Preferred Stock Dividends

Posted On September 2, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Portfolio Management /

As part of our Core and Satellite portfolio models, our investors have received Preferred Stock Dividends for several years. Preferred Stocks are different from Common Stock as they are a hybrid security which combines the features of a stock and a bond. Like a stock, preferreds trade on an exchange and pay a quarterly dividend. Like a bond, preferreds are issued at a Par Value ($25) and can be called or redeemed by the issuer in the future for $25.

If you’d like a primer on Preferred Stocks, check out my previous article, Preferred Stocks Belong In Your Portfolio. Or check out Forbes, What is Preferred Stock?

The Role of Preferreds

The preferreds we own have yields from 4-6% or more. Today, with the yield on 10-year Treasury Bonds around 1.25%, preferred stock dividends offer a nice rate of return compared to bonds but without all of the volatility of common stocks. And with the current high valuations on US Stocks, Preferred Stocks offer us an alternative that complements our stock and bond holdings. It’s a nice way to diversify our holdings, but preferreds remain a small, niche investment that most people have never owned.

Presently, our Premiere Wealth Portfolios have between 7-11.5% in Preferred Stocks. In our Defensive Managers Select portfolio, we have a 20% position in Preferred Stocks. Those are significant weights for a satellite position, but it remains a small piece of our overall allocation.

We buy a basket of individual Preferred Stocks. For each client, we will own a minimum of 5 and as many as 15 individual Preferred Stocks. As of today, our largest holdings include Capital One, Wells Fargo, Regions Financial, JP Morgan, and Brookfield Finance. Most preferreds are issues by financial companies, although there are some issued by real estate and utilities, too.

I prefer to own individual preferreds to have better control over the portfolio and keep costs down. Generally, I like to buy Exchange Traded Funds. And there is an ETF for preferreds: PFF from iShares. Two problems. First, the ETF owns many preferreds trading at a very large premium to Par. That means you would be buying a preferred at $27 that could be redeemed at $25 within 5 years. We have to look at the Yield to Call to understand this. Second, the ETF has an expense ratio of almost half a percent (0.46%), and that would reduce investors’ return. In a sector where the expected return is only 4-5%, that expense ratio would be a big drag on returns.

Managing Preferreds

Within our baskets of preferreds, we’ve had quite a few trades this summer. Generally, for most of my clients, we own preferreds in IRAs, since they create taxable income. In an IRA, we can trade without any capital gains impact. With yields falling this year, there has been a high demand for Preferred Stock Dividends. And this has pushed up the price of many Preferred Stocks. This is not a good time to just blindly buy any Preferred Stocks – many are very expensive.

So, we have been rotating from preferreds with higher prices to those with lower prices. In some cases, a Preferred with a high dividend payment actually has a low Yield to Call. If you are paying $27 for a preferred that is callable for $25, you are paying an 8% premium. And that premium will decline to the call date, creating a loss of capital that will eat into your total return. I am finding opportunities to improve our preferred stock dividends with some careful trades.

Trading and Upgrading

There are a couple of scenarios where we have placed trades to replace one preferred with another.

Price comparison. Here are two preferreds with the same coupon of 4.45% and similar credit ratings and call dates. The Schwab (series J) is trading at $26.57, while Regions Financial (series E) is at $25.60. This is an opportunity to sell an expensive share and use the proceeds to buy more shares of the lower priced preferred.
Same company, different series. Capital One’s series L has a coupon of 4.375% and the series N is at 4.25%. Both have the same call date of September 2026. There is a one-eighth of a percent difference in coupon. So, when the L’s were trading for 2.5% more than the N’s, that is too big of a difference. We sold the L’s and bought the N’s. Then this week, the prices swapped and we were able to sell the N’s and buy back the higher yield L’s for less. Many companies have multiple series of preferred stocks. Sometimes one is more expensive and the other is less expensive, for no logical reason. We’ve also swapped between the Goldman Sachs series C and D, which both have a 4% coupon.
New issues. We can buy IPOs of Preferred Stocks. We’ve bought a new JP Morgan preferred at $25 this summer and it is now up to $25.56. Other times, we have been able to buy preferreds for below $25 for a few days after the IPO, when the issue was undersubscribed. We’ve bought shares of Regions Financial and Texas Capital Bancshares at a discount this way. Over a few weeks, new issues usually move to where similar preferreds are priced.

Long-Term Outlook

I’ve been looking at all types of income securities for the last 17 years. Not just Preferred Stocks, but Closed End Funds, MLPs, REITs, and individual corporate and municipal bonds. It’s a lot of time to manage individual securities correctly, and it takes skill and knowledge that takes years to develop.

I like the idea of Preferred Stock Dividends to add income to our portfolio models. And that’s the purpose behind our Alternatives sleeve to the portfolio: to seek investments with a better return than bonds, and lower correlation and volatility compared to stocks.

For now it’s working as I had hoped. What might change this? If we see the Federal Reserve start to raise interest rates and see the long-end of the yield curve move up, this would be negative for preferreds. That’s why this is a Satellite holding and not a Core. There may well come a day that we liquidate the preferreds for another asset class with better prospects. Even though we are buy and hold, long-term investors, by no means is the approach a purely passive portfolio. Rather than looking in the rear view mirror, we construct portfolios looking forward at the challenges we see facing markets today.

Have a question about Preferred Stock Dividends? Curious about your Retirement Income? Let’s talk about our portfolios and how they might work for you. Click Contact on the top of this page to get in touch!

Charitable Giving in 2021

Posted On May 26, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning, Tax Strategies /

For anyone who is looking at their charitable giving in 2021, there are some important things to know. In 2020 as the Coronavirus started, the government recognized the terrible impact the pandemic would have on charities. As a result, the CARES Act included several new tax benefits to encourage charitable giving in 2020.

If you made a cash donation in 2020, you could deduct $300 from your tax return. This was “above the line”, which means you did not have to itemize your deductions to take this $300 deduction. (If your itemized deductions exceed your standard deduction, you could deduct more than the $300.)
Normally, your cash donations are limited to 60% of your Adjusted Gross Income. The CARES Act increased this to 100% for 2020. (Excess donations could be carried forward for 5 years.) This means that if your income was $400,000, you could donate $400,000 and reduce your AGI to zero.

CARES Act Provisions Extended

Both of those benefits were only for 2020. But as Milton Friedman said, “there is nothing as permanent as a temporary government program.” So, the government has extended these two benefits under the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2021.

For 2021, you can still deduct $300 for cash donations as an above the line deduction. Unlike 2020, this is per spouse, so a married couple filing jointly can deduct $600 in 2021. And the 100% of AGI limit is also extended through December 31, 2021. Note that these apply only to “cash” donations and not to donations of stocks or goods. The limit for donating stocks remains 30% of AGI.

