boredom, or other problems is only a band-aid. Find a better solution. Talk to a friend, go for a walk, do something that makes you feel better and actually addresses the emotional need.
Could this be easily reversed? Some items hold their value. If you buy an item for $3,000 and could resell it in a couple of years for $3,000, it’s a fairly low risk proposition. And if it brings you joy, then why not.
Have you shopped around and done your research? Can you buy used or find an alternative? A splurge doesn’t have to be reckless; see if you can find a great deal.
Do you have a bucket list of experiences that you’d like to do and and see? A splurge can also be a trip or event, and it is healthy to spend on creating memories and not simply buying more things. We only get so many trips around the sun. Our time here will go quickly and it is finite. 10 years from now, you may still smile when you think about that epic vacation to Machu Picchu. You probably aren’t going to be thinking about what it cost because in the long run, it didn’t matter.
An itch needs to be scratched. Sometimes, an idea takes hold and we simply need to do something. If it doesn’t go away, maybe we will be richer as a person for having allowed ourselves to live a little more freely. What is the worst that will happen if you do this one splurge?

Intention, Choice, and Balance

Money is a great tool to lead a satisfying and interesting life. We all know that more things can’t bring you happiness. And we all know someone who spends too much and rationalizes it as “self-care”. How can you find a balance? At the one extreme, many Americans are not saving anything and are two paychecks away from being broke. At the other extreme, there are hoarders who are paralyzed with fear of spending and losing their money. I’m a frugal person, but this can be taken too far.

Choose what is truly important to your life. Don’t let others decide for you what is a good use of your money. But be smart. Start with a plan and cover your bases. When you have your savings plan established, be intentional with your spending so your choices align with your goals. By that I mean, don’t just spend blindly, splurge in ways that are meaningful to you. Maybe bonding on a family vacation is more important than upgrading your car this year. Maybe keeping your housing costs reasonable will allow you to spend on other priorities. The balance is deciding where to splurge and where to not spend your money. The right balance is to splurge neither too much, nor too little. Never splurge to keep up with the Joneses.

When can you splurge? I’m not going to show you the compound interest on a daily cup of Starbucks. I’m not interested in slapping people on the wrist to make them feel bad about how they spend their money. I believe you can align the head and the heart on your spending. When you have invested time and energy into your financial plan, you will have earned the confidence to know when you can splurge. Then, giving yourself permission to splurge will not be from weakness, but to help you live the life you truly want.