I do have to question whether you really would want to deduct 100% of AGI and take your taxable income to zero for one year. Let’s say you have $400,000 in annual taxable income, want to donate $400,000, and are married. Consider these two simplified scenarios. I’m using the 2021 tax rates for both years (we don’t know yet the exact income levels for 2022.)

You donate $400,000 in year one. Your taxes are zero. The next year, your income is back to $400,000. In year 2, you would owe $84,042 in Federal Income Taxes.
You donate $200,000 in years one and two. In both years, your remaining taxable income is $200,000. You would owe $36,042 in each year, for a total of $72,084 over two years. So, you actually would save $12,000 in taxes by spreading out your donations over two years, rather than doing 100% in one year. That’s because with a graduated tax system, taking your taxes to zero isn’t necessary. You pay only 12% on taxes up to $81,050.

Charitable Strategies for 2021

If you do want to make a large donation, consider pairing it with a Roth Conversion. The donation could take your AGI to zero, and then you can choose how much of your IRA/401(k) you want to convert and pay those taxes today. Then, your Roth is growing tax-free.
For many individuals or couples, the $300/$600 donation fully covers their charitable giving in 2021. Make sure you keep your receipts and donation letters! Most donors do not have enough deductions to itemize.
You can still donate your appreciated securities and save on capital gains tax. Do this if your donations will remain under the 30% of AGI threshold. Even if you are only taking the standard deduction, at least you will avoid capital gains. If you itemize and exceed the 30% threshold, you can carry forward your donations for five years.
Pack your donations into one year and establish a Donor Advised Fund (DAF). You get the upfront tax deduction and can then distribute money to charities in the years ahead. This is a good strategy if you are having a year with very high income, such as from selling a business or large asset.
If, on the other hand, you anticipate that your tax rate will be going up, spread out your donations or hold off to future years. This could be due to your income going up, tax increases from Washington on the wealthy, or the sunset of current tax rates after 2025.
If you are over age 70 1/2, you can give from your IRA tax-free. If you are 72, this counts towards your RMD. While the CARES Act eliminated RMDs for 2020, they are back for 2021. You can make a Qualified Charitable Donation (QCD) of up to $100,000 a year from your IRA.

Tax Smart Giving

No one gives to charity just for the tax benefits. We have causes and organizations we want to support. Giving back is a way of showing gratitude for our success, helping others, and being a positive contributor to making the world a better place. When we have an Abundance mindset, giving with purpose is a joy. Still, if we can be smart about our charitable giving in 2021, there can be significant tax savings. That could mean not only lower taxes for you, but ultimately, more money can go to charities in the years ahead.

Since our founding in 2014, Good Life Wealth Management has donated 10% of profits to charity each year. Additionally, we offer a Matching Gift Program to our clients each fall, in which we match $200 of donations to their favorite charity.

When Can You Splurge?

Posted On May 2, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Behavioral Finance /

We all have things we enjoy, and the question of when can you splurge has unique financial planning considerations. We probably think about these choices, consciously or subconsciously, every day. And while I don’t think there can be a hard and fast rule, there are some things to consider. Once we start peeling back the proverbial onion, there are many psychological layers to this question. We all have a relationship with money. It is based on our experiences, upbringing, and innate preferences. The question isn’t just When can you splurge? It is How can you have a better, more effective relationship with your money?

“Money makes a terrible master but an excellent servant”
P.T. Barnum

First, let’s define what we mean by splurge. Clearly, your normal living expenses should not count as a splurge. But, even this is problematic. There are many Americans who have adopted a lifestyle which they cannot afford. Their choice of housing, cars, vacations, clothes, etc. consumes all of their income. And then when an emergency does occur, it has to go on the credit card. They end up in debt and there is no way to pay off those debts with their current consumption. They don’t see that they are splurging already, and spending in an out of control manner. Read more: Machiavelli and Happiness in an Age of Materialism.

A definition of splurge as “to spend money freely or extravagantly, especially on something special as a way to make yourself feel good.” Most definitions imply wastefulness and vanity. But I also think that occasionally being able to spend money on things which you enjoy is a great freedom. We all may have interests which make no sense to others. Perhaps it is cars, or watches, or shoes, or a boat. To us, it is the realization of a dream. To someone else, it would be a waste of money. That’s okay. The blue car pictured above is my splurge from this March. Maybe that doesn’t do anything for you. For me, a lightweight sports car with a manual transmission is a joy.

When Not to Splurge

Let’s begin by laying down a few prerequisites for a splurge. Perhaps it is easiest to think of these as a checklist:

Can you pay in Cash? Or would this splurge be funded by credit card debt? If you don’t have the cash to purchase an item, maybe you should hold off until you can afford it.
Do you have an emergency fund with at least 3-6 months of living expenses?
Are you funding accounts for your long-term goals? For example, a 401(k) or IRA for retirement, a savings account for a house down payment, or a 529 plan for your kid’s college.

If you can pass these three prerequisites, then the splurge is not going to hurt you. After all, we don’t want to look back on our splurges with regret and be angry that we made a mistake. Number one, credit cards, also suggests that if you presently have a lot of credit card debt, you should not splurge. You should prioritize paying off your cards, first. How much should you save for number three? If you are in your 20’s and are currently saving at least 12% towards your 401(k), I think you are off to a good start. If you got a late start, you may need to save more than 12% to be prepared for retirement. Read more: What percentage should you save?

Start with a Plan

My purpose as a Financial Planner is to help you be smart with your money. Our ultimate goal is to make sure you achieve your financial goals. With that in mind, we are always looking to design long-term diversified investment strategies built within a planning process. We are always looking for the most cost-efficient, high-value ways to manage your money.

The beauty of the plan is that it creates awareness and a process for change. For some individuals, that may mean establishing automatic savings programs to fulfill your needs for retirement, debt management, house goals, college savings, etc. We can break down each goal into a monthly target and set it on auto-pilot. Read more: Do You Hate Saving Money?

For others, a plan can show them that they are on track. Because many people are afraid to splurge. And I am writing for them, too. Yes, there are people who need to splurge less. But there are also people who need to splurge more.

If your relationship to money is centered on fear, anxiety, and regret, you are carrying a terrible amount of stress with you at all times. This is a scarcity mentality, which is psychologically harmful. It impacts your behavior and hurts your satisfaction. In one study, adults who had a positive attitude about aging lived 7.5 years longer than those with a negative mindset. Your thoughts matter! Read more: 5 Ways to Go From A Scarcity to Abundance Mindset.

Your plan will let you know how much you can splurge and give you the confidence that you aren’t doing anything to hurt your future self. Maturity is often defined as the ability to delay gratification. We all need to save for the future. Still, splurging doesn’t require that we have already accomplished all our goals! Only that we are presently taking the steps necessary to get us there. If you want to feel more confident about your splurge, start with your financial plan. Otherwise, how do you know?

But Should You Splurge?

Still not sure if a splurge is a good idea? Afraid you will regret a big purchase? A few last thoughts.

Avoid impulse buys. Shopping as therapy for stress, boredom, or other problems is only a band-aid. Find a better solution. Talk to a friend, go for a walk, do something that makes you feel better and actually addresses the emotional need.
Could this be easily reversed? Some items hold their value. If you buy an item for $3,000 and could resell it in a couple of years for $3,000, it’s a fairly low risk proposition. And if it brings you joy, then why not.
Have you shopped around and done your research? Can you buy used or find an alternative? A splurge doesn’t have to be reckless; see if you can find a great deal.
Do you have a bucket list of experiences that you’d like to do and and see? A splurge can also be a trip or event, and it is healthy to spend on creating memories and not simply buying more things. We only get so many trips around the sun. Our time here will go quickly and it is finite. 10 years from now, you may still smile when you think about that epic vacation to Machu Picchu. You probably aren’t going to be thinking about what it cost because in the long run, it didn’t matter.
An itch needs to be scratched. Sometimes, an idea takes hold and we simply need to do something. If it doesn’t go away, maybe we will be richer as a person for having allowed ourselves to live a little more freely. What is the worst that will happen if you do this one splurge?

Intention, Choice, and Balance

Money is a great tool to lead a satisfying and interesting life. We all know that more things can’t bring you happiness. And we all know someone who spends too much and rationalizes it as “self-care”. How can you find a balance? At the one extreme, many Americans are not saving anything and are two paychecks away from being broke. At the other extreme, there are hoarders who are paralyzed with fear of spending and losing their money. I’m a frugal person, but this can be taken too far.

Choose what is truly important to your life. Don’t let others decide for you what is a good use of your money. But be smart. Start with a plan and cover your bases. When you have your savings plan established, be intentional with your spending so your choices align with your goals. By that I mean, don’t just spend blindly, splurge in ways that are meaningful to you. Maybe bonding on a family vacation is more important than upgrading your car this year. Maybe keeping your housing costs reasonable will allow you to spend on other priorities. The balance is deciding where to splurge and where to not spend your money. The right balance is to splurge neither too much, nor too little. Never splurge to keep up with the Joneses.

When can you splurge? I’m not going to show you the compound interest on a daily cup of Starbucks. I’m not interested in slapping people on the wrist to make them feel bad about how they spend their money. I believe you can align the head and the heart on your spending. When you have invested time and energy into your financial plan, you will have earned the confidence to know when you can splurge. Then, giving yourself permission to splurge will not be from weakness, but to help you live the life you truly want.

What Percentage Should You Save?

Posted On April 24, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Retirement Planning /

One of the key questions facing investors is “What percentage should you save of your income?” People like a quick rule of thumb, and so you will often hear “10%” as an answer. This is an easy round number, a mental shortcut, and feasible for most people. Unfortunately, it is also a sloppy, lazy, and inaccurate answer. 10% is better than nothing, but does 10% guarantee you will have a comfortable retirement?

I created a spreadsheet to show you two things. Firstly, how much you would accumulate over your working years. This is based on the years of saving, rate of return, and inflation (or how much your salary grows). Secondly, how much this portfolio could provide in retirement income and how much of your pre-retirement salary it would replace.

The fact is that there can be no one answer to the question of what percentage you should save. For example, are you starting at 25 or 45? In other words, are you saving for 40 years or 20 years? Are you earning 7% or 1%? When you change any of these inputs you will get a wildly different result.

10% from age 25

Let’s start with a base case of someone who gets a job at age 25. He or she contributes 10% of their salary to their 401(k) every year until retirement. They work for 40 years, until age 65, and then retire. Along the way, their income increases by 2.5% a year. Their 401(k) grows at 7%. All of these are assumptions, not guaranteed returns, but are possible, at least historically.

In Year 1, let’s say their salary is $50,000. At 10%, they save $5,000 into their 401(k) and have a $5,000 portfolio at the end of the year. In Year 2, we would then assume their salary has grown to $51,250. Their 401(k) grows and they contribute 10% of their new salary. Their 401(k) has $10,475 at the end of Year 2.

We continue this year by year through Year 40. At this point, their salary is $130,978, and they are still contributing 10%. At the end of the year, their 401(k) would be $1,365,488. That’s what you’d have if you save 10% of your 40 years of earnings and grow at 7% a year. Not bad! Certainly most people would feel great to have $1.3 million as their nest egg at age 65.

How much can you withdraw once you retire? 4% remains a safe answer, because you need to increase your withdrawals for inflation once you are in retirement. 4% of $1,365,488 is $54,619. How much of your salary will this replace? The answer is 41.7%. We can change the amount of your starting salary, but the answer will remain the same. With these factors (10% contributions, 2.5% wage growth, 7% rate of return, and 40 years), your portfolio would replace 41.7% of your final salary. That’s it! That could be a big cut in your lifestyle.

What percentage should you replace?

41.7% sounds like a really low number, but you don’t necessarily have to replace 100% of your pre-retirement income. To get a more accurate number of what you need, we would subtract the following savings:

You weren’t spending the 10% you saved each year to your 401(k)
7.65% saved on FICA taxes versus wage income
Some percentage saved on income taxes, depending on your pre- and post-retirement income.
Your Social Security Benefit and/or Pension Income
Have you paid off your mortgage, or have other expenses that will be eliminated in retirement?

Many people will only need 75% to 80% of their final salary in retirement income to maintain the same standard of living. If their Social Security benefit covers another 20%, then they would only need a replacement rate of 55% to 60% from their 401(k).

Time Value of Money

The biggest factor in compounding is time. In our original example of 40 years of accumulation, the final portfolio amount was $1,365,488. However, what if you only save for 30 years? Maybe you didn’t start investing until 35. Perhaps you want to retire at age 55 and not 65? Either way, at the 30 year mark, the portfolio would have grown to $666,122. By saving for another 10 years, your accumulation will more than double to $1.365 million.

Here’s a chart that is perhaps a more useful answer to the question of what percentage you should save. It depends on how many years you will save and what percentage of your income you want to replace.

Income Replacement	50%	60%	70%
in 40 Years	12.0%	14.4%	16.8%
in 35 Years	15.7%	18.8%	22.0%
in 30 Years	20.9%	25.1%	29.2%
in 25 Years	28.5%	34.2%	39.9%
in 20 Years	40.3%	48.4%	56.4%

How do you read this? If you want to replace 50% of your income in 40 years from now, starting at zero dollars, you need to save 12% of your income. Actually, this is pretty close to the 10% rule of thumb. But no one says “If you are starting at age 25 and are planning to save for the next 40 years, 10% is a good rule of thumb”. What if you are starting later? Or, what if you want to have your portfolio replace more than 50% of your income.

As you reduce the accumulation period, you need a higher contribution rate. For example, at the 50% replacement level, your required contribution increases from 12% to 15.7% to 20.9% as you go from 40 to 35 to 30 Years. And if you are planning to retire in 20 years and have not started, you would need to save 40.3%.

Similarly, if you want your portfolio to replace more than 50% of your income, the percent to contribute increases as you stretch to 60% or 70%. These figures are quite daunting, and admittedly unrealistic. But one thing that may help slightly will be a company match. If you contribute 10% and your company matches 4% of your salary, you are actually at 14%. Don’t forget to include that amount!

What can you do?

We’ve made some conservative assumptions and perhaps things will go even better than we calculated. For example, if you achieve an 8% return instead of 7%, these contribution requirements would be lower. Or if the inflation rate is lower than 2.5%. Or if you can withdraw more than 4% in retirement. All of those “levers” would move the contribution rate lower. Of course, this cuts both ways. The required contribution rate could be higher (even worse), if your return is less than 7%, inflation higher than 2.5%, or safe withdrawal rate less than 4%.

If you want to consider these factors in more detail, please read the following articles:

If you’d like to play around with the spreadsheet, drop me an email (scott@goodlifewealth.com) and I’ll send it to you, no charge. Then you can enter your own income and other inputs and see how it might work for you. While our example is based on someone who is starting from zero, hopefully, you are not! You can also change the portfolio starting value to today’s figures on the spreadsheet.

The key is this: Begin with the End in Mind. The question of What percentage should you save depends on how long you will accumulate and what percent of income you want to replace in retirement. Saving 10% is not a goal – it’s an input rather than an outcome. Having $1.3 million in 40 years or $2.4 million in 35 years is a tangible goal. Then we can calculate how much to save and what rate of return is necessary to achieve that goal. That’s the start of a real plan.

You don’t have to try to figure this out on your own. I can help. Here’s my calendar. You are invited to schedule a free 30 minute call to discuss your situation in more detail. After that, you can determine if you’d like to work with me as your financial advisor. Sometimes, it isn’t the right fit or the right time, and that’s fine too. I am still happy to chat, answer your questions, and share whatever value or information I can. But don’t use a Rule of Thumb, get an answer that is right for your personal situation.

Strategies if the Step-Up in Basis is Eliminated

Posted On March 31, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Tax Strategies / 1

Today, we look at strategies if the step-up is basis in eliminated for estate planning. There were two new proposals in the Senate this week which will target inherited wealth. These two Acts, if passed, would completely change Estate Planning for many families. The two Acts are called the STEP Act and the 99.5% Act.

The STEP Act

The STEP Act (Sensible Taxation and Equity Promotion Act), proposed by Senators Booker, Sanders, Warren, Whitehouse, and Van Hook would eliminate the Step-Up in Cost Basis. A Step-Up in Basis means that upon Death, an asset has its cost basis reset to the date of death. This allows the heirs to immediately sell an asset and receive the funds without owing any taxes. Or, if they choose to hold on to the asset, they will only owe tax on the capital gains from the date of death forward. Otherwise, they would owe taxes based on their parent’s cost basis (or other decedent).

The STEP Act proposes to eliminate the Step Up in Basis, retroactively to January 1, 2021. In its place, the Act would allow a one-time exclusion of up to $1 million of inherited capital gains. It also allows the tax to be paid over 15 years if it is an illiquid asset like a farm or business. Many older parents have held on to assets, such as mutual funds or real estate, specifically to get a step-up in basis for their children. Allowing for the exclusion of $1 million in capital gains at death will help most families. But include real estate, and many families will have over $1 million in unrealized capital gains. And those families will now be paying a capital gains tax.

The 99.5% Act

The 99.5% Act, proposed by Senator Sanders, will increase the Estate Tax paid by many families. Currently, the Estate Tax Exemption is $11.7 million ($23.4 million for a couple), which has effectively eliminated the Estate Tax for Middle Class Families. Previously, the Estate Tax Exemption was $1 million, as recently as 2003. My clients have welcomed the increase of the Estate Tax Exclusion over the past 17 years. The 99.5% Act includes provisions to:

Reduce the Estate Exemption from $11.7 million to $3.5 million.
Reduce the Unified Gift Exemption from $11.7 million to $1 million per lifetime.
Raise the Estate Tax Rate to a range of 45-65%.
Reduce the Annual Gift Tax Exclusion from $15,000 to $10,000 per donee, AND impose an annual limit of $20,000 per donor.
Reduce certain tax benefits of Trusts, Generation Skipping Trusts, etc.

While I don’t cater to the ultra-wealthy, I do have a number of Middle Class families who this will impact. Ideas in Washington often stick around until they become reality. So, if these Acts don’t get passed now, don’t think that we will never hear them again. I don’t think there will be much empathy for families who have over $1 million in unrealized capital gains. However, in some cases, children will need to sell the houses, farms, and businesses they inherit to pay for these new taxes.

How Many Taxes?

Just to be clear, the Estate Tax is in addition to any Income Tax or Capital Gains Tax. Under the two proposals, an individual who dies with $5 million, would owe a 45% Estate tax on $1.5 million (the amount above $3.5 million). That’s a $675,000 Estate Tax Bill. Then, if their cost basis was $1 million and the unrealized capital gain was $4 million, the heirs would owe another 23.8% on $3 million of capital gains. That would be another $714,000 in taxes, for a total of $1,389,000. Presently, that tax would be zero, so we are talking about a huge increase. Let’s consider eight strategies if the step-up in basis is eliminated and other changes enacted.

Ways to Reduce Taxes under STEP and 99.5% Acts

1. If the Step-Up in Basis is eliminated, you may want to pay your capital gains gradually. Aim to keep your total unrealized gains under $1 million. For example, if you have $2 million in gains, perhaps you could harvest $100,000 of gains for the next 10 years. The goal is for you to pay the gains gradually at the 15% rate and save your heirs from being taxed at the 23.8% rate.

There is a separate proposal from Biden to increase the long-term capital gains rate for taxpayers in the highest tax bracket to 39.6%. Plus you would be subject to the 3.8% Medicare Surtax and state income taxes. And then, capital gains will be taxed at 43.4% to well over 50% in many states. The government would take more than half of your gains! If that happens, it will be vitally important to harvest gains regularly to avoid pushing your heirs into the top bracket.

Roth IRAs

2. Keep your high growth investments in a Roth IRA. Beneficiaries inherit a Roth IRA income tax-free. The Roth 401(k) looks better every year, versus a tax-deferred Traditional 401(k). If higher taxes are ahead, it may be preferable to use the Roth 401(k).

3. Gradually convert your Traditional IRAs to a Roth. By pre-paying the taxes today, you can both shrink the size of your taxable estate and reduce the Income tax burden on your heirs. The current tax rates will expire after 2025. The next five years is a good window to make Roth conversions.

Plan Your Giving

4. Give away your full Annual Gift Tax Exclusion every year. Reduce your Estate. Please note that the direct payment of someone’s medical or education bills does not count towards the annual exclusion. Do not reimburse your children for those expenses – make the payment directly to the doctor, college, etc.

5. If you make charitable donations, give away your most highly appreciated securities, rather than cash. This will reduce your taxable gains. If you do want to leave money to charity, make a charity a beneficiary of your Traditional IRA. If you are over age 70 1/2, you can make charitable donations of up to $100,000 a year from your IRA as Qualified Charitable Donations, or QCDs. QCDs can reduce your taxes so you have more budget to harvest capital gains from taxable accounts. You do not have to itemize to deduct QCDs.

Other Estate Tax Savings

6. Sell your primary residence. A couple, while alive, can exclude $500,000 in capital gains on the sale of their primary residence, as long as they lived there at least 2 of the past 5 years. ($250,000 for single filers.) Let your kids inherit the house and that capital gains exclusion may be lost. Better to sell it yourself and buy another house where you don’t have the big capital gains.

7. Maximize your contributions to 529 College Savings Plans for your children or grandchildren. These will pass outside of your taxable estate and will grow tax-free for the beneficiaries. 529 Plans will not be taxable under any of these proposals, and will become a more important estate planning tool.

8. Life Insurance proceeds are not subject to income tax to the beneficiary. Additionally, If we establish your insurance policy with an Irrevocable Life Insurance Trust (ILIT) as the owner, the life insurance will pass outside of your Estate and not be subject to the Estate Tax. This didn’t matter as much when the Estate Exemption was $11.7 million. ILITs will benefit a lot more families if the Estate Exemption is reduced to $3.5 million. Include the tax benefits, and Permanent Life Insurance looks even better as an asset.

Higher Taxes Ahead?

I am proud to be an American and pay my fair share of taxes. Still, these proposals represent a massive tax increase on a lot of families. Many professional couples have the potential to have over $3.5 million before they pass away, and easily over $1 million in capital gains, too. We will keep you posted on this legislation. It seems likely that the two Acts will be merged and some compromise reached before a final version is up for a vote.

Luckily, there is a lot we can do to offset some of these proposed taxes and reduce the burden on your Estate and Heirs. Last minute strategies won’t work here, though. Families need to be thinking about their transfer of wealth years and decades ahead of time. Have questions on strategies if the step-up in basis is eliminated? Feel free to drop me an email.

Inflation and Real Estate

Posted On March 26, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning /

In recent weeks, people have become more concerned about the possibility of inflation and its impact on Real Estate. This is a complex subject, but certainly important for your financial security. With interest rates near historic lows, now is a great time to get a 15 or 30 year mortgage. And with the possibility of inflation increasing, buying a home now could lock in both today’s real estate prices and interest rates.

Globally, governments are spending at an unprecedented rate, taking on vast amounts of debt. According to the US Debt Clock, we presently owe over $224,000 per US taxpayer. Will we ever repay this debt? There’s no appetite for austerity – reducing spending – or raising taxes to payoff the debt. No, we will need to inflate our way out of debt. With 3% inflation, $1,000 in debt will “feel like” only $912 in three years. Ask someone who borrowed $250,000 twenty years ago for a house. It probably felt like a huge amount at the time, but became easier to pay over the years.

For people who don’t have a house, there is a real fear of missing out. Many are concerned that if they don’t buy right now, real estate prices may soon rise to the point where they can no longer afford a house. In densely populated parts of the country, many people are already priced out of the market. People from California, New York, Seattle, etc. are moving to Dallas, Austin, Nashville, or other places in search of better real estate prices and lower taxes.

I bought a house in January and moved to Little Rock, which is even more affordable than Dallas. We are really enjoying our new neighborhood and city. When you work from home, it’s important to have a place you love. So, I understand the feelings people are having about inflation and real estate today. Here’s my advice to first time homebuyers and to people consider their house as an investment.

Buy Versus Rent

I do think now is a great time to buy a house – at least in theory! Owning can make financial sense versus renting, but primarily with two considerations:

The longer you stay in the house, the better. It takes a long time to really benefit from the impact of inflation on real estate. If you stay in the house less than five years, you may only break even, after you pay realtor fees and closing costs.
Your house is still an expense. There are taxes, insurance, mortgage interest, maintenance, furnishings, etc. When I see people stretch for the most expensive house they can afford, it often means they are unable to save as much in their other accounts. Twenty years later, they have only a small 401(k). Meanwhile, their colleagues who maxed out their 401(k)s could have a million dollar nest egg.

So, if you are ready to put down roots, yes, buy a house now. However, I have a feeling that we may see these low interest rates for a while longer. If the time isn’t right for you personally, then wait. If your career may take you to another location, then wait. Growing family? Get a house you can keep and not out grow. I do think you will have plenty of chances to get in real estate in the future. Renting is not only fine, it may even allow you to grow your net worth when you invest your savings versus owning. Renting provides flexibility and fixed costs, versus the surprise expenses that come with having a home. If anything, we need to remove the stigma from renting that it is somehow a barrier to financial success.

Your House is Not an Investment

If Real Estate is such a good inflation hedge, then it would make sense for everyone to buy a million dollar mansion and get rich off their home, right? Should you buy the most expensive house you can afford? Let’s consider this carefully.

Increasing house prices is not the same as an investment return. To measure inflation of real estate, many people refer to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is great data, but flawed if you are trying to use it for an investment rationale. It simply measures the selling price of a house compared to that house’s previous sale. That’s what your return would be as a homeowner, right? No, the homeowner makes much, much less.

While the Index shows what it costs to buy a house, it does not reflect the return to owners. The index does not include: transaction costs (6% realtor commissions are egregious today, really), ongoing expenses (property taxes, insurance, etc.), or improvements. Taxes and Insurance can run 2.5% to 3% a year. Someone who puts in $100,000 in renovations to a house and adds two rooms? Case-Shiller doesn’t consider any of these costs that may occur between sales of a house.

As of 12/31/2020, the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite shows a 10-year price increase of 5.39%. That’s impressive, but that’s not the net return to home owners. So, let’s not think this data is saying that a house is the same as a mutual fund that returned 5.39% over the past 10 years. (By the way, over that same 10 year period, an investment in the Vanguard 500 ETF (VOO) had a return of 13.84%.) Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but I just want people to understand that comparing the Case-Shiller index to an investment return is flawed and not the purpose of that data.

Remodels and Affordability

Planning to remodel? That’s fine to enjoy your home, improve its usability, and to save you from having to move. However, is it a good investment? According to Remodeling Magazine’s 2020 National Data, no type of remodeling recouped 100% of its cost. The top 10 types of remodels recouped 66.8% to 95.6% as a National Average. It’s fine to improve and update your home, but let’s not try to rationalize that decision by thinking that we are making a great investment. The data suggests this is unlikely.

Home affordability: House prices are based on supply and demand. Demand depends on affordability. With years of slow home building, the supply of houses is tight – at least in states with population growth. In areas of population decline, there may be an oversupply. When there are more buyers than sellers, prices rise. In the long run, however, house prices reflect what people can afford.

We’ve had thirty years of falling interest rates. I think my parents’ first mortgage was at 16%. Today, that would be under 3%. That’s one reason why home prices have grown so much. Affordability isn’t based on the home selling price, it’s based on the monthly payment. And since mortgage eligibility is based on your debt to income ratio, home prices cannot increase faster than income in the long run, without falling interest rates. So, I don’t think we are going to see house prices going up by 10% every year if wages only increase by 2%. Who will be the buyers?

Taxes and Investing

It used to be that home ownership came with a nice tax break. That’s no longer the case. I know it seems unfair, but economists finally got through to Washington that the tax benefits were disproportionally helping the ultra wealthy and not the average home owner. For 2021, the standard deduction for a married couple is $25,100. Very few people will itemize. Your itemized deductions include mortgage interest, state and local taxes (with a cap of $10,000), and charitable donations. You probably will not have more than $25,100 in these deductions. That means that you are getting zero tax benefit for your home’s taxes and interest, compared to being a renter. In 2017, I wrote about this change: Home Tax Deductions: Overrated and Getting Worse.

Don’t think of your home as an investment, but as a cost. It’s probably your largest cost. Treat it as a expense to be managed. Your ability to save in a 401(k), IRA, HSA, 529 Plan, Brokerage Account, etc., depends on your preserving the cash flow to fund those accounts. Buy the most expensive house you can and you will be house rich and cash poor. I don’t think that there will be enough inflation in real estate to make that a winning bet.

Your home equity is part of your net worth, but at best consider it like a bond. In spite of today’s inflation concerns and fear of missing out, your home is not likely to make you rich. I remain a fan of the 15-year mortgage and find that my wealthiest clients usually want to be debt-free rather than use leverage to get the biggest house possible. Read: The 15-Year Mortgage, Myth and Reality. Even as home prices increase, please recognize that inflation in real estate is higher than your return on investment once you include all the costs of ownership.

Thinking Long Term

If you are ready to buy a home, now may be a good time. Low interest rates and rising home prices are going to help you. Buying can build your net worth versus renting, if you are ready to stay in one place. Think of your house as an expense and not an investment, and you will enjoy it more and have realistic expectations. Real estate and inflation are linked, but hopefully you now realize that home prices do not equate to return on investment. Build your wealth elsewhere – through investing, creating a business, and growing your career and earnings.

Don’t be afraid of missing out, supply will catch up to demand eventually. And the rise of remote working in the past year means that more people can work from anywhere. People can move to the location they want and can afford. This will help equalize prices nationally, as more workers move from high-cost areas to places with better value.

Low interest rates should cause inflation to pick up. This is government planned financial repression, and it will penalize savers, like grandparents who want to just park their money in CDs. Those will be Certificates of Depreciation – guaranteed to not maintain their purchasing power and keep up with inflation. Low interest rates will benefit debtors, especially when that debt is used to buy appreciating assets and not depreciating things, like cars. Use leverage wisely and it can help grow your net worth. Financial planning is more than just investments, and my goal is to help you succeed in defining and creating your own version of The Good Life.

10 Year Expected Returns

Posted On March 3, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Portfolio Management /

With the market rising so fast in the past year, investors are wondering if the 10 year expected returns are still attractive. Are we in a speculative bubble? Other investors see certain stocks soaring and are driving prices even higher. Will recent returns continue? While it’s natural to fret about the future of the stock market, we suggest investors resist the temptation to try to time the market.

It may be helpful, however, to evaluate current valuations and consider how to weight a diversified, buy and hold portfolio. Based on present levels and projected growth, the Vanguard Capital Markets Model calculates the 10 year expected returns for various asset classes. We use this information both in our portfolio construction as well as in our financial planning calculations.

Expected returns today are lower than historical returns. The stock market has risen much faster than corporate earnings. Now, companies need to catch up with their stock valuations. Dividend Yields are lower than historical, as well as economic growth and inflation. All of these are components of projected future Equity returns.

Vanguard recently updated their 10 year expected returns, based on market levels on December 31, 2020. You can compare these figures to six months ago, when I last wrote about Vanguard’s estimates.

Vanguard’s 10 Year Expected Returns

US Stocks: 3.0% to 5.0%
International Stocks: 6.1% to 8.1%
US Growth: -0.1% to 1.9%
Value: 4.4% to 6.4%
Large Cap: 2.9% to 4.9%
Small Cap: 3.2% to 5.2%
US REITs: 3.0% to 5.0%
US Aggregate Bonds: 0.8% to 1.8%
International Bonds: 0.6% to 1.6%
Emerging Markets Bonds: 1.5% to 2.5%

These estimates are 10 year annualized projections and are not guaranteed. There will undoubtedly be down years and this is not meant to suggest returns over the next year or in the short-term. Investing involves risk of loss of capital. Source: Vanguard Market Perspectives, March 2021.

Key Takeaways

10 year expected returns are lower than historical returns. I have cautioned in the past about using historical returns in financial planning projections. We use projected returns. Based on the midpoint of Vanguard’s figures, a 60/40 portfolio with 30% US Stocks, 30% International Stocks, and 40% US Aggregate Bonds has a projected return of 3.85% a year. This may cause some investors to rethink their allocations.
US Growth Stocks are overvalued. US Value is more attractive for a long-term investor today. Be careful of chasing 2020’s hot stocks! We have already built a sizeable position in Value stocks in our models.
International Stocks are more attractive than US Stocks. Be diversified and don’t invest in just US companies. Presently, International Stocks make up 43% of the World Index. If you don’t have at least 43% of your equities in International, you have a Home Bias. This may have worked well in the past decade, but appears less likely to be the case for the next 10 years.
US Small Cap may offer a diversification benefit to Large Cap. REITs on the other hand, have the same return profile as US Stocks, but are riskier (higher volatility). So, we are avoiding REITs in our models.
Bonds and Cash serve primarily as portfolio defense today. They offer little return potential. Vanguard projects inflation will be 1.1% to 2.1% over the next 10 years. Bond and cash returns may be less than inflation, which means you are losing purchasing power. Still, fixed income offers some benefits to rebalance when things are volatile. On their own, bonds are not making much of a positive contribution to portfolio returns.
Preferred Stocks, Convertible Bonds, and Emerging Markets Bonds offer an attractive return potential compared to expected returns on core categories like US Stocks or US Aggregate Bonds. We have expanded our Alternative holdings in 2020 and again in 2021. Read more: Investment Themes for 2021.

Stay Diversified, Don’t Speculate

While we do tilt portfolios towards areas of relative value, it is important to remain diversified. Don’t put all your eggs in the one basket with the highest expected return. There’s no guarantee that Vanguard’s projected returns will become reality. Regardless of short-term market movements, our investment strength comes from keeping costs low, using Index strategies, staying diversified, and tax-efficiency.

The stock volatility over the past 12 months has been remarkable. But, it’s not unprecedented, though. I remember the Tech Bubble in 1999 and the rebound 12 years ago, from March of 2009. Both of those created rampant speculation, which we see today in certain growth stocks, cryptocurrency, and in the options market. Have we not learned the painful lessons of previous day-traders and those who gambled on stocks? Recently, individual investors have been asking me about trading options, Penny Stocks, and day trading stocks with the money they have set aside for a house down payment in one year.

Even as Vanguard is lowering its 10 year expected returns, people are getting greedy, with the fear of missing out on their chance to get rich. They know someone who got lucky over the past year and made a great trade. The lesson from the past is that everyone is a genius in a Bull Market. You could do no wrong in the past year, as long as you did something. Things won’t always be that easy, and that’s why you need a plan. Please make your investment choices about the next 10 years, and not the next 10 hours or 10 days.

Where to Invest $5,466 a Month

Posted On February 5, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning /

Why should you invest $5,466 a month? Why that very odd number? Well, at an 8% hypothetical return, investing $5,466 a month will get you to $1 million in 10 years. That’s what we are going to explore today and it is very possible for many professional couples to save this much.

Last week, we looked at where to invest $1,000 a month. That’s a reasonable goal for many people, a 10% savings rate for a couple making $120,000 or 15% for an individual making $80,000. And while saving $1,000 a month may be okay, it will take decades to amass enough for retirement. If you want to accelerate the process or aim for a higher goal, you have to save more.

Saving $5,466 a month is $65,592 a year. For a couple making $200,000, that represents saving 33% of your income. That’s challenging, but not impossible. After all, there are many families who get by with making less than $134,000.

There are many different ways you could invest $5,466 a month, but I’m going to focus on adding tax benefits both in the present and future. Let’s get right to it!

Retirement Accounts

Maximize 401(k), $1,625 a month each. That will get you to the 401(k) annual contribution limit of $19,500. It is surprising to me how many people don’t do this. For a couple, that is $3,250, more than half our goal to invest $5,466 a month.
Company match, $416 a month each. Many companies match 5% of your salary to your 401(k). For an employee making $100,000 a year, that equals $416 a month. I am assuming this couple each makes $100,000. For two, that’s $832 a month. Added to your 401(k) contributions and we are now at $4,082 a month.
Backdoor Roth, $500 a month each. At $200,000 for a couple, you make too much to contribute to a Roth IRA. However, you may still be able to make Backdoor Contributions to a Roth IRA, for $6,000 a year or $500 a month each. Added to 1 and 2 above and your monthly total is $5,082. We only need to find another $384 to invest a month to reach the goal of $5,466.

Additional Places to Invest

Health Savings Account (HSA), $600 a month. If you’re a participant in an eligible family plan, you can contribute $7,200 a year to an HSA. That could be up to $600 a month, and that is a pre-tax contribution!
529 Plan, $1,250 a month. If you are saving for a child’s future college expenses, you could contribute to a 529 College Savings Plan. A 529 Plan grows tax-free for qualified higher education expenses. Most parents choose to stay under the gift-tax exclusion of $15,000 a year per child, which is $1,250/month.
Taxable Account, $ unlimited. You can also contribute to a taxable account. And while you will have to pay taxes on capital gains, dividends, and interest, we can make these accounts relatively tax efficient.

Other Notes

Tax Savings. While trying to invest $5,466 a month is a lot, you will be helped by the tax savings. A couple making $200,000 a year (gross) will have just entered the 24% Federal tax bracket after the Standard Deduction of $25,100 (2021). Some of your tax deductible contributions will be at 24%, but most will be at 22%. Using just 22%, your joint $39,000 in 401(k) contributions will save you $8,580 in taxes. That is $715 a month back in your pocket. Add in $7,200 to an HSA and save another $1,584 in taxes ($132 a month).
Catch-up Contributions. If you are over age 50, you can contribute more to your 401(k) and Roth IRA accounts. There are also catch-up contributions for an HSA if age 55 or older.

I wish more people had the goal of becoming a Millionaire in 10 Years. We cannot control the market, but we can do our part and do the savings. At an 8% hypothetical return, starting to invest $5,466 a month can put you on track to $1 million in a decade. And if you already have $1 million, saving $5,466 for another 10 years would get you to $3.2 million.

For couples making over $200,000, can you afford to invest $5,466 a month? Can you afford not to? Planning is the process of establishing goals and then creating the roadmap to get you there. If you’re ready to create your own roadmap, give me a call.

Where to Invest $1,000 a Month

Posted On February 1, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Financial Planning /

Many investors wonder where they should invest $1,000 a month. Maybe they’re starting out from scratch. Or maybe they have been doing a 401(k) for years and have additional cash they want to invest.

You’ve paid off your credit cards and have an emergency fund with three to six months of expenses. You’ve got a good paycheck, but it all seems to disappear. Unfortunately, many Americans remain on this paycheck to paycheck treadmill, even if they have a decent income. What breaks this cycle is establishing monthly automatic contributions. Make investing automatic and you will adjust your other spending. And then when you do get a raise, aim to increase your saving, not your spending.

Let’s consider a few ways to invest $1,000 a month. I’ll go into some detail in this first scenario and then give a few variations.

Married with Children

With many couples, one has a good retirement plan at work, but the other spouse does not. For example, maybe they’re self-employed, work part-time, or are a stay at home parent. They’ve got two kids and want to make sure their kids can go to college some day, too.

$500 a month into a Roth IRA. The annual contribution limit is $6,000, which is $500 a month. At an 8% hypothetical return, you would have $745,179 in this Roth IRA after 30 years. And that would be available tax-free! If you had this same amount in a 401(k) and had to pay 22% income tax, you’d be facing a $163,939 tax bill. That’s the amazing tax savings of a Roth IRA.
$450 into 529 College Savings Plans. Put in $225 a month for each kid for college. Like a Roth IRA, a 529 Plan offers tax-free growth, provided the money is used on qualified higher education expenses. At an 8% hypothetical return, you would accumulate $41,162 for your 8-year old to go to college in 10 years. And you’d have $77,858 in 15 years for your 3-year old. (What if one kid doesn’t go to college? Switch the beneficiary to the other child. 529 Details here.)
$50 a month into a 20-year term life insurance policy. For most young families, some life insurance is important and I believe term life is a great solution. For a 38-year old male, we can get a $1 million Term policy for as low as $42 a month if they are in excellent health. Contact me for details.

With their $1,000 a month, this family is on their way to potentially having:

$745,000 in tax-free money for retirement in 30 years
$119,000 towards their kids’ college
A $1 million life insurance policy if something should happen to Dad

Double Income No Kids

$500 a month to two Roth IRAs. Don’t need a 529 Plan or life insurance? You can both do Roth IRAs at $500 a month each. Roth eligibility rules are based on joint income, so if one spouse can contribute, both can. After 30 years at our hypothetical 8%, you’d have almost $1.5 million in two Roth IRAs. That’s the incredible power of compound interest! (Make too much for a Roth IRA? Consider the Backdoor Roth Contribution.)

Self-Employed

$500 a month into a Traditional IRA. Get a tax-deduction for this contribution. However, if you or your spouse are eligible for a retirement plan at work, income limits apply.
$500 into a SEP-IRA. This is also tax-deductible for self-employed individuals. You can do both a SEP and a Traditional or Roth IRA. Since the SEP has much higher contribution limits than a Traditional IRA, why not just put the $1,000 a month into the SEP? The SEP may reduce your QBI Deduction for the Self-Employed.

Invest $1,000 a Month

There are lots of smart ways to invest $1,000 a month. We can help you sort through your options and get started. The Roth IRA offers tax-free growth, whereas the Traditional IRA or SEP-IRA offers an upfront tax deduction. For many parents, you may want to invest some of your $1,000 a month in a 529 College Savings Plan. Term Life Insurance could be a piece of the pie, too.

Another option would be to contribute to a Health Savings Account, or HSA. For 2021, you can contribute up to $300 a month ($3,600 a year) into your HSA, if eligible. This is a tax-deductible contribution and can be withdrawn tax-free for qualified medical expenses in the future. If you have family coverage, the HSA contribution limit doubles to $7,200 a year ($600 a month).

Most people don’t feel like they have an “extra” $1,000 every month. That’s okay. You can start with less, even just $50 a month. Most importantly, just get started. Then, you can gradually increase your monthly contributions over time. Once you get to $1,000 a month, you can go up from there! The more you save and invest, the faster you can reach your financial goals.

Investment Themes for 2021

Posted On January 10, 2021 By Scott Stratton, CFP(R), CFA In Portfolio Management /

Today we are going to discuss our top Investment Themes for 2021. I’ve stated that predictions are generally worthless, and 2020 certainly proved this point. 12 months ago, no one anticipated the massive impact of the Coronavirus. And the lightning speed of the stock market recovery remains shocking.

From its highs in February, US Stocks fell 35% to March 23. The recovery saw a 65% rally, with the S&P 500 Index ending the year up 17.6%. It was a mind-boggling year for investors, but I think we can count our blessings. This was the fastest Bear Market and recovery in history. Compared to the previous two Crashes, investors felt compelled to stay the course this year. And this proved wise.

(Here’s what I wrote to investors on March 21: Stock Crash Pattern.)

So, where do we go from here? Will 2021 unwind all the gains of 2020? My philosophy remains that we do not need to predict market movements or time the market to be successful. As a long-term investor, my approach to tactical investing is based on over-rebalancing. Think of rebalancing – trimming categories which rose (and became expensive) and adding to what became cheap. We overweight the assets which are cheaper.

We remain fully invested in our target allocation, but the weighting of funds can change from year to year. In some years, we own assets which lag other categories. That’s okay. That’s part of being a diversified investor. We want to avoid chasing performance.

Trades for 2021

US large cap growth has become very expensive. For 2021, we are shifting some of our large cap growth to a mid cap growth fund. The valuations there are not as elevated.
US small cap appears to have turned. Q4 of 2020 was the best quarter for small cap in 30 years. We added to small cap in our Growth and Aggressive models.
Emerging Markets have a high expected long-term return. We remain overweight in EM.
Value stocks lagged growth names again in 2020. (Growth stocks performance was highly concentrated in a small number of tech stocks such as Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla.) We are committed to our Value Funds and believe that they are compelling today.
Bond yields fell in 2020 to all-time lows. The US Aggregate Bond Index had a return of 7.4%, but most of that was from prices increasing. Less than 2% came from yield. So, we finished 2020 with terrible yields – less than 1% on a 10-year Treasury bond.
Yields were up in the first week of 2021, and bond investors are seeing falling prices. We are positioned towards the short-end of the yield curve and want to avoid chasing high yield today.
Fixed Annuities remain a good substitute for CDs and Bonds for investors who don’t need liquidity. We can get a 5-year annuity at 3.0%.
There are relative values within municipal bonds and Emerging Markets debt. Other than that, we expect very low returns from bonds. Own them for diversification. They provide ballast if your stocks are down and give you the ability to rebalance.
We trimmed some short-term bonds and added to Preferred Stocks. Although many are priced at par today, we can get yields of 4-6%. This is an attractive middle ground between the volatility of stocks and the 0-1% yields of bonds.
Both stocks and bonds are at all-time highs right now, and that makes alternatives compelling. In addition to Preferred Stocks, we have positions in Convertible Bonds and a Hedge Fund Strategy mutual fund.

Adding Value

We certainly hope markets will rise in 2021, but there’s no guarantee that will happen. I can say that we added value in 2020 in three other ways:

In March, we harvested losses in taxable accounts. For example, we sold one large cap ETF and immediately replaced it with a different large cap ETF. Losses will offset capital gains distributions and will carry forward indefinitely.
We rebalanced in March, trimming bonds and buying stock ETFs which were down. These trades proved profitable, although they didn’t feel so good when the market was crashing.
We stayed the course throughout the year. Selling during a panic like March would have been disastrous. We believe that planning and behavior are fundamental to success.

Our investment themes for 2021 are not predictions. We can’t control what the market will do. Our focus is to think long-term, stay diversified, and keep costs and taxes down. Still, our portfolio models are not static. We make changes to the weightings of our Core positions based on their relative valuations. And we add or remove Satellite positions that are attractive for the current environment.

Investments are a tool to grow your wealth and achieve your financial and life goals. While I enjoy discussing investments, more of my conversations with clients are around their objectives and making sure they are on track. And that’s how it should be.

Behind the scenes, a lot of research, thought, and analysis goes into our investment management decisions. If you’d like to ask about your portfolio and how we invest, please give me a call